中资境外收购可能退潮

In mid-December, Chinese conglomerate Fosun International announced the sale of its casualty insurance unit Ironshore to Liberty Mutual for nearly $3bn. That same week, a team of Anbang Insurance staffers flew to Seoul from the group’s Fifth Avenue building in New York, in connection with its planned purchase of two insurance companies in South Korea.

去年12月中旬，中国企业集团复星国际(Fosun International)宣布以近30亿美元把旗下意外保险部门Ironshore出售给美国保险商Liberty Mutual。同一周，安邦保险(Anbang Insurance)的一个团队从其位于纽约第五大道的办公楼出发，前往首尔安排收购韩国两家保险公司的事宜。

These two insurers spent much of last year scouring the world for potential targets and were among the most aggressive purchasers. They provided rescue capital to troubled financial firms in Europe and scooped up real estate and other investments in the US and Asia. They were among the contributors to the $225bn in Chinese offshore acquisitions announced last year, according to data from Dealogic.

去年，这两家保险公司都花了很多时间在世界各地物色潜在收购目标，也都跻身于收购胃口最大的买家之列。他们为欧洲陷入困境的金融公司提供了救援资金，并在美国和亚洲买入了房地产和其他投资。根据Dealogic的数据，他们是去年宣布的2250亿美元中资海外收购的重大贡献者。

But a combination of strictures from mainland regulators and internal pressures from within for many firms, including Anbang and Fosun, may mean that China’s voracious appetite for overseas assets is about to be curbed.

但是，来自国内监管机构的束缚，加上许多公司(包括安邦和复星)的内部压力，可能意味着中国对海外资产的旺盛胃口即将被遏制。

Regulators now say that any deal with a price tag of more than $5m needs approval; while big strategic acquisitions are likely to receive the nod acquisitions of noncore assets, such as real estate, are not. Meanwhile, the slide in the renminbi, which makes diversification offshore more attractive, also makes deals increasingly expensive.

如今监管机构表示，规模超过500万美元的任何交易都需要批准;大型战略性的收购很可能得到放行，而对房地产等非核心资产的收购可能通不过。另一方面，人民币的贬值在使海外多元化变得更具吸引力的同时，也使交易越来越昂贵。

The shift away from acquisitions is likely to be particularly pronounced among Chinese insurers, and that will have an impact beyond China. Not only have the country’s insurers been among the highest (or only) bidders for some global assets, they are also an important source of funds for major pools of money outside China.

收购止步的趋势很可能在中国保险企业身上表现得尤为明显，而其影响将波及中国以外。中国保险商近年不仅跻身于某些全球资产的出价最高(或者唯一的)投标者之列，也是中国境外大型资金池的重要出资来源。

In the past, for example, mainland insurance companies have written big cheques to private equity firms like Blackstone. They were attracted by promises of double digit returns because it is just as hard for insurers in China as elsewhere to earn the big returns their clients want.

例如，过去中国保险公司曾向黑石(Blackstone)等私人股本公司开出大额支票。它们被两位数回报的前景所吸引，因为它们与其他地区的保险公司一样，难以赚到客户所希望的丰厚回报。

Until recently, many analysts expected Chinese insurers to increase their offshore activity.

直到最近，许多分析师仍预计中国保险公司增加其海外交易活动。

“More assets are expected to flow overseas as Chinese insurers see a growing need for better returns outside their domestic market,” Boston-based consultancy Cerulli Associates noted in a report just weeks ago.

“由于中国保险公司日益需要在本国市场以外获得更好的回报，预计更多资产将流向海外，”波士顿咨询公司Cerulli Associates在几周前的一份报告中指出。

“A fall in interest rates will inevitably have an impact on their investment income and will push insurers to deploy assets more efficiently by diversifying their sources of returns, including overseas. Investments in the ‘others’ category — which includes listed and unlisted long-term equity investments, bank wealth management products, trusts, private equity, venture capital, loans and real estate — rose from 23.7 per cent in 2014 to 34.2 per cent in June 2016.”

“利率下降将不可避免地对它们的投资收入产生影响，并且将推动保险商以更高效率部署资产，实现回报来源多元化，包括海外来源。‘其他’类别投资——包括上市和非上市公司的长期股权投资、银行理财产品、信托、私募股权、风险投资、贷款和房地产——已从2014年的23.7%上升到2016年6月的34.2%。”

Fitch Ratings, meanwhile, is worried about the overall health of Chinese insurers, which have largely been overlooked amid concerns about the country’s banks. Its analysts noted that “the insurers have shifted to investing in riskier assets to sustain investment yields. This makes their credit profiles more vulnerable to unfavourable capital market fluctuations and potential credit-quality deteriorations amid an economic slowdown”.

与此同时，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)对中国保险行业的整体健康感到担心，在各方担忧中国银行业之际，保险公司在很大程度上被忽视了。惠誉分析师指出，“保险公司已转而投资于风险更高的资产，以维持投资收益率。这使得它们的信用状况更容易受到资本市场负面波动、以及经济增长放缓时信用质量可能恶化的冲击”。

Fosun, which is listed in Hong Kong, is starting to respond to investor concerns that it has too much leverage. Moody’s analysts see the sale of Ironshore, which the company bought in 2015, as one clear example.

在香港上市的复星开始回应投资者对其杠杆过高的担忧。穆迪(Moody's)的分析师们把复星卖掉其在2015年收购的Ironshore视为一个清楚的例子。

“Fosun slowed its pace of overseas expansion in 2016 and management has indicated its commitment to improve the company’s financial profile and focus on integrating previously acquired businesses,” the analysts noted. “The cash proceeds . . . will help improve its weak liquidity profile.”

“复星在2016年放慢了海外扩张的步伐，其管理层表示将致力于改善公司的财务状况，并专注于整合以前收购的业务，”这些分析师指出。“(出售资产的)现金所得……将有助于改善其流动性较弱的状况。”

Anbang, which does not have an offshore equity listing, has not sold any large overseas assets so far. People briefed on its plans said it would probably not proceed with an international bond offer after US rating agencies suggested that it was likely to receive a non-investment grade rating.

未在海外上市的安邦，迄今没有出售任何大型海外资产。听取了该公司计划简报的人士表示，在美国评级机构暗示安邦可能获得非投资级评级后，该公司很可能不会到国际市场上发行债券。

Without easy access to offshore funds, and facing tighter rules at home, Anbang may also have trouble finding the financing it needs to complete some of the overseas acquisitions it has already agreed. That in turn would crimp its ability to buy more.

如果不能方便地获得离岸基金，同时在国内面临更严格的规则，安邦甚至可能难以找到完成一些已达成的海外收购所需要的融资。这进而会削弱安邦收购更多资产的能力。

In recent years, bankers with assets to sell have often counted on bidders from China to help push up the price. With commodity prices subdued, and the US focused inward, it is not clear who will take their place.

近年来，有资产代售的银行家经常指望来自中国的竞标企业帮助推高价格。鉴于大宗商品价格较低，同时美国把目光转向国内，尚不清楚谁将取代它们的地位。