美股牛派人士不惧高估值
在股市不断攀升七年后，投资者在去年11月找到了一个买股票的新理由：唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)令人震惊的获选。
One oft-repeated anecdote is how the billionaire investor Carl Icahn left Mr Trump’s victory party to buy US stocks. A few days later Stanley Druckenmiller, who earlier in the year told a conference for fellow hedge fund managers to “get out of the stock market”, announced he had sold all of his gold on election night and liked sectors of the stock market tied to economic growth.
被再三提及的轶事之一，就是亿万富翁投资者卡尔•伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)如何离开特朗普的胜利阵营去购买美国股票。几天后，斯坦利•德鲁肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller)宣布他已经在大选之夜卖掉了手上所有黄金，并看好与经济增长挂钩的股票市场板块，而去年早些时候他曾在一次对冲基金经理会议上号召“离开股市”。
Republican control of the executive and legislative branches of the Federal government will mean tax cuts, infrastructure spending and higher interest rates, in the snap market assessment of a jumble of campaign promises and nominations set to produce the richest cabinet in history.
共和党对联邦政府行政和立法部门的掌控，将意味着减税、基础设施支出以及利率上调，与此同时，市场在对特朗普的一系列竞选承诺和任命提名进行快速评估，这些提名将产生有史以来最富有的内阁。
The shift sparked one of the biggest post-election rallies since at least 1952, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 of small capitalisation stocks have all hit fresh highs since November 8.
根据Stock Trader’s Almanac的数据，投资者态度转变激发了至少是1952年以来最大的市场反弹。标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)、道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)以及小盘股罗素2000指数(Russell 2000)均在11月8日后创下新高。
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, meanwhile, jumped from a low of 1.32 per cent in July to more than 2.5 per cent, as bond investors contemplate faster economic growth and higher rates ahead.
与此同时，由于债券投资者预计未来经济增长加速、利率升高，10年期美国国债收益率从7月1.32%的低点跳升至2.5%以上。
Yet is it too much, too soon, for a stock market many had judged to be expensive? 但是，对于一个曾被很多人判定估值过高的股市来说，这是否太过而且为时过早呢?
“We are cautious because gains have come so fast. In the first 100 days, will we have a clear plan for all the chatter on fiscal spending and tax cuts? If we don’t, the market will get skittish,” says David Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors.
道富环球投资管理有限公司(State Street Global Advisors)交易所交易基金(ETF)和共同基金研究主管大卫•马扎(David Mazza)表示：“我们谨慎是因为收益来得太快。我们能否在头一百天里，就围绕财政支出和税收减免的所有争论形成一个清晰的计划?如果我们做不到，市场将出现不安情绪。”
The question does not just matter for US investors. Japan’s Topix index has matched the post-election leap of the Russell 2000, as investors anticipate a strong dollar will boost the country’s exporters.
这个问题不仅影响到美国投资者。日本的东证指数(Topix)与罗素2000指数一样在美国大选后出现暴涨，投资者预计美元走强将提振日本的出口商。
Meanwhile, emerging markets have slumped. A strong dollar makes it harder for developing countries and companies to service hard currency debts, and has tended to be associated with weaker prices for commodity exports.
与此同时，新兴市场出现下滑。强劲的美元令发展中国家和企业更难以偿还美元债务，而且往往与大宗商品出口价格走弱相关联。
Then there is Mr Trump’s antitrade rhetoric. David Donabedian, chief investment officer at Atlantic Trust, says: “There are some unquantifiable risks that may come out of the new administration that are not so positive. The whole issue of trade policy, protectionism and diplomatic policy toward China is a huge deal and a complete unknown at this point.”
然后是特朗普的反贸易言论。Atlantic Trust首席投资官大卫•多纳伯迪安(David Donabedian)表示：“新政府可能带来一些不那么积极的、无法量化的风险。贸易政策、保护主义和对华外交政策的整个问题事关重大，而且眼下还完全未知。”
Protectionism, even if it does not impede growth, also suggests a potential shift in the economy which highlights what may be an under-appreciated aspect of the stock market boom: most US-listed companies have not been thriving.
保护主义——即使不会阻碍增长——也暗示了美国经济的潜在转变，这突出了美国股市繁荣中一个可能未得到充分认识的问题：大多数美国上市公司并不兴旺。
“The average profitability of the average listed business is quite poor,” says Andrew Lapthorne, quantitative strategist for Société Générale.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)量化策略师安德鲁•拉普索恩(Andrew Lapthorne)表示：“上市公司的平均盈利能力相当差。”
Performance of the S&P 500 is dominated by about 100 very large companies. When profits are set against the value of a company’s assets, the so-called return on equity for the top five listed companies in each industry is double that of the rest (see chart).
标普500的表现由约100家大企业主导。各行业前五大上市公司的股本回报率是剩余企业的两倍(见图表)。
In a sense the effect is similar to that often said to have propelled Mr Trump into office, a great number of Americans left behind by globalisation while the elite has thrived. It may be as true for businesses as it is for Midwestern metalworkers.
从某种意义上说，这种情况类似于经常被说成推动特朗普上任的因素——大量的美国人被全球化甩在后面，精英们却飞黄腾达。不论是企业，还是中西部金属工人，这一点可能都成立。
Corporate indebtedness has also been rising, which impacts valuations. A company’s enterprise value includes both its net debt and its market capitalisation, and this figure can then be compared to a measure of profits known as ebitda — earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
企业债务也在不断攀升，从而影响到估值。一家公司的企业价值(EV)包括其净负债和市值，可以将其与利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利(EBITDA)进行比较。
On such an EV/ebitda basis, “the US stock market has only been this expensive during three or four months of the tech bubble”, says Mr Lapthorne.
基于EV/ebitda比值，拉普索恩表示：“美国股市的估值只有在科技泡沫中的三、四个月时间里这么高过。”
What many investors focus on is earnings growth, which quietly resumed in the third quarter after a five-quarter streak of declines. Profit growth provides a fundamental underpinning to rising stock markets, and Wall Street analysts may soon start raising estimates for 2017 to account for fiscal stimulus.
许多投资者关注的是盈利增长，在经历连续五个季度下跌后，盈利增长于去年第三季度悄然恢复。利润增长为股市上扬提供了根本支撑，华尔街分析师在分析财政刺激时可能很快会开始上调有关2017年的预期。
Still, more increases to interest rates are expected from the Federal Reserve next year, which at the very least is likely to support the US currency. “The earnings recession has ended but guess what? We are going to start to hear from companies hurt by the stronger dollar,” Mr Mazza says.
不过，预计美联储(Fed)今年将进行更多加息，这至少很有可能对美元构成支撑。马扎说：“盈利衰退已经结束，但你猜怎么着?我们将开始听到企业受美元走强的损害。”
And earnings growth is even more pressing to justify valuations in an environment of higher interest rates, particularly when the assumption appears to be Mr Trump can make good on his pledge of stimulative policy.
在利率上升的环境下，要想证明估值合理，盈利增长将更加紧迫，尤其是假设特朗普能够兑现刺激政策的承诺。
BlackRock, for example, remains cautious. “It does feel that there is a lot of work that needs to be done in the first half of 2017 to meet current expectations,” says Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock. “The market has gotten a little excited — there is probably room for a little consolidation.”
比如贝莱德(BlackRock)就持谨慎态度。贝莱德首席股票策略师凯特•摩尔(Kate Moore)表示：“我确实感到，要想达到当前预期，2017年上半年需要完成很多工作。市场已经有点兴奋了，或许有些许调整的空间。”
