FT社评：“美国优先”的贸易保护主义谬论

Before even taking up residence in the Oval Office, Donald Trump has had US companies scurrying to avoid his capricious wrath. This week it was the turn of Ford, which cancelled a new $1.6bn car plant in Mexico, instead increasing production in Michigan.

甚至尚未入主白宫椭圆形办公室(Oval Office)，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就已经让美国企业开始慌忙地避免激起他反复无常的暴怒了。本周轮到福特(Ford)了，该公司取消了斥资16亿美元在墨西哥建设新汽车厂的计划，取而代之的是在密歇根扩大生产。

The announcement, which followed a tweet from Mr Trump on Tuesday threatening Ford’s rival GM with a “big border tax” for manufacturing abroad, may have been good public relations. Yet it is profoundly wrong-headed that the US president-elect, armed with a protectionist mindset, appears to be conducting industrial policy by bullying individual companies on Twitter.

此前，特朗普于周二在Twitter上发文威胁福特的竞争对手通用汽车(GM)称，将对海外生产征收“高额的边境税”。福特此次声明可能有利于公共关系。不过，拥有保护主义思维的美国当选总统似乎是在通过在Twitter上欺凌个别企业来实施产业政策，这种做法大错特错。

If he persists with this kind of intervention, Mr Trump will not help to boost employment in America. Instead, he will instil a fear of political meddling among business leaders, disrupt efficient international supply chains and risk stoking a protectionist and populist backlash among America’s trading partners.

如果特朗普坚持这种干预，他将无助于促进美国就业。相反，他将在商业领袖中灌输对政治干预的恐惧心理，扰乱高效的国际供应链，并可能激起美国贸易伙伴的保护主义和民粹主义反弹。

Mr Trump has frequently threatened to impose hefty tariffs on specific companies that move production overseas and sell their products back into the US. Such taxes would be illegal under just about any trade deal imaginable, including World Trade Organisation law and within the North American Free Trade Agreement, but Ford has evidently decided that prudence dictates a change in plans.

特朗普频繁威胁要向把生产迁往海外、再把产品销往国内的特定企业征收高额关税。几乎在任何可以想象的贸易协定下——包括在世界贸易组织(WTO)法规和《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)框架下——此类关税都是不合法的，但福特显然决定，出于审慎最好还是改变计划。

Whether Mr Trump’s interventions on trade become more systematic, or stay at this somewhat piecemeal level, remains to be seen. Certainly, he is promising a far-reaching assault on the framework of trade governance as we know it, threatening a renegotiation of Nafta and huge tariffs on imports from China if he perceives its currency to be undervalued. Robert Lighthizer, Mr Trump’s choice for US trade representative, though an accomplished trade attorney and former deputy USTR under Ronald Reagan, is on the protectionist end of the spectrum.

特朗普对贸易的干预是会变得更加系统化、还是维持在目前这种零敲碎打的水平，仍有待观察。当然，他很可能对我们所熟知的贸易治理框架发起广泛攻击，他威胁要对NAFTA进行重新谈判，同时威胁如果他认为人民币被低估，就要对中国商品征收高额进口关税。特朗普选择的美国贸易代表罗伯特•莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)是极端的保护主义者，尽管他是一名资深的贸易律师并曾在罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)政府内担任美国副贸易代表。

But it is also possible that Mr Trump will not follow through such policies to their conclusion. His strategy may simply be to bounce individual businesses into making eye-catching investment decisions that will win the White House a news cycle.

但特朗普也可能不会从始至终地贯彻这类政策。他的策略或许只是迫使个别企业做出引人注目的投资决定，让白宫占据新闻报道的头条。

That would at least be preferable to starting an all-out global trade war. Yet apart from the gross inefficiency and unfairness of singling out companies and subjecting them to the business strategy equivalent of a shakedown, such a campaign will undoubtedly shroud business decisions across America in uncertainty, spreading fear of sudden subjection to threats and ultimatums from the White House.

这至少好过发动一场全面的全球贸易战。不过，暂且不说挑出个别企业并如勒索一般迫使其调整商业战略的无效率和不公平，这类行动无疑将使整个美国的商业决策笼罩在不确定性的阴云下，使得人们对突然遭受白宫威胁和最后通牒的恐惧蔓延。

It will also encourage other countries to follow suit. As it happens, Mexico has built up a world-class car export industry, much of which would probably survive a campaign of protectionism from north of the border. But mercantilist meddling from the US will amplify voices of populist economic policies in Mexico and elsewhere.

这也将鼓励其他国家效仿。恰巧，墨西哥已经建立起了世界一流的汽车出口行业，其中的大部分可能会熬过来自边境北方的保护主义运动。但美国的重商主义干涉，将在墨西哥及其他地区扩大民粹主义经济政策的声音。

Car manufacturers, along with many other industries, have built up complex supply chains snaking across different economies. Forcing a particular part of such a process to take place in one country will make little long-term difference to employment there. Instead, it will decrease efficiency and give that country a reputation as a fickle trading partner, discouraging investment.

和其他很多行业一样，汽车制造商已经建立起分散在各个不同经济体中的复杂供应链。强迫将此类供应链的特定环节限制在某个国家，不会对那里的就业带来多少长期影响。相反，这会降低效率，并使那个国家得到善变的贸易伙伴的名声，从而抑制投资。

With Ford’s decision this week, Mr Trump has scored a public relations victory. But his approach is sure, if not actually to provoke trade conflicts, to introduce random and destructive political risk into the US economy. An America First trade policy that blindly follows zero-sum mercantilism will leave all countries worse off.

通过福特本周作出的决定，特朗普实现了一次公共关系方面的胜利。但就算不真的引发贸易冲突，他的做法也必然会给美国经济引入随机并具有破坏性的政治风险。盲目遵循零和博弈重商主义的“美国优先”(America First)贸易政策，将对所有国家造成损害。