Lex专栏：中国应继续削减钢材产能

A year ago you could not give steel mills away. Well, almost. Consider Tata Steel, the Indian owner of a number of then lossmaking steel plants in the UK. It decided it wanted out at any price. One reason: the world’s largest producer, China, was increasing steel exports, depressing prices. Fast forward to this year and steel has moved to portfolio managers’ buy lists.

一年前，你想脱手钢厂都无人接盘。或者说，几乎是这样吧。彼时在英国拥有多家亏损钢厂的塔塔钢铁(Tata Steel)例外。当时，塔塔钢铁决定不惜任何代价让自己抽身。原因之一是：当时世界上最大钢材生产国中国在增加钢材出口，压低钢材价格。把时间快进到今年，钢材已进入投资组合经理的购买清单。

Whereas China took the blame before, it gets credit for a steel price boom. Its steelmakers cut output, though only by necessity. Chinese mills in the fourth quarter of last year lost money on every tonne of commodity steel produced. Hot rolled coil lost the average plant Rmb200 ($29) a tonne. Mills stopped making steel. Roughly twice as much blast furnace capacity (150m tonnes) underwent maintenance during the first quarter of 2016 compared with 2015, notes Credit Suisse, thereby reducing supply.

虽然之前钢价走低被怪到中国头上，但此轮钢价上涨中国却是功臣。中国钢铁企业削减了产能——虽然只是迫不得已。去年第四季度，中国钢厂每生产一吨钢材都要赔钱。热轧卷板平均每吨让钢厂亏损200元人民币(合29美元)。许多钢厂停止产钢。瑞信(Credit Suisse)指出，2016年第一季度，处于停产维护状态的高炉产能(1.5亿吨)约为2015年的两倍，因而导致供应减少。

Meanwhile, demand had improved. During late 2015, Beijing opened its wallet for new, steel-hungry infrastructure projects to boost the flagging economy. In renminbi terms this spending had dipped year on year in the first half of 2015, according to CEIC data. By the beginning of 2016 a surge in infrastructure spend had begun, up as much as 40 per cent from the previous year. More demand with reduced capacity lifted local prices; exports slowed. Dull metal suddenly shone, as profit per tonne jumped to Rmb1,000. Chinese steelmaker Maanshan’s shares are up by roughly half this year. In Europe, shares in Amsterdam-listed producer ArcelorMittal have doubled.

与此同时，需求出现了改善。2015年底，中国政府开始向需要钢材的新基建项目放开资金，以提振增速下滑的经济。司尔亚司(CEIC)的数据显示，以人民币计算，2015年上半年的基建投入同比出现了下滑。到2016年初，基建投入已开始激增，较上年增加高达40%。产能减少、需求增加，导致本地价格上涨;出口放缓。麻雀突然变凤凰，每吨钢材的利润飙升至1000元人民币。中国钢铁制造商马鞍山钢铁(Maanshan Iron and Steel)的股价今年涨了约50%。在欧洲，阿姆斯特丹上市的钢铁制造商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)的股价已经翻倍。

Supply will make the big difference in 2017, less so demand. As public spending slows, private construction — from housing — is not likely to take up the slack. Beijing wants to cool an overheated housing market. The World Steel Association forecasts Chinese demand will fall 2 per cent. For China’s gift on steel to keep giving, Beijing needs to ensure that steel capacity keeps falling in the new year as well.

2017年，提振价格将要靠供应、而非需求。随着公共支出放缓，私营部门的房地产建设不大可能填补这一空缺。中国政府希望给过热的房地产市场降温。世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association)预测，中国的钢材需求将下降2%。要维持中国提振起来的钢材价格，中国政府还需确保在新的一年继续削减钢材产能。