Lex专栏：特朗普豪赌只会损害美台企业利益

Donald Trump reckons himself a master of the high-stakes gamble. Over the weekend, the US president-elect questioned whether his administration would respect the “One China” policy, by which the US acknowledges just one legitimate Chinese government. This prompted a robust response from Beijing. Any spat risks hurting Taiwan businesses — and US interests as badly.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)自认为是高风险赌博方面的高手。上周末，这位美国当选总统质疑，他领导的美国政府是否还要继续遵守“一个中国”政策，即美国只承认一个合法的中国政府。这激起了北京方面的强硬回应。中美间的任何龃龉都可能严重伤害台湾企业以及美国的利益。

Until Mr Trump’s victory in November, China’s government was accepted as the one that rules on the mainland. Earlier this month the president-elect broke with protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. On that occasion, China reacted with restraint, protesting directly to Washington. Like Mr Trump’s posturing, Beijing’s reaction has escalated. On Monday, China hit back, its foreign ministry denouncing Trump’s comments.

直至特朗普今年11月胜选，美方一直承认的是统治中国大陆的中国政府。本月早些时候，特朗普打破惯例，接听了台湾总统蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)打来的电话。那时，中方作出了克制的回应，直接向华盛顿表示抗议。与特朗普的再次表态一样，北京这一次的反应也已经升级。周一，中方进行了回击，中国外交部谴责了特朗普的言论。

US dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing runs deep. Over the years, as technology companies such as Intel and Dell have invested less in production, they have outsourced to Taiwanese manufacturers. Nor does their dependence stop at Taiwan’s shores. As relations between China and its “renegade province” have thawed, Taiwanese companies’ mainland-based facilities have grown. As a result Apple, dependent on the semiconductor maker TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn (listed in Taiwan as Hon Hai), relies on mainland China too. At end of 2015 three quarters of Foxconn’s fixed assets were across the straits.

美国对台湾制造业的依赖程度很深。多年来，由于英特尔(Intel)、戴尔(Dell)等科技公司在生产方面的投资减少，它们已将生产外包给台湾制造商。然而，美国企业依赖的不止是台湾。由于中国大陆与其“叛离省份”的关系已经解冻，台湾企业在中国大陆设立的工厂不断增多。结果是，依赖半导体制造商台积电(TSMC)和代工制造商富士康(Foxconn，在台湾上市名称为鸿海(Hon Hai))的苹果公司(Apple)也要依靠中国大陆。截至2015年底，富士康四分之三的固定资产都位于中国大陆。

Disrupting these operations would not be hard for China. Failing that, its government is a past master at mobilising public opinion against foreign companies, for misdeeds real or perceived. It is an unwise man who provokes such mobilisation.

干扰这些企业对于中国大陆并不难。即使不走这条路，煽动舆论反对外资企业——无论这些企业是真的行为不端，还是被这么认为——也是中国大陆政府所擅长的。只有不明智的人才会刺激这种煽动行为。

Perhaps Mr Trump believes Taiwan is expendable in his get-tough stance on China. Alternatively, he may think disrupting companies such as Foxconn will bring manufacturing home. In this game of chicken between China and Mr Trump, it is US companies that risk being run over.

或许特朗普认为在他对中国的强硬立场中，台湾是可以牺牲的。又或者，他可能认为干扰富士康等企业就可以将制造业带回美国。在中国与特朗普之间这场懦夫博弈中，被坑的可能是美国企业。