FT社评：卡斯特罗身后的美古关系

This time, the news of Fidel Castro’s death is true, rather than a product of wishful thinking. The Cuban revolutionary died on Friday. His legacy will be discussed in the days to come. Ironically, though, his passing is largely symbolic: Havana has prepared for this moment for years. Since he was stricken by a near-fatal illness a decade ago, his younger brother, Raúl Castro, 85, has been in charge.

这一次，菲德尔•卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)逝世的消息是真的，而不是一种一厢情愿的想象。上周五，这位古巴革命者逝世。在接下来的几天里，人们将就他身后留下的遗产开展讨论。不过，讽刺的是，他的逝世在很大程度上只具有象征意义：古巴政府已为这一刻准备了许多年。自十年前菲德尔患上一种近乎致命的疾病以来，他的弟弟、85岁的劳尔•卡斯特罗(Raúl Castro)一直在掌权。

Nonetheless, symbols are important. Over the past eight years, Raúl, spurred by the economic collapse of Cuba’s closest ally Venezuela, has led a modest programme of reforms to Cuba’s Soviet-style economy. He also welcomed Barack Obama to Havana earlier this year, a culmination of the US president’s efforts at rapprochement after half a century of mutual enmity. Fidel opposed both. Though retired, he was treated by hardliners as a court of appeal against domestic reforms. Even as a doddering invalid in a comfy track suit, he was a symbol for anyone in the US opposed to closer relations. Fidel’s death, therefore, increases the chances of change at the margin. It may give Raúl space to pursue the domestic reforms that Cuba so desperately needs. It also removes an emotional barrier to further US engagement.

不过，象征意义也十分重要。过去八年里，在古巴最亲密盟友委内瑞拉经济崩溃的刺激下，劳尔领导了对古巴苏联式经济的温和改革。今年早些时候，他还曾欢迎美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)到访哈瓦那，这是奥巴马恢复两国关系的努力的顶峰。此前，两国在长达半个世纪的时间里一直相互敌对。对上述两项举动，菲德尔都不支持。尽管他已经退休，古巴的强硬派人士依然把他当作反对国内改革的上诉法庭。即使他身穿舒适的运动服、拖着蹒跚的病弱之躯，对于美国任何反对拉近美古关系的人来说，他依然是一个象征符号。因此，菲德尔的逝世增大了古巴改革的可能性。它也许会为劳尔实施古巴急需的国内改革创造空间。它也消除了美国进一步加强对古关系的一大心理障碍。

Much depends on whether president-elect Donald Trump decides to work with or challenge communist Havana. Mr Trump sent mixed messages about Cuba during his campaign. At times he said he said he would continue Mr Obama’s policy of restoring diplomatic relations and loosening travel restrictions, although he would get “a better deal”. At other times he has said he would reverse the policy — easily done, as most of Mr Obama’s measures were executive decisions, reversible with the stroke of a pen (lifting the Cuban embargo, rather than relaxing it, is up to Congress).

未来美古关系在很大程度上取决于美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)是决定与共产主义的古巴政府合作还是对抗。在竞选期间，在古巴问题上特朗普传递出的信号并不一致。有时候特朗普表示，会继续实施奥巴马恢复对古外交关系、放宽旅游限制的政策——不过他会达成“更好的协议”。而在另外一些场合，特朗普还曾表示会撤销这一政策。这一点很容易做到，因为奥巴马的举措多数是行政决策，动动笔就可以将其撤销(不过，解除对古巴的禁运——而不是放宽——则要由美国国会决定)。

Mr Trump, who owes little to Cuban-American lawmakers such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio, an opponent in the Republican primaries, has given little indication as to which way he may go. He may pressure Havana for concessions — freedom for political prisoners or preferential access for US goods in the Cuban market — in order to show he is a strongman.

对于类似佛罗里达州参议员马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio，特朗普在共和党初选时的对手)这样的古巴裔美籍议员，特朗普并不亏欠什么。特朗普现在并未表现出会选择哪条政策路线的迹象。为了显示自己是个强势人物，他也许会向古巴政府施加压力迫使对方让步——释放政治犯或者让美国商品优先进入古巴市场。

Cuba is unlikely to give immediate reason for warmer relations. Retreating into the bunker is Havana’s usual response to uncertainty. A clampdown on dissent is likely. Amid a week of national mourning, the government has launched a campaign to have millions of Cubans sign a pledge to be faithful to Fidel’s “ideas and our socialism”. Further on, the socialist bureaucracy is inherently opposed to change. And should Raúl step down in 2018, as he has pledged, his children and in-laws could sustain the dynasty.

古巴不太可能立即提供美古关系转暖的理由。对于不确定的局面，古巴政府通常的反应方式是撤回堡垒中。古巴可能会出现对异见人士的打压。在为期一周的全国哀悼期间，古巴政府发起了一场运动，让成百上千万的古巴人签署承诺，发誓忠于菲德尔的“理念和我们的社会主义”。此外，这个社会主义的官僚体系天性反对变革。一旦2018年劳尔依照承诺下台，他的子女及其配偶可能会继续将这一王朝维持下去。

But Cuba — shorn of financial support from Venezuela — is posturing from a position of weakness. If Mr Trump really believes in “America first”, he will engage with Havana rather than retreat. It is in the US interest to compete with Russia and China in the Caribbean, and to allow US business entrée to Cuba. Cuba, which takes a hard line on drug trafficking and played a key role in getting Colombia’s Marxist rebels to lay down their guns, is a natural ally against terrorism. Continued rapprochement does not guarantee a happy end to Fidel’s rule but increases the chances of a soft landing.

不过，失去了委内瑞拉财政支持的古巴不论摆出什么姿态实际都处于弱势。如果特朗普真的相信“美国优先”，他会与古巴政府接触而不是后撤。在加勒比海地区与俄罗斯和中国竞争并允许美国企业进入古巴，符合美国的利益。古巴对毒品走私持强硬立场，还曾发挥关键作用让哥伦比亚的马克思主义叛军放下武器。它将是美国打击恐怖主义的天然盟友。双方继续和解虽然并不能确保菲德尔家族的统治以愉快的方式结束，却可以增大软着陆的可能性。

The alternative is to slam the door. That would only hamper, rather than speed, the limited but important changes taking place in Cuba. These have improved the lives of many Cubans and weakened the control of the state over their lives. For Fidel, reversing that progress would be a last victory from the grave.

另一个选择则是关上美古之间的大门。这么做只会阻碍、而不是加速古巴正在发生的有限而重要的改革。这些改革措施已改善了许多古巴人的生活，并削弱了政府对他们生活的控制。对菲德尔来说，如果这一变革进程逆转，那会是他在坟墓里的最后胜利。