默克尔是西方衣钵的继承人

Angela Merkel is Europe’s last leader standing. The German chancellor will soon announce she will be seeking a fourth term in next year’s election. Not so long ago it seemed that she might be unseated by the migrant crisis as Germany’s anti-immigrant populists — Alternative for Germany — took to the streets. Now, with a Trumpian storm rolling across the Atlantic, Germany, and Europe, seem unimaginable without her.

安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)是欧洲最后一位还站着的领导人。这位德国总理已宣布，她会寻求在明年选举中获得第四个总理任期。而不久之前，德国反移民的民粹主义者——德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)——走上街头时，她似乎可能因为移民危机下台。如今，随着一场特朗普风暴席卷大西洋对岸，没有默克尔的德国和欧洲似乎是不可想象的。

Ms Merkel’s carefully conditional reaction to Donald Trump’s victory voiced what most European leaders think but are too fearful to say about the US president-elect. Her words bear repetition. “Germany and the US are tied by values. Democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law and the dignity of humankind — independent of origin, skin colour, gender, sexual orientation or political views.” Berlin would work closely with the new administration, she said, “on the basis of those values”.

默克尔对唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜的有条件的谨慎反应，道出了大多数欧洲领导人心里所想、但不敢说出的对这位当选美国总统的看法。她的话值得重复。“德国和美国是通过价值观捆绑在一起的。民主、自由、尊重法治和人类尊严——无论出身、肤色、性别、性取向或政治观点如何。”她说，柏林方面将“在这些价值观的基础上”与美国新政府密切合作。

Visiting the German capital this week, I caught the mix of pain and resolve conveyed by the chancellor. Pain because Germany sees itself as the guardian of the postwar international order so disdained by Mr Trump. It has not forgotten what came before. And Ms Merkel, born in the then communist east, knows all about freedom. Resolve because this Germany and this chancellor will not pay fealty to the president if his agenda is written by white supremacists.

上周到访德国首都时，我感受到了这位总理传达出的一种混杂着悲伤与坚决的情绪。悲伤，是因为德国把自己视为遭特朗普蔑视的战后国际秩序的守卫者。德国没有忘记历史。而出生在当时共产主义东德的默克尔，理解有关自由的一切。坚决，是因为如果特朗普的议程是被白人至上主义者写就的话，现在的德国和这位总理将不会支持他。

It was left to Boris Johnson, Britain’s inestimably silly foreign secretary, to offer a counter view. Mr Trump is an opportunity, he boomed. The president-elect has promised to dissolve the transatlantic security relationship, strike a dirty deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and derail the global trading system. Yet, even as the geopolitical plates crash and grind, Mr Johnson declares all to be well: Mr Trump might favour Britain with a post-Brexit trade deal.

轮到极其幼稚的英国外交大臣鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)发表相反观点了。特朗普提供了一个机会，他大声说。这位当选总统承诺要解除跨大西洋安全关系，与俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)达成肮脏的协议，还要推翻全球贸易体系。然而，就在地缘政治板块发生碰撞和挤压时，约翰逊宣告一切都很好：特朗普或许会偏向英国，在英国脱欧之后跟英国签订一份贸易协议。

The less palatable strategic reality is that, as a European power with widely scattered global interests, Britain relies more than most on a rules-based order to underwrite its prosperity and keep the peace. Mr Trump says he has had enough of this “globalism”, and will replace it with “Americanism”. This at the moment Britain is marginalising itself in Europe.

不太容易让人接受的战略现实是，作为一个在全球具有广泛、分散的利益的欧洲强国，英国比大多数国家更依赖一个基于规则的秩序，来保障自己的繁荣与和平。特朗普表示，他已受够了这种“全球主义”，将用“美国主义”取而代之。而此刻英国正在欧洲把自己边缘化。

It was scarcely surprising then that Barack Obama chose Berlin for his farewell meeting with European leaders this week. Ms Merkel, the US president says, has been his “closest international partner”. François Hollande is also saying his goodbyes. So, too, Matteo Renzi and Theresa May. But these three are making up the numbers. The French president will soon be gone, the Italian prime minister faces his own populist revolt and the British premier has time for nothing besides the convulsions promised by Brexit.

难怪巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)上周把与欧洲领导人的告别会地点选在了柏林。这位美国总统表示，默克尔一直是他的“最亲密的国际合作伙伴”。弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)也在向奥巴马道别。马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)和特里萨•梅(Theresa May)也一样。但这三人是凑数的。法国总统不久后将卸任，意大利总理面临着本国的民粹主义反叛，英国首相没有时间处理除英国脱欧必定带来的震动之外的任何事情。

Publicly, Mr Obama has sought to offer reassurance. His successor will not abandon the Atlantic alliance, geopolitical realities will impose themselves, the US is unlikely to surrender leadership. So the story goes. Mr Trump’s disdain for Nato and his admiration for Mr Putin, however, have roots deeper than the election campaign. Ms Merkel — I watched her speaking to the German employers’ federation — is comfortable talking about the values that sustain our civilisation. Mr Trump does deals.

在公开场合，奥巴马一直寻求让大家放心。他的继任者将不会放弃大西洋同盟，地缘政治现实将自动施加影响，美国不太可能交出领导权。报道如是说。然而，特朗普对北约(Nato)的蔑视和对普京的钦佩，发端于总统竞选之前。默克尔——我见证了她对德国雇主协会发表讲话——坦然地谈论支撑我们的文明的那些价值观。而特朗普是做交易的。

The potential transatlantic collisions speak for themselves. The EU is preparing to renew the sanctions imposed on Mr Putin after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. Some members of the Union have never been comfortable with the commercial costs of the sanctions. Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, prefers to pay homage to Mr Putin. But Ms Merkel has marshalled the 28 behind a common position. To do otherwise would be to concede that, once again, Europe’s borders can be changed by force.

潜在的跨大西洋冲突是不言而喻的。在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚、入侵乌克兰东部之后，欧盟(EU)正准备对普京采取新的制裁。有些欧盟成员国一直对制裁的商业成本感到不舒服。匈牙利的威权总理欧尔班•维克托(Viktor Orban)更愿意向普京表示敬意。但默克尔统领欧盟28个成员国达成了一个共同立场。如若不然将意味着承认，欧洲的边界可以再度靠武力更改。

A deal between Messrs Trump and Putin to accept Moscow’s revanchism would at once overturn the security settlement that has prevailed since 1945 and point to a future in which Europe is divided again between competing spheres of influence. Mr Putin probably does not want to seize the Baltics, Georgia or Belarus. He does want to make sure that Russia’s neighbours act only with its permission. Where, in the long term, does this leave Poland, a nation that under its present, reactionary, leadership asks its western partners to underwrite its security even as it repudiates their democratic values?

如果特朗普与普京达成一项接受俄罗斯复仇行动的协议，将立即推翻自1945年以来占统治地位的安全安排，并指向一种欧洲在争夺势力范围中再次四分五裂的未来。普京很可能不想夺取波罗的海诸国、格鲁吉亚或者白俄罗斯。但他的确想要保证，俄罗斯的邻国仅在它的许可范围内采取行动。从长期看，这会将在当前极端保守领导人的治理下，一边否定西方伙伴国的民主价值观、一边要求它们为自己的安全背书的波兰引向何方?

Mr Trump will not get everything his own way. He has promised to tear up the UN agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme — a plan that would give hardliners in Tehran the go-ahead to resume efforts to secure a bomb. The president-elect should not expect European governments to follow suit if the US seeks to restore the sanctions regime. Nuclear non-proliferation matters to Europeans. Mr Trump is on record as saying he would be unfussed if Japan or South Korea decided to build their own bombs.

特朗普将不会每件事都如自己的心愿。他承诺撕毁限制伊朗核计划的联合国协议——该计划将放任伊朗国内的强硬派继续研发核弹。如果美国寻求恢复对伊朗制裁的话，这位当选总统不应指望欧洲各国政府跟随。核不扩散对欧洲国家很重要。而特朗普说过，如果日韩决定建造自己的核武器，他也不会感到担忧，这是有据可查的。

Europe is in a wait-and-see mode. How many of the campaign pledges will carry through into government? The choice looks to be one between a bad outcome and a very bad one. Europeans have struggled for some time to uphold their values against authoritarians without and populists within. The danger now comes from across the Atlantic. It falls to Ms Merkel to speak for what during the past seven decades we have known as the west.

欧洲目前正处于观望之中。特朗普在竞选时做出的承诺，有多少个将变成政府政策?这似乎是在一个坏结果和一个更坏的结果之间的选择。一段时间以来，欧洲国家一直在努力对抗国外的威权者和国内的民粹主义者，坚持自己的价值观。如今，危险来自大西洋对岸。默克尔有责任代表过去70年里我们所知道的那个西方发言。