华尔街将成为特朗普上台的赢家？

在智库Z/Yen上月公布的全球金融中心排行榜中，伦敦位居榜首，略微领先于纽约。

Little surprise there: London has led several league tables in recent years. But when Z/Yen publishes its index in a couple of years’ time — in a Trumpian world — there is a good chance those rankings will have changed.

这没有什么奇怪的：近些年，伦敦一直在多项类似榜单上占据榜首。但当Z/Yen几年后(在特朗普时代)发布这一排行榜时，排名顺序很可能将已发生改变。

For one point about last week’s US presidential election result is that Donald Trump’s policies are likely to make New York more attractive as a financial centre. And that could make London a relative loser — unless British authorities are ready to fight back.

美国大选结果的前景之一是，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的政策可能会让纽约成为更有吸引力的金融中心。这可能让伦敦成为相对的输家——除非英国当局做好还击的准备。

Why? The reason is not necessarily any deliberate “plan” Mr Trump holds for Wall Street; he does not seem to have one. He barely mentioned the financial sector on the campaign trail — and most bankers ignored him back. Indeed, the industry donated only $737,000 to him this year, compared with $78m for Hillary Clinton and $33m for Jeb Bush.

为何如此?原因不一定是他有任何刻意支持华尔街的“计划”;他似乎没有这样的计划。他在竞选过程中几乎没有提到过金融行业——反过来，大多数银行家也忽略了他。实际上，今年金融业对他的捐款仅为73.7万美元，对希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)的捐款则分别为7800万美元和3300万美元。

But what could raise New York’s status is a confluence of four crucial factors.

但是，可能提高纽约地位的是四个关键因素的共同作用。

The first is obvious: London’s future is being undermined by uncertainties unleashed by Brexit. In public, international bankers insist London remains highly attractive. This week, for example, Jes Staley, Barclays chief executive, pointed to its “gravitational pull”. But in private, senior bankers are preparing to move at least some of their activities when Brexit hits. And, while continental European centres such as Frankfurt and Paris are pitching to grab business, many senior bankers say America looks more attractive, given its infrastructure, talent pool and flexible labour laws.

第一个是显而易见的：英国脱欧引发的不确定性将损及伦敦的未来。在公开场合，国际银行家们坚称，伦敦仍具有很大的吸引力。比如在最近，巴克莱(Barclays)首席执行官杰斯•斯特利(Jes Staley)指出了伦敦的“引力”。但在私下里，资深银行家们正准备在英国正式脱欧时迁走至少部分业务。此外，尽管法兰克福和巴黎等欧洲大陆的金融中心正在招揽业务，但许多资深银行家表示，鉴于美国的基础设施、人才库和灵活的劳动法规，它看来吸引力更大。

“It is pretty unlikely anything like what we call ‘London’ could be replicated in the foreseeable future in one place in the EU,” Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, told the House of Lords last month. “But it already exists in New York.” Or as Mark Boleat, policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, observes: “The biggest beneficiary of any job losses in the UK will be New York.”

“在可以预见的未来，欧盟(EU)某个地方复制出我们所称的‘伦敦’的可能性很低，”英国央行副行长乔恩•坎里夫(Jon Cunliffe)上月在英国国会上院(House of Lords)表示。“但是，纽约已具备伦敦的特点。”或者，正如伦敦金融城管理当局(City of London Corporation)政策主席包墨凯(Mark Boleat)所评述：“只要英国出现岗位流失，纽约就将成为最大受益者。”

However, Brexit is not the only factor here; a second is the regulatory and political climate. A decade ago Michael Bloomberg, then New York mayor, commissioned a McKinsey report that concluded London was grabbing business from New York because it had a more welcoming regulatory climate.

然而，脱欧并非唯一因素;第二个是监管和政治环境。十年前，时任纽约市长迈克尔•布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)委托麦肯锡(McKinsey)做了一份报告，报告称，由于监管环境更友好，伦敦正从纽约那里抢走业务。

No longer. Since the 2008 crisis British regulators have, quite rightly, implemented reform. Bank levies have been imposed amid a political backlash. Of course, regulation has been tightened in America too; look at the hefty Dodd-Frank rules. But in America the bank-bashing has waned. And now Mr Trump’s policy team are not only muttering about rolling back some reforms; they are also considering bringing bankers into the administration. Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, has been mooted as possible Treasury secretary. The symbolism is profound.

如今情况不同了。自从2008年危机以来，英国监管机构已非常正确地执行了改革。银行税在政治反弹中出台了。当然，美国的监管也收紧了;看看长篇累牍的《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank)吧。但在美国，对银行的抨击已逐渐消失了。现在，特朗普政策团队不但正在私下讨论着撤销部分改革措施，而且也在考虑让银行家进入政府任职。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)已成为潜在财长的讨论人选。其中的象征意义非常深远。

A third factor is the health of banks. In recent years American banks have cleaned up their balance sheets and recapitalised themselves. The Europeans have lagged behind, which means American banks are resurgent on the world stage. This is likely to be magnified if Mr Trump loosens regulations. If the Federal Reserve raises rates next month — and Janet Yellen, Fed chair, hinted on Thursday that it would — that would bolster US banks’ fee income.

第三个因素是银行的健康状况。近年来，美国的银行已清理了资产负债表，并注入了新资本。欧洲同行已落在后面，这意味着，美国的银行在世界舞台上重新崛起了。如果特朗普放松管制，这一点还可能放大。如果美联储(Fed)下月加息——美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)上周四暗示将加息——那将提振美国银行业的费用收入。

The US economy is likely to grow, partly as a result of Mr Trump’s reflation plans, which could in itself provide a fourth supportive factor. After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services. In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.

部分得益于特朗普的刺激计划，美国经济可能会增长。该计划本身可能产生第四个支撑因素。毕竟，企业信心增强、企业活动增多通常会增加对于金融服务的需求。形成对照的是，在欧洲，经济低迷和顽固的政治分裂已损害了信心。

“Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move — the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary,” Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week. “As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.”

“任何可以迁到美国的业务，都会在未来几年里迁到美国——美国最终将成为很大的受益者，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)总裁盖瑞•柯恩(Gary Cohn)上周说。“至于在欧洲的(金融和商业)投资，将会暂缓。”

Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch. If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty, or if Mr Trump unleashes a debt binge that goes bust, that will not create stability.

当然，有些欧洲观察者将对此不予理会，认为这是自利的推销说辞。如果特朗普的政策引发美国社会动荡或地缘政治方面的不确定性，或者如果特朗普释放出的债务泡沫后来破灭的话，这将不会带来稳定。

But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing of Wall Street. If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash some animal spirits of their own. Bickering about Brexit is not a good place to start.

但是，尽管这些风险是实实在在的，如今的关键点是：无论欧洲人如何看待特朗普，他们都需要承认，在纽约，动物精神正在上升，这可能会提振华尔街的金融业和地位。如果伦敦想要回击，那么英国当局需要找到一条释放自己的动物精神的途径。为英国脱欧而争吵不是好的起点。