继特朗普胜选后勒庞会上台吗？
去年这个时候，我写道，“我对2017年有一个噩梦般的想象：特朗普总统、勒庞总统，普京总统”。因此，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜后的下一个问题是，马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)是否能真能成为法国总统?
Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a run-off in May against either François Fillon or Alain Juppé. Both are Hillary Clinton-style establishment figures, who would be ideal opponents for the leader of the far-right.
在上周末中右翼阵营初选之后，勒庞看上去可能在明年5月份与弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)或阿兰•朱佩(Alain Juppé)进行终极对决。这两人都是希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)式的建制派人物，将是极右翼领袖勒庞的理想对手。
The consequences of a victory for the far-right in France would be drastic for both European and world politics. A Le Pen presidency could well lead to the collapse of the EU. She wants to pull France out of the European single currency and to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.
如果极右翼在法国获胜，将为欧洲和世界政治带来非常严重的后果。勒庞当上总统很可能导致欧盟(EU)的崩溃。她希望让法国退出欧洲单一货币，并就法国是否留在欧盟举行公投。
Even if Ms Le Pen softened her stance in office, it is hard to see how Angela Merkel’s Germany could work with a nationalist and authoritarian France. With Germany and France set on radically different paths, Franco-German antagonism would return to the heart of European politics.
即便勒庞上台后软化了自己的立场，也很难设想安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导下的德国如何能跟一个民族主义、威权主义的法国携手合作。随着德国和法国走上截然不同的道路，法德的对立将重回欧洲政治的中心。
The global implications of a Le Pen victory would also be severe. Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council would be occupied either by undemocratic governments (Russia and China), or by democracies led by nationalist rightwing leaders (US and France). Under such circumstances, the international legal order could crumble, as might once again became right.
勒庞获胜对全球的影响也将是严重的。在联合国(UN)安全理事会(Security Council)的五个常任理事国中，有四个将要么是非民主国家(俄罗斯和中国)，要么是由民族主义右翼领袖领导的民主国家(美国和法国)。在这种情况下，国际法律秩序可能崩溃，世界秩序可能再次向右转。
Of course, even post-Brexit and post-Trump, there is nothing inevitable about a Le Pen victory in France. For what it is worth, the opinion polls still show her likely to lose decisively in the second round of the election. And although Ms Le Pen has moved to embrace the Trump White House and has been keenly supported by Mr Trump’s “alt-right” advisers, there are important differences between the Trump and Le Pen phenomenons.
当然，即便在英国退欧和特朗普上台之后，也不存在什么因素决定勒庞必然在法国获得胜利。无论有多少参考价值，民意调查仍然表明，她可能会以明显差距输掉第二轮选举。虽然勒庞对特朗普政府表示了极大的欢迎，并且得到特朗普的“另类右翼”(alt-right)顾问的支持，但特朗普现象和勒庞现象之间存在着重大区别。
Unlike Mr Trump, the National Front has been around for decades and is more of a known quantity to voters. France’s bitter memories of the Vichy regime of the 1940s may also mean that the country is better inoculated against far-right politics than the US.
与特朗普不同的是，国民阵线(National Front)已经存在了几十年了，在更大程度上已经为选民们所熟悉了。法国对上世纪40年代维希政权的痛苦记忆或许也意味着，比起美国，法国对极右政治更加免疫。
Set against that, however, is the possibility that French voters, who might have feared that a Le Pen presidency would turn their country into an international pariah, may now feel that Mr Trump’s victory has given them “permission” to vote for the far-right.
然而，与此相反的一种可能性是，曾担心勒庞把法国变成国际社会“贱民”的该国选民，现在也许觉得，特朗普当选让他们获得了投票支持极右翼的“许可证”。
The objective conditions for a turn towards authoritarian nationalism are clearly stronger in France than in the US. France has been subjected to savage terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists. There are large, poorly integrated Muslim populations in most big cities. Unemployment among the general population is over 10 per cent.
法国转向威权民族主义显然具备比美国更充分的客观条件。法国遭到了伊斯兰极端分子的野蛮恐怖主义袭击。在大多数大城市中，存在着大量未融入当地社会的的穆斯林人口。全国总人口的失业率超过10%。
Above all, the political establishment is despised. The approval ratings of President François Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent. The political, social, economic and international environments could not be more favourable for Ms Le Pen.
最重要的是，政治建制派遭到鄙视。法国总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)的支持率最近创下4%的惊人低点。如今的政治、社会、经济和国际环境对勒庞都简直不能更有利了。
In recent years, Ms Le Pen has moved to distance herself from her father, Jean-Marie, whose racist views are embarrassingly open. These days, Ms Le Pen’s rhetoric is indeed less inflammatory and dishonest than that of Mr Trump. But the French far-right leader has had her moments. She has, for example, compared Muslims praying in France’s streets with the Nazi occupation.
近年来，勒庞已跟父亲让-马里•勒庞(Jean-Marie Le Pen)撇清了干系，后者的种族主义观点是公开的，让人感到难堪。近来，勒庞的言论确实没有像特朗普那样煽动性十足和不诚实。但这位法国极右翼领袖也发表过令人瞠目结舌的言论。比如，她曾把在法国街头祈祷的穆斯林与纳粹占领军相比。
On the other side of the channel, there might even be some in the British government who would quietly welcome the prospect of a far-right victory in France. While the current French government is leading the demands that Britain must pay a heavy price for Brexit, Ms Le Pen has applauded the British decision to quit the EU. A Le Pen victory might even solve the Brexit problem since there might no longer be an EU left for the UK to leave. Boris Johnson, UK foreign secretary, hailed the “opportunity” represented by the election of the pro-Brexit Mr Trump, and might sniff similar “opportunities” in the rise of Ms Le Pen.
在海峡对岸的英国，政府里甚至可能有些人会暗自希望极右翼在法国取胜。法国现政府带头要求英国必须为退欧付出沉重代价，而勒庞赞扬了英国的退欧决定。也许勒庞获胜甚至可能解决掉英国退欧问题，因为欧盟或许将从这个世界上消失。英国外交大臣鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)对支持英国退欧的特朗普胜选所代表的“机会”表示欢呼，他或许也在勒庞的崛起中嗅到了类似的“机会”。
More sober heads in London, however, must surely realise that the rise of the French far-right cannot ultimately be good news for Britain. A National Front victory in France would mean that the forces of authoritarian nationalism would be flourishing across Europe, from Moscow to Warsaw to Budapest and Paris. Under Mr Trump, the US could no longer be relied upon as a stabilising force to push back against political extremism in Europe.
然而，伦敦更多头脑清醒的人们必须明白，法国极右翼的崛起最终肯定对英国不利。国民阵线在法国的胜利将意味着，威权民族主义将在整个欧洲抬头——从莫斯科到华沙、再到布达佩斯和巴黎。在特朗普领导下，美国再也不能像人们指望的那样发挥稳定作用、阻止欧洲政治极端主义兴起了。
Instead, many in Europe are now looking towards Ms Merkel, who has just announced that she will be running for a fourth term as German chancellor, next year, as the anchor of European stability. But the challenges facing Ms Merkel are truly daunting. She confronts a hostile Russia to the East and a Middle East in flames to the south. Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous towards Ms Merkel.
相反，欧洲许多人目前正把目光投向默克尔，希望她能维系欧洲的稳定。她刚刚宣布明年将参加竞选，如果获胜，将开始第四个总理任期。但是，默克尔面临的挑战确实很艰巨。德国东面有敌对的俄罗斯，南面是战火连绵的中东。特朗普则一直公开对默克尔表示轻蔑。
Within the EU, Germany’s relations with southern Europe have been poisoned by the euro crisis, while its relations with eastern Europe have been soured by the refugee crisis. Meanwhile, Britain has voted to leave the bloc. The election of Ms Le Pen in France could be the final blow to the vision of Europe represented by Ms Merkel, and constructed by generations of European leaders, since the 1950s.
在欧盟内部，德国与南欧的关系因欧元危机而恶化，与东欧的关系因难民危机而变坏。同时，英国已投票决定离开欧盟。若勒庞在法国当选，可能对于由默克尔代表的、自1950年代以来几代欧洲领导人构建的欧洲愿景构成最后一击。
