FT社评：特朗普将让全球贸易陷入风险

Of all the issues on which Donald Trump opined so forcefully on the election trail, he was particularly strident and unusually specific about trade.

在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)竞选期间曾激烈讨论过的所有话题中，他对于贸易问题的态度特别强硬而且出奇地具体。

Mr Trump threatened to slap a 35 per cent import tax on Ford cars if the company moved production to Mexico; he said that he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) and if necessary withdraw altogether; he promised to abandon the ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement among 12 Asia-Pacific nations; he warned that he would use every lawful presidential power, including imposing emergency tariffs, on China if it did not stop its allegedly illegal activities.

特朗普威胁称，如果福特(Ford)将生产转移到墨西哥，他将对该公司生产的汽车征收35%的进口税;他表示，将就《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)展开重新谈判，必要的话将完全退出;他承诺将废除12个亚太国家达成的贸易协定《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)协定;他警告称，如果中国不停止所谓的非法活动，他将针对中国使用一切合法的总统权力，包括实行紧急关税。

As with all his policies, Mr Trump may modify or abandon parts of this package once in office, particularly if he grasps the potential impact on the US economy of starting a fully-fledged trade war. But it may be harder to shift the mindset that clearly underlies all his suggestions: a mercantilist zero-sum view of the world in which economies are intrinsically in competition and current account deficits prima facie reflect cheating by trade partners. With the positive wealth-creating role of trade increasingly and mistakenly being dismissed by politicians, that is a deeply worrying development.

正如特朗普提出过的所有政策一样，他在上台后可能会修改或放弃上述贸易政策中的一部分，尤其是在他意识到发动全面贸易战可能给美国经济造成的影响之后。但要改变明显支撑其上述所有看法的思维可能比较困难：他对世界持重商主义零和观点，他认为，在这个世界中，各个经济体从本质上来说是竞争关系，经常账户赤字明显反映出贸易伙伴的欺骗。贸易的财富创造这一积极作用被越来越多的政治人士错误地否认，这种发展令人深感担忧。

There are reasons to hope Mr Trump might soften his approach once in power. First, there is a long tradition of presidential candidates talking tough on trade and then pulling back. Barack Obama promised to renegotiate Nafta on the campaign trail in 2008 — admittedly without threatening to destroy it if he did not get his way — and rapidly forgot the pledge once in office.

我们有理由期待特朗普在上台后可能软化其策略。首先，总统候选人在贸易问题上措辞强硬、但在上台后却收回锋芒的传统相当悠久。在2008年总统竞选期间，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)曾承诺就《北美自由贸易协定》重新谈判(诚然，他并没有威胁称如果没有达到他的愿望他将摧毁该协定)，但在上台后却迅速放弃了这一承诺。

Second, some of Mr Trump’s other policies, such as naming China as a currency manipulator, are no more than symbolic. And some, such as appointing tough trade negotiators and bringing World Trade Organisation cases against China, are little more than restatements of current practice.

第二，特朗普的一些其他政策(例如将中国列为汇率操纵国)不过是象征性的。还有一些政策只不过是对当前惯例的重述，例如任命强硬的贸易谈判代表以及在世界贸易组织(WTO)起诉中国。

But it is the White House’s ability to use emergency powers, including “safeguard” tariffs or quotas against imports, that might provide the immediate test of Mr Trump’s willingness to march into a trade war. Such tariffs applied widely — as Richard Nixon did with his “import surcharge” in 1971 — would almost certainly provoke litigation at the WTO. If the White House simply defies WTO rulings, one of the remaining pillars of multilateral trade co-operation will be knocked away.

但正是因为白宫有能力使用“保护性”关税或进口配额等紧急权力，特朗普发起贸易战的意愿将受到直接的考验。几乎可以肯定的是，如果广泛使用此类关税——理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)在1971年就推出过“进口附加费”——肯定会引发WTO内的诉讼。如果白宫无视WTO的裁决，如今多边贸易合作仅剩的支柱之一就将崩溃。

Whatever form Mr Trump’s policies take, his worldview suggests that the US will no longer attempt to play a central role in shaping the world’s trading system. His pledge to abandon TPP — plus the fact the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU was barely moving — mean the US will no longer be trying to export its version of the ideal model for trade agreements. The virtues of the TPP can be disputed, but the visions of trade governance promulgated by the US’s rivals for dominance, notably China, are unlikely to be impressive. Whatever the stated ideology of any given president, the pattern once in office has tended to be the same. The White House is the adult who prioritises keeping trade flowing and Congress is the fractious adolescent who keeps demanding confrontation with trading partners and refuses to sign new deals.

无论特朗普采取何种政策，他的世界观表明，美国将不再努力在塑造全球贸易体系方面扮演核心角色。他承诺要废除TPP，再加上与欧盟的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership)协定几乎毫无进展，意味着美国不再努力输出其理想的贸易协定模式。TPP的好处可能存在争议，但挑战美国贸易主导地位的竞争对手(尤其是中国)宣传的贸易治理当道，这种前景不太可能让人喜欢。美国任何一位总统无论宣称持哪种意识形态，一旦上台，表现模式往往是相同的。白宫是优先保持贸易流动的成年人，国会是不断要求与贸易伙伴对抗并拒绝签署新协议的叛逆青少年。

Mr Trump, to put it mildly, seems unlikely to want to play the traditional presidential role. Therein lies the danger. Much will depend on his temperament and his advisers. But one thing is clear: with global trade already weak, there are serious risks to international commerce from the accession to power of a US president with such a simplistic analysis of the world.

委婉点说，特朗普似乎不太可能想扮演传统的总统角色。这其中存在着风险。很多东西将取决于他的脾气和顾问。但有一件事情是显而易见的：全球贸易已经疲弱，特朗普对世界的分析过于简单化，他成为美国总统将给国际商务带来极大风险。