从特朗普胜选看美国政治
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选引发了人们的重重疑问和深刻反思，有些问题是关于美国的，有些问题是关于西方的未来的。以下是我在纽约逗留五天(包括大选之夜)得出的初步结论。
1) Cultural and identity politics are the common thread of instability running through the world right now.
1)文化及身份认同政治是当今世界不稳定局势的共同主线。
From Donald Trump’s triumph to Brexit and the rise of a new caliphate in the Middle East, the tension is likely to get worse before it gets better. In the US, Trump played on middle class and working class fears about immigration and cultural nostalgia for a bygone era in America. He brilliantly exploited anger about political correctness, especially among elites, including the mainstream media. Ultimately, as in Brexit Britain, identity politics may have “trumped” pocketbook politics.
从唐纳德•特朗普在美国大选中获胜到英国脱欧和中东新哈里发的崛起，紧张局势可能会继续恶化，然后才有望好转。在美国，特朗普利用了中产和工薪阶层对移民的恐惧和对一个逝去时代的文化怀旧。他成功地利用了民众对政治正确、特别是精英阶层(包括主流媒体)的政治正确的愤怒。最终，如脱欧的英国一样，身份认同政治(identity politics)或许会“战胜”钱包政治(pocketbook politics)。
2) The anti-globalisation movement is growing.
2)反全球化运动风头日盛。
Mr Trump’s anti-free trade rhetoric was not challenged by Hillary Clinton. The elites, including the media, have become complacent about globalisation, failing to grasp the importance of defending the postwar liberal order, institutions and treaties which have underpinned growth and prosperity. Illiberal democrats such as Marine Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany will take heart ahead of elections in 2017. Trump has shown that populism is not just framing the debate, it can win. The unthinkable is now possible.
特朗普的反自由贸易言论没有受到希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的挑战。包括媒体在内的精英阶层对全球化感到沾沾自喜，他们没有明白维护战后自由秩序、制度和条约——它们是增长和繁荣的基础——的重要性。反自由的民主主义者，如法国的马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)和德国新选择党(AfD)，将在2017年选举前受到鼓舞。特朗普已经证明，民粹主义不仅正在左右辩论，而且还可以获胜。以往不可想象的情况，现在已变得可能。
3) The parallels between Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan are overdone.
3)将唐纳德•特朗普与罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)相提并论有些过了。
Trump has no previous political experience and he is a creature of reality TV and the moment. By the time he became president, Ronald Reagan had been a two-time governor of California and a trade union organiser in Hollywood. When he won the White House in 1980, Reagan had a political philosophy. He was the political leader of a low-tax, small-government movement. Mr Trump said in his victory speech that he too was head of a movement (not, interestingly, a party), but many of his positions on the economy and foreign policy are incoherent, contradictory and inherently high-risk.
特朗普毫无从政经验，他是电视真人秀和当下时代的产物。里根就任总统前，当过两届加利福尼亚州州长，还曾是好莱坞的一名工会组织者。1980年在总统选举中获胜时，里根已形成了自己的政治哲学。他是一场主张低税、“小政府”的运动的政治领袖。特朗普在胜选演说中也说他是一场运动(有趣的是，并非某个政党)的领袖，但他许多关于经济和外交政策的立场不一致、相互矛盾，从本质上来说充满风险。
4) There are huge questions about a Trump administration’s foreign policy.
4)关于特朗普政府的外交政策存在许多大问题。
Mr Trump loves to be liked, and his five favourite words are: “The art of the deal”. But a transactional foreign policy which places all bets on personal relationships and negotiating skills — rather than alliances and long-term policy planning — is a source of serious concern in Europe and Asia. His threat to undo the nuclear deal with Iran is high-risk too. In his first two years, he may well face a showdown with North Korea over its nuclear programme. His temperament and judgment will be put to the test.
特朗普喜欢被人喜欢，他最爱的五个字是：“交易的艺术”(The art of the deal)。但是，一种将所有赌注都押在个人关系和谈判技巧、而非是联盟和长期政策规划上的交易式外交政策，会令欧洲和亚洲感到严重担忧。他威胁撤销与伊朗核协议的说法也隐含很大风险。在上任头两年，他可能围绕朝鲜核计划与对方摊牌。他的性格和判断将遭受考验。
5) The Democrats are in a terrible state.
5)民主党人处于可怕的状态之中。
They have won the popular vote in six out of the past seven elections, but only won the White House four times. Mrs Clinton was a deeply flawed candidate who failed to motivate voters. If turnout had been a little higher in key states (Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) she could have won. But her decades of public service counted for nothing and Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont, did more damage to her candidacy during the Democratic primary campaign than realised. Now the question is, can the party rebuild — or will it turn to its own Trump-like populist?
在过去七次选举中，他们有六次赢得了民众的更多选票，但只有四次成功入主白宫。希拉里是一名有很大缺陷的候选人，她没能把选民们动员起来。如果关键州(佛罗里达州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州)的投票率稍微高一点儿，她就获胜了。但她几十年的公共服务毫无作用，佛蒙特州的社会主义者伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在民主党初选中对她的候选人资格造成的伤害，要大于人们所意识到的程度。现在的问题是，民主党是否能够重建——还是将转向自己党内的特朗普式民粹主义者?
6) Fears that the Trump victory heralds the start of illiberal democracy in America are overblown.
6)对于特朗普胜选预示着“无自由的民主”(Illiberal Democracy)开始在美国兴起的担忧是过虑了。
Mr Trump is no Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orban, and the US is not Russia or Hungary. Mr Trump must operate within the checks and balances and separation of powers under the US constitution. True, the president has considerable executive power, but America has strong institutions that will act as a counterweight. See my Lunch with James Baker, former chief of staff to Reagan and former secretary of state, and his prescient words of advice on how to read a US election.
特朗普不是弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)或欧尔班•维克托(Viktor Orban)，美国也不是俄罗斯或匈牙利。特朗普必须根据美国宪法规定的制衡和权力分立原则行事。诚然，总统有相当大的行政权力，但美国有强大的制度，这将成为一种平衡力量。请看我的《与FT共进午餐：詹姆斯•贝克》，了解他关于如何解读美国大选的真知灼见。贝克曾任里根的幕僚长，也当过国务卿。
7) Trump destroyed two political dynasties (Bush and Clinton) and threatens to blow up Washington.
7)特朗普摧毁了两个政治世家(布什和克林顿)，并威胁要搅翻华盛顿。
Now he must show if he is capable of playing a new role: the builder. The real estate mogul and political neophyte defied convention in every respect. He rewrote the rules of campaigning, spent next to nothing on TV advertising and relied on brand Trump and a simple message: “Make America great again.” The business of government will involve much harder choices and priorities. He must work with Congress through the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Mike Pence, his vice-president and a former congressman, will play a leading role, maybe even as influential as Dick Cheney. We know Trump can play showman-in-chief, but he must now show, in terms of temperament and judgment, that he is ready to become commander-in-chief.
现在他必须证明，他是否能够扮演好新的角色：建设者。这位房地产大亨、政治新手在各方面都打破了传统。他重写了竞选规则，几乎没有花钱在电视做广告，他就依靠“特朗普”这支品牌和一条简单的口号：“让美国再次伟大”。政府事务将涉及更艰难的选择和优先排序。他要凭借共和党在参众两院获得的多数议席与国会合作。他的副总统、前国会议员迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)将扮演一个主要角色，其影响力甚至可能与迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)相仿。我们知道，特朗普可以扮演好“总作秀官”(showman-in-chief)，但他现在必须证明，在性情脾气和判断方面，他准备好了担任总指挥。
