中国精英如何看特朗普？

Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for US president, is the most extreme China basher in memory. In his first debate with Hillary Clinton, he blamed China for stealing jobs from Americans, for devaluing its currency and for engaging in state-sponsored cyberhacking. “Look at what China is doing to our country,” he said in his opening statement. “They are using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China.”

美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)是人们记忆中最极端的抨击中国者。在与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的第一场辩论中，他指责中国偷走美国人的工作、让人民币贬值、从事得到国家资助的黑客活动。“看看中国正在对我们的国家做什么，”他在开场陈述中称，“他们把我们国家当做储钱罐，从里面拿钱重建中国。”

Not surprisingly, only 22 per cent of the Chinese public sees him favourably. What is surprising is that a large chunk of relatively well-informed elite option in China favours Mr Trump for US president. The Global Times, a state-supported nationalist newspaper, wrote that “many Chinese prefer Trump”.

毫不奇怪，只有22%的中国民众对他抱有好感。但令人惊讶的是，大量相对见多识广的中国精英却青睐特朗普当选美国总统。政府支持的民族主义报纸《环球时报》(Global Times)写道：“许多中国人更喜欢特朗普”。

What explains this relatively positive assessment of Mr Trump in China? One reason is the expectation that Mrs Clinton as president would take a more hardline and confrontational approach with Beijing.

如何解释特朗普在中国得到的这种相对正面的评价?一个原因是，人们认为如果希拉里当选美国总统，将对北京方面采取更加强硬与对抗性的立场。

Mrs Clinton has strongly endorsed President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia that seems designed to reinforce US military superiority in east Asia. Her adviser Laura Rosenberger said that the policy will continue in a Clinton administration: “As president, she [Mrs Clinton] will absolutely figure out ways to build on what’s been done over the past eight years.”

希拉里曾大力支持巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统似乎旨在强化美国在东亚军事优势的“转向亚洲”战略。希拉里的顾问劳拉•罗森伯格(Laura Rosenberger)表示如果希拉里当选，该政策将在她任内延续下去：“作为总统，她(希拉里)定将在过去8年取得的成果基础上再接再厉。”

In her nomination speech in Philadelphia, Mrs Clinton sounded only slightly less extreme than Mr Trump: “If you believe that we should say no to unfair trade deals . . . that we should stand up to China . . . that we should support our steelworkers and autoworkers and homegrown manufacturers . . . join us.”

在费城发表提名演说时，希拉里言辞的极端程度仅稍逊于特朗普：“如果你认为我们应该对不公平的贸易协议说不……应该勇敢面对中国……应该支持我们的钢铁工人、汽车工人及本土制造商……那就加入我们吧。”

Her public statements suggest that she views China as a monolithic totalitarian state bent on crushing human rights, suppressing women and combating democratisation. She has never once suggested that the Chinese form of government might have merit or that China has legitimate security interests in east Asia.

希拉里的公开言论表明，她将中国视为一个庞大的极权国家，这个国家决意打压人权、压迫妇女、对抗民主化。她从未有一次表示过中国的政府形态或许有其优点，也从未有一次表示过中国在东亚拥有正当的安全利益。

So what about Mr Trump? Most of his ire is directed at China’s allegedly unfair trade practices. He promises to push for protectionist measures specifically directed against China. But he is also viewed as a pragmatic businessman who puts forward tough gambits in negotiations. Chinese elites respect his ability to get things done.

那特朗普怎么样呢?他的大部分愤怒都指向中国所谓的不公平贸易行为。他承诺要推出专门针对中国的贸易保护措施。但他也被视为一位实用主义商人，会在谈判中使出强悍的策略。中国精英欣赏他的办事能力。

What if Mr Trump as president does implement protectionist measures that harm China’s exports to the US? This could provide a good opportunity for the Chinese government to tackle vested interests, such as powerful state-owned enterprises, that block China’s transition to a more consumer-orientated economy. Just as China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 provided cover for former Premier Zhu Rongji to sack 50m state employees, so the Chinese government would have a new “enemy” that could be blamed for a further round of painful reforms.

如果当选总统的特朗普真的实施损害中国对美出口的贸易保护主义措施，会怎么样呢?这可以为中国政府提供一个对付既得利益集团(如强大的国有企业)的良机，这些既得利益集团阻碍了中国向消费导向型经济的进一步转型。正如中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)为前总理朱镕基让5000万国企职工下岗提供掩护一样，如果特朗普获胜，中国政府进行新一轮痛苦改革将有一个新的“敌人”作替罪羊。

The main reason that many in China’s elites are enthused by Mr Trump is that he threatens to scale back support for US allies if they do not pay more for it. If South Korea and Japan refuse to shoulder more financial responsibility for military protection, it might provide an opportunity for Chinese expansion.

中国许多精英喜欢特朗普的主要原因是，他威胁要减少对美国盟友的支持——如果这些盟友自己不多出钱的话。如果韩国和日本拒绝为美国提供的军事保护承担更多费用，这可能将为中国扩张提供机会。

Such views are not entirely unreasonable. It is hard to imagine that the US can maintain military superiority in the region over the next few decades, but few American politicians other than Mr Trump speak about such an eventuality. In the long term, US control of east Asian maritime waters and military support for allies that neighbour China is likely to decrease, and Mr Trump may negotiate an accord that gives China a greater say in its back yard.

这些看法并非全无道理。很难想象美国未来几十年将一直在东亚地区维持军事优势，但除了特朗普，很少有美国政客敢捅破这一点。从长远来看，美国对东亚海域的控制及其对与中国相邻的盟国的军事支持都可能弱化，而特朗普或许会与中国协商一项协议，使中国在自己的后院获得更大的话语权。

More worryingly, I have heard the view that a Trump presidency will discredit the American democratic system and lend support for China’s more meritocratic system, which has checks against inexperienced and unstable candidates getting anywhere close to the main levers of political power. At the very least, there will be no more of the kind of lectures Bill Clinton used to give when president about China being on the “wrong” side of history because it has not moved towards electoral democracy.

更令人担忧的是，我还听到一种观点称，特朗普当选总统将让美国民主制度蒙羞，并让中国更偏向“精英治理”的制度获得更多支持，中国的制度可以防止缺乏经验或反复无常的候选人接近政治权力中心。至少，不会再有人像比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)当总统时那样，说中国处于历史的“错误的”一边，因为中国没有朝着选举式民主迈进。

Of course, not all Chinese elites cheer for Mr Trump: my female academic friends in China tend to be horrified by his “uncivilised” ways. But American leaders should consider the kinds of views I have described when they think about the policies most likely to lead to good relations with China. The best-case scenario is that Mrs Clinton as president will take counsel from experienced China hands such as Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state, who managed to stake out a constructive relationship with China when the country was ruled by an unstable political leader of its own.

当然，并不是所有中国精英都支持特朗普：我在中国的一些女性学者朋友往往被他“不文明的”言行吓到。但美国领导人在思考什么样的政策最有可能带来良好的美中关系时，应该考虑我所描述的几种观点。最好的局面是，当上总统后的希拉里能够征求经验丰富的“中国通”的意见——如前国务卿亨利基辛格，他在中国被一个反复无常的政治领袖统治的时期设法在中美之间建立了建设性关系。