FT社评：杜特尔特在中美间的危险博弈

Rodrigo Duterte, the flamboyant president of the Philippines, has spent this week in Beijing executing a dramatic pivot away from the US, his country’s closest ally, and into the arms of the rising superpower, China.

行事高调的菲律宾总统罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)利用本周对北京的访问，上演了一场脱离该国最亲密的盟友美国、转投崛起中的超级大国中国怀抱的大戏。

During his four-day trip, his first to a country outside the Asean bloc since becoming president in June, he said it was time to “say goodbye” to the US and claimed that “only China [could] help” the Philippines. If followed to their logical conclusion, his words would represent the most significant realignment of geopolitical power in the region since the cold war.

这是杜特尔特自6月就任总统以来首次访问东盟(ASEAN)以外的国家，在为期四天的访华行程中，他表示，是时候对美国“说再见了”，并宣称“只有中国(能够)帮助”菲律宾。从遵循他此番言论的逻辑推导出的结论来看，此番言论将代表着冷战结束以来亚太地区地缘政治力量最重大的一次调整。

In spite of his uncompromising language, Mr Duterte may well in fact be playing the tides between the US and China rather than reversing the Philippines’ fundamental strategic posture. Nonetheless, he should recognise that this is a highly dangerous endeavour, not only for his country but also for the broader region.

尽管言辞坚定，但实际上，杜特尔特很可能只是在美中之间见风使舵，而非要彻底转变菲律宾的根本战略立场。尽管如此，他应该认识到，这是一种高度危险的尝试——不仅对菲律宾，对整个地区而言也是如此。

Mr Duterte is bashing Washington to ingratiate himself with Beijing, but his rhetoric risks alienating both of the world’s biggest powers. Manila appears to be betting that the US will not abandon one of its closest regional allies just because of the colourful insults Mr Duterte has directed at Barack Obama.

杜特尔特痛批华盛顿来讨好北京，但他的话有可能同时疏远这两个世界头号大国。马尼拉似乎赌的是美国不会仅仅因杜特尔特对巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)出言不逊就放弃其关系最密切一个地区盟国。

But in referring to the US president as the “son of a whore”, Mr Duterte reveals a worrying lack of finesse that may serve him ill if US-China tension in the region ramps up. In addition, Washington may be less than willing in the future to look past Mr Duterte’s more substantive threats, such as pledging to cancel the joint military exercises that form a key part of the US military presence in the region.

但杜特尔特称美国总统是“婊子养的”言论，暴露出他严重缺乏手腕，这一点可能会让他吃苦头——如果美中在亚太地区的紧张关系加剧的话。此外，未来华盛顿可能不会愿意无视杜特尔特发出的更实质性的威胁，如誓言取消与美国的联合军事演习，而这些军演正是美国在亚太地区军事存在的关键部分。

On China’s side of the equation, Mr Duterte is walking an even trickier path. If Manila is hoping for more Chinese trade and investment as a reward for tilting towards Beijing’s strategic position in the disputed South China Sea, this may pay off to some extent in the short term. There is ample evidence of China rewarding regional allies, such as Cambodia, that support it in political disputes.

就中国这一头而言，杜特尔特走的是一条更难把握的道路。如果马尼拉希望用在南中国海争端中向北京的战略立场倾斜，来换取中国更多的贸易和投资，短期内或将有一定的效果。大量证据显示，中国会对在政治争端中对支持自己的地区盟友(如柬埔寨)给予回报。

But Beijing sees the South China Sea as a binary issue; it regards the 41 disputed islands and land features as its own territory and it plans to take all of them back. Thus, emollient words are unlikely to satisfy China for long. Manila risks falling prey to a diplomatic dynamic in which China exacts the surrender of territorial claims as downpayments for investment and trade pledges. Such an outcome could quickly pall, eroding Mr Duterte’s popularity at home and the tough guy image he has burnished through a ruthless domestic crackdown on drugs.

但北京方面认为南中国海是一个二元问题，它将41个争议性岛屿及地物视作自己的领土，并计划全部收回。因此安抚性的话不太可能长久令中国满意。马尼拉有可能成为这一外交事态的牺牲品，即中国会要求其以放弃领土主张作为投资和贸易承诺的定金。这样的结果可能会迅速失去吸引力，损害杜特尔特在国内的人气，以及他通过在国内无情镇压毒品而提升的硬汉形象。

What is more, any territorial concessions by Mr Duterte that run counter to the ruling of an international tribunal this year would undermine the rule of law in the region and potentially embolden Beijing. The tribunal found that China lacked a “legal basis” to multiple claims in the South China Sea.

此外，杜特尔特作出的任何领土让步如违反国际仲裁庭今年作出的裁决，都将破坏该地区的法治，并可能为北京壮胆。该仲裁庭认为中国对南中国海的多项主张缺乏“法律依据”。

Mr Duterte is not the only one who needs to engage in careful reflection. Washington too should recognise that it is partly responsible for Manila’s flirtation with China. Mr Obama’s rebalancing towards Asia has been halfhearted, and the US has taken the loyalty of countries such as the Philippines for granted. It needs to show greater commitment to its regional friends.

杜特尔特不是唯一需要仔细思考的人。华盛顿方面也该认识到它对马尼拉与中国之间的互动负有部分责任。奥巴马的转向亚洲战略一直实施得不温不火，美国也一直将菲律宾等国的忠诚视为理所当然的事情。美国需要展现出维系与亚太地区盟友之间友情的更大决心。

For Mr Duterte, it is not too late to reverse course on his rash excursion into diplomatic adventurism. He should make it clear to the Americans that he has no intention of abandoning their alliance. Setting the US and China against one another over such an incendiary issue as the South China Sea is foolhardy. The Philippines leader should see this before it is too late.

对杜特尔特来说，现在从他草率涉足的外交冒险主义这条路上掉头还不算太晚。他应该向美国人表明自己不打算放弃他们的联盟。在南中国海这样一个一点就着的问题上挑拨美中两国互相对立是愚蠢的。菲律宾领导人应及时看清这一点，以免追悔莫及。