研究：英国将躲过衰退，但退欧仍损害经济

Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected surveys.

面对好于预期的调查数据，伦敦金融城两家顶级机构撤销了退欧公投会导致英国经济衰退的预测，并调高了英国增长前景。

Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的经济学家调高了英国2016年和2017年的增长预测，撤销了衰退预测，但他们表示，退欧公投结果仍将压低增长率。

The upward revisions followed good August results in the three main purchasing managers’ surveys — for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.

此次上调增长预期之前，8月的三项主要采购经理人指数(服务业、制造业和建筑业)均表现喜人。

Credit Suisse increased its forecast for 2016 growth from 1 per cent to 1.9 per cent and its 2017 forecast from a contraction of 1 per cent to growth of 0.5 per cent.

瑞信把2016年的增长预测从1%上调至1.9%，把2017年的预测从收缩1%，修订为增长0.5%。

Morgan Stanley said it had changed its forecast because of the latest data “from a sharp slowdown and Brecession, to a lesser slowdown, which narrowly avoids a technical recession”.

摩根士丹利表示，最新数据的公布导致其调整了英国增长预期，“从大幅放缓和退欧导致的衰退，调整为更轻微的放缓，避免一场技术性衰退”。

Both banks expected Brexit would harm the UK economy and both expected the shock would be felt after the Article 50 leaving process was triggered rather than the result itself.

这两家银行预测退欧将损害英国经济，并都预计，在英国依照里斯本条约第50条(Article 50)启动退欧进程(而非退欧公投结果出来)之后，英国经济将感受到冲击。

Melanie Baker of Morgan Stanley said when households notice changes to the economy, they are likely to become more reluctant to spend. “We expect current resilience will be undermined over time by firms holding back on investment and hiring, and an erosion of purchasing power, as the weaker GBP drives a pick-up in inflation,” she said.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的梅拉妮•贝克(Melanie Baker)称，当家家户户注意到经济上的变化时，他们可能会变得更不愿意支出。“我们预计，随着时间的推移，企业不愿投资和招聘将削弱当前的韧性，而随着英镑疲软推高通胀，购买力会受到侵蚀。”

Morgan Stanley revised its forecasts up from 1.2 to 1.9 per cent for 2016 and in 2017 from 0.5 to 0.6 per cent.

摩根士丹利将2016年英国增长预测由1.2%上调至1.9%，2017年增长预测由0.5%上调至0.6%。

Many economists have been revising their forecasts up in response to the latest data, but almost all still expect the UK economy to perform worse after Brexit.

很多经济学家都在根据最新数据上调英国增长预期，但是几乎所有人都仍然预期，英国经济在退欧后表现更糟。