美或敦促以外交方式解决南中国海问题

The ruling by a UN tribunal against China’s claims in the South China Sea presents an opportunity for the US to press for diplomatic solutions to the region’s territorial disputes but also raises the risk of a sharper confrontation with China.

一个国际仲裁庭针对中国在南中国海领土主张所作的裁决，给美国提供了一个敦促各方以外交方式解决该地区领土争议的机会，但同时也有可能导致美中对峙升级。

In a verdict whose stinging criticism of China surprised legal analysts, the UN tribunal in The Hague said there was “no legal basis” for China’s claim to most of the South China Sea laid out on maps by the “nine-dash line”.

该裁决对中国的强烈抨击令法律分析人士大吃一惊。海牙仲裁庭在裁决中称，中国对南中国海大多数区域(在地图上以“九段线”标出)的领土主张“没有法律依据”。

The Obama administration, which has presented the ruling as a test of China’s willingness to abide by international law, said the verdict was a “new opportunity” to resolve disputes in the South China Sea.

奥巴马(Obama)政府表示该裁决将检验中国是否愿意遵守国际法，并称该裁决为解决南中国海纠纷提供了一个“新机会”。

But the US will also be on alert for the danger that the Chinese leadership, which might see the ruling as a humiliating slap-down, will seek to take action to defend its claims and will react aggressively to any perceived US military escalation.

但是，美国也会提防中国领导层或试图采取行动维护其领土主张、并对其眼中的任何美国军事行动升级作出激烈反应。中国领导层可能会视此次裁决为一记羞辱性的耳光。

“We ought to try to give China every opportunity to walk itself back from the ledge,” said Admiral Dennis Blair, former head of US Pacific Command. There were factions within China pushing for a less aggressive approach.

“我们应该尝试给中国一切机会让它自己从悬崖边退回来，”前美军太平洋司令部总司令丹尼斯•布莱尔海军上将(Admiral Dennis Blair)称。中国内部也有部分派别支持采取不那么咄咄逼人的路线。

“I might be kidding myself, but behind the truculent rhetoric, I detect a desire on the Chinese side to ease off,” he said. “The US should do nothing to stop this.”

“我可能是在自欺欺人，但在尖锐的措辞背后，我发现了中方对缓和事态的渴望，”他称，“美国不应该阻止这一点。”

Ahead of the ruling on a case initially brought by the Philippines, the US and China have been conducting a rhetorical battle about its importance. While Beijing has rejected the legitimacy of the tribunal in strident terms, US officials have warned China not to undermine international law. Ashton Carter, US defence secretary, said last month that China could “end up erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation”.

在海牙的仲裁庭对这起最初由菲律宾提起的诉讼作出裁决前，美国和中国一直在对该案的重要性进行舆论战。北京方面以强硬的措辞拒绝承认仲裁的合法性，而美国官员警告中国不要试图破坏国际法。美国国防部长阿什顿•卡特(Ashton Carter)上月表示，中国可能会“最终竖起自我孤立的长城”。

Behind the sparring lies a deeper geopolitical struggle between the two great powers over whose navy effectively controls the crucial waterway of the South China Sea, a contest with profound implications for how the Asia-Pacific region will be managed in the coming decades.

剑拔弩张的背后，是两个大国在谁的海军实际控制南中国海关键航道问题上、更深层次的地缘政治之争，这场竞赛对亚太地区未来数十年将如何管理有着深远的影响。

“The Chinese effectively say that freedom of navigation is guaranteed [in the South China Sea] because we grant it. Our position is that freedom of navigation is not for you to grant,” says Kurt Campbell, former US assistant secretary of state for East Asia.

“中方实际上是说，(南中国海上的)航行自由得以保障是因为他们允许。我们的立场是航行自由不是由你们来允许的，”前美国东亚事务助理国务卿科特•坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)称。

Paul Reichler, the lead attorney for the Philippines in the case, said the ruling would create space for more diplomacy in the disputes in the South China Sea because it also affected other claimants, including Vietnam and Malaysia.

本案菲律宾方的首席律师保罗•赖克勒(Paul Reichler)称，该裁决将为南中国海上的纠纷创造更多外交空间，因为它也影响到了包括越南和马来西亚在内的其他声索国。

“All of those countries can now defend their rights from a stronger position,” he said.

“现在所有这些国家都可以站在更有力的立场上维护自己的利益了，”他称。

“China is faced with a choice of alienating all of its neighbours for a long time or finding an accommodation that reflects the interests of both these states and of China.”

“中国现在面临选择，是长期疏远所有邻国，还是找到一个反映中国以及这些国家利益的和解方案。”

Greg Poling, an expert on the South China Sea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that the Philippines and China could potentially reopen talks about fishing at Scarborough Shoal after the tribunal ruled China had been restricting access traditionally enjoyed by Filipino fisherman. “It opens up some room for accommodation,” he said.

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)南中国海问题专家格雷格•波林(Greg Poling)表示，在该仲裁庭裁定中国对菲律宾渔民传统捕鱼区一直限制进入后，菲律宾和中国可能会重新打开有关在斯卡伯勒浅滩(Scarborough Shoal，中国称黄岩岛)捕鱼的对话。“它带来了一些和解空间，”他称。

However, there is also the potential that an isolated China will step up its efforts to develop military facilities in the South China Sea.

然而，孤立的中国也有可能会加紧在南中国海上发展军事设施的努力。

Julie Xue, a Chinese academic at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, said that the ruling will play into the historical narrative stretching back to the 19th century of China constantly being humiliated by imperial powers.

位于伦敦的皇家国际事务研究所(Royal Institute of International Affairs)的中国学者薛桂芳表示，该裁决将让人回想起19世纪的历史，那时的中国不断受到帝国主义列强的羞辱。

“China already sees this as a conspiracy, as a political game cloaked in the idea of international law,” she said. “This will only confirm that.”

“中国已经将此视为一个阴谋，视为一场以国际法概念为幌子的政治游戏，”她称，“裁决只会证实他们的看法。”

That leaves the Obama administration with difficult decisions about how to use military power to enforce the ruling.

这使奥巴马政府面临着如何利用军事实力执行该裁决的艰难决定。

The Pentagon will probably seek to deter any further exercises in land reclamation by China in disputed areas and the ruling gives it a clearer legal framework for where to conduct so-called “freedom of navigation operations” that challenge excessive claims. However, it will also be wary of being seen to provoke China.

美国国防部可能会试图阻止中国在争议海域进一步填海造岛的行动。同时，该裁决给它提供了一个更清晰的法律框架，使它知道可以在哪里展开挑战过度领土主张的所谓“航行自由行动”。但它也将小心避免被视为挑衅中国。