铁矿石价格反弹至15个月高点

Steelmaking ingredient iron ore surged further onThursday, rising to its highest level in 15 monthsand securing its position as the best performingmajor commodity of 2016.

周四，炼钢原料铁矿石的价格继续飙升，涨至15个月高位，坐稳了2016年表现最佳的主要大宗商品的位子。

Caught between slowing demand from China andrelentless supply growth, iron ore was expected toendure another tough year. Instead, it has risen 60per cent, outpacing gold and oil, due to risingChinese steel prices and supply cuts.

在中国需求放缓及供应持续增长的夹击下，人们原本预计铁矿石会经历又一个艰难的年份，但事实上它的价格却上涨了60%，超过了黄金和石油的涨幅，背后的原因是中国钢材价格上涨和减产。

If sustained, the rebound in prices could add billions of dollars to the bottom line of the world’slargest mining companies. Iron ore is key source of profits for companies such as BHP Billiton,Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale.

如果这股趋势保持下去，铁矿石价格反弹可能会为全球大型矿企带来数十亿美元额外的利润。对必和必拓(BHPBilliton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和巴西淡水河谷(Vale)等公司来说，铁矿石是关键的利润来源。

On Thursday, benchmark Australian ore for delivery to China rose $4.40, or 6.8 per cent, to$68.70 a tonne, according to a price assessment by the Steel Index.

钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)的价格评估显示，对华即时交割的基准澳大利亚铁矿石周四上涨4.40美元，至每吨68.70美元，涨幅达到6.8%。

The move came as Chinese steel prices enjoyed another big day of gains, rising nearly 9 percent to their highest level since September 2014.

铁矿石价格上涨的同时，中国钢材价格也经历了又一日的大涨——涨幅近9%——触及2014年9月以来最高的价位。

Increased availability of credit, restocking ahead of the summer construction period andtighter supplies following a string of closures last year are said to be behind the increase insteel Chinese prices.

据悉，中国钢材价格上涨背后的原因包括：信贷供应量增加，建筑商在夏季施工旺季前补充库存，以及去年关闭一批钢厂后钢材供应趋紧。

At the same time, BHP, Rio and Vale have all trimmed their production guidance, helping totighten a market that has been struggling with a supply glut.

与此同时，必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷全都下调了产量指引，这有助于让近来一直疲于应付供应过剩的市场“瘦身”。

However, most analysts and even some producers believe the rally has gone too far, too fastand are expecting prices to pull back.

但多数分析师乃至部分生产商都认为此次反弹幅度太大、速度太快，他们预计价格将会回落。

Speaking to reporters on Thursday the head of BHP Billiton in Australia said he did not expectthe rise in prices to hold for more than a few months because more supply is set to hit themarket.

必和必拓澳大利亚矿产业务负责人迈克•亨利(Mike Henry)周四对记者们说，他预计铁矿石价格的涨势维持不了几个月，因为更多的供应将给市场造成冲击。

“As you see more low-cost volume come to market, here in Australia as well as elsewhere, youwould expect that prices would not be sustained at these high levels,” said Mike Henry, BHP’shead of operations for Australian minerals.

他表示：“当你看到更多的低成本铁矿石进入市场——无论是在澳大利亚还是在别的地方——你就会预见到铁矿石价格无法维持在这么高的水平上。”

Equally the 50 per cent rise in Chinese steel prices — steel reinforcement bars that are widelyused in construction are currently trading at $430 a tonne — is also seen as unsustainable.

同样，中国钢材价格的涨势(已上涨了50%)也被认为是无法持续的。建筑施工中广泛使用的螺纹钢的交易价格目前为每吨430美元。

In its monthly report, the China Iron Ore and Steel Association said the rally could not lastbecause of rising production, which is estimated to have hit 70m tonnes in March, or 834mtonnes on an annualised basis.

中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron and Steel Association)在其月度报告中表示，由于产量增长，钢材价格的反弹势头无法持续。3月份中国钢材产量估计已达7000万吨，相当于年产量8.34亿吨。