特朗普想让美国奉行孤立主义

The damage a President Trump could do to theAmerican republic is thankfully limited. A presidentis not a king. There are laws and a court to enforcethem. There is Congress to block him. If a presidentbreaks the law, he can be impeached. America maybecome a more intolerant and chaotic place underDonald Trump, but thanks to its institutions therepublic will survive.

谢天谢地，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为总统对美利坚共和国的破坏将是有限的。总统不是国王。他们会受到法律和法庭的限制，而且还有国会的掣肘。如果总统违法，他可能受到弹劾。在特朗普的领导下，美国可能成为一个更加偏狭和混乱之地，但得益于其制度，美利坚共和国将会存活下来。

The world is a different matter. The president enjoys his or her greatest power in foreign policy.His power to use force is well known. As important, though, is what he can choose not to do. Hecan unilaterally refuse to defend an ally. He can choose to strike a bargain with Russiainstead of deterring it. He can pull out of a trade deal. There are fewer checks and balances.Damage done in one year may never be undone.

全世界的情况则有所不同。美国总统在外交政策上的权力最大。他动用武力的权力众所周知。然而，同样重要的是，他可以选择不做什么。他可以单方面拒绝捍卫盟友。他可以选择与俄罗斯达成协议而非威慑。他可以退出贸易协定。美国带来的制衡作用将会减弱。一年的破坏就可能永远难以消除。

A Trump administration would pose the greatest shock to international peace and stabilitysince the 1930s. This is not because Mr Trump would invade other countries but because hewould unilaterally liquidate the liberal international order that presidents have built anddefended since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If the word “isolationist” has any meaning, hequalifies as one.

特朗普政府对国际和平和稳定的冲击将会是上世纪30年代以来最大的。这不是因为特朗普将会入侵其他国家，而是因为他将会单方面地瓦解自富兰克林•德拉诺•罗斯福(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)起美国历任总统创建和捍卫的国际自由秩序。如果“孤立主义者”这个单词有意义的话，他就是一个孤立主义者。

Mr Trump has a coherent and consistent worldview that dates back almost 30 years when hespent $95,000 on a full-page advertisement in the New York Times to publish an open letter tothe American people on US foreign policy. It was this worldview that he described to theWashington Post editorial board on Monday. It appears in virtually every interview andspeech he has given about world affairs since the 1980s.

特朗普拥有一套连贯一致的世界观，其痕迹可以追溯至近30年前，当时他拿出9.5万美元在《纽约时报》(NewYork Times)刊登了一整版广告，向美国民众发表关于美国外交政策的公开信。他在本周一向《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)的编委描述了这种世界观。实际上自上世纪80年代以来，他在几乎每场关于世界事务的采访和演讲中都阐述了这种世界观。

Simply put, Mr Trump thinks America’s allies and partners are ripping it off and he wants out ofAmerica’s leadership role in the international order. Over and over again, Mr Trump hasquestioned why the US defends Japan, South Korea, Germany and other nations without beingpaid for it. Just this week, he promised to significantly diminish US involvement in Nato andwhen asked if America “gained anything” from having bases in east Asia he replied “personally Idon’t think so”. This is not about a more equitable share of the burden, which many have calledfor. Mr Trump believes that the US gains little from having allies unless it is paid handsomelypaid by them.

简言之，特朗普认为美国的盟友和合作伙伴在敲美国的“竹杠”，他希望美国退出国际秩序中的领导角色。特朗普一次次地质问，为何美国要不计报酬地捍卫日本、韩国、德国以及其他国家?就在本周，他承诺大幅削减美国在北约的参与，而且在被问及美国是否从东亚的基地“获得什么”的时候，他回答称“我个人认为没有”。这不是像许多人呼吁的那样更加公平地分担责任。特朗普相信，美国几乎没有从结盟中受益，除非盟友们支付丰厚报酬。

He also opposes every trade deal America has signed over the past 30 years. He wants to usetariffs and other protectionist measures to bludgeon other countries into accepting lopsidedagreements that disproportionately benefit the US. He has suggested charging other countriesfor use of the sea lanes. Under his presidency, the open global economy would slam shut.

他还反对美国在过去30年签署的所有贸易协定。他希望动用关税和其他保护主义措施来强迫其他国家接受让美国从中极大受益的不对称协议。他提议对其他使用航路的国家收取费用。如果他担任美国总统，开放的全球经济将砰然关闭。

As he shuns America’s allies, Mr Trump would seek to strike deals with Vladimir Putin,president of Russia, and other authoritarian strong men. Mr Trump has received Mr Putin’sendorsement and has called for much better relations with Russia.

在避开美国盟友的同时，特朗普会寻求和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)等专制的政治强人领袖达成协议。特朗普已经得到了普京的支持，并呼吁大力改善美俄关系。

Meanwhile, to deal with threats to the American homeland, Mr Trump has promised his ownChechnya-style scorched-earth policy of targeting civilians and using torture.

同时，为了应对美国国土的威胁，特朗普承诺实施他的车臣式焦土政策——把平民列为打击目标，并使用酷刑。

Some think that Mr Trump will moderate these positions if he is elected, but it is unlikely thata 70-year old who has held these views for decades and probably views himself as a prophetwill abandon them at exactly the moment he feels vindicated and empowered.

有些人认为，当选后特朗普的这些立场会有所缓和，但一个数十年来都抱着这些想法，并且很可能把自己看成先知的70岁的人，不太可能在他感到自己被证明有理而且掌握权力的那一刻放弃这些想法。

The day after his election, allies in Europe and Asia will rightly worry if their securityrelationship with the US remains intact. Russia and China will have an unprecedentedopportunity to achieve in a single presidential term what they thought would take decades,namely the destruction of the US-led alliance system.

在他当选之后，美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友完全有理由担忧它们与美国的安全合作关系是否还能保持原样。俄罗斯和中国将获得一个史无前例的机会在一届总统任期内完成它们此前认为需要花数十年才能实现的目标——即摧毁美国领导的同盟体系。

These are the true stakes of the 2016 election. The campaign will be unlike any other as thefundamental pillars of post-second world war American foreign policy are put up for debate.Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee, might be synonymous with theestablishment, but her destiny is clear. It is to explain why an open and liberal internationalorder benefits ordinary Americans. It is to show how the closing of the global economy, the endof alliances and dawning of an authoritarian age poses as great a threat to American interestsnow as it did in the late 1940s when the architecture of US leadership was created.

这是2016年的美国大选真正关系重大的地方。这场大选不同于其他任何一场，因为美国二战后外交政策的核心成为了辩论的焦点。很可能会成为民主党总统候选人的希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)或许是建制派的代名词，但她的使命很清楚。那就是解释为何自由开放的国际秩序让普通美国人受益，向他们展示国际经济的封闭、同盟的瓦解，以及威权时代的到来对美国利益威胁之大将不亚于上世纪40年代末由美国扮演领导角色的架构刚建立的时候。

The international order can survive many things — terrorist attacks, Russian aggression,Chinese revisionism and an international financial crisis — but the collapse of Americanleadership may prove a disaster too far.

国际秩序能够经受住许多东西的侵袭——恐怖主义袭击、俄罗斯的侵略、中国的修正主义和一场国际金融危机——但美国领导地位的崩塌很可能会被证明是一场破坏性过大的灾难。