像巴菲特那样投资

巴菲特

How Warren Buffett Does It

像巴菲特那样投资

Fifty years ago, a young investor named Warren Buffett took control of a failing textile company, Berkshire Hathaway. “I found myself ... invested in a terrible business about which I knew very little,” Buffett relates in his annual letter to shareholders, which was released over the weekend. “I became the dog who caught the car.”

在50年前，一个名叫沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的年轻投资者接手了一家经营不佳的纺织企业伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)。“我发现自己……投资了一桩糟糕的生意，而且我对它所知甚少，”巴菲特在周末发布的年度致股东信中写道。“我像是一只终于追上了汽车的狗”——得偿所愿，但不知道接下来该怎么办。

Buffett describes his approach in those days as “cigar butt” investing; buying shares of troubled companies with underpriced stocks was “like picking up a discarded cigar butt that had one puff remaining in it,” he writes. “Though the stub might be ugly and soggy, the puff would be free.” He continues: “Most of my gains in those early years ... came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices.”

巴菲特形容，他在那些日子的策略是“雪茄屁股”投资：从处境糟糕、股价过低的企业买进股票，就像是“捡起别人扔掉的只剩一口的雪茄屁股，”他写道。 “或许烟头很丑陋，而且软塌塌的，但剩下的那一口烟却是免费的。”他又说：“我最初那段时间的收益，大都……来源于对股价超低的平庸企业的投资。”

But that approach had limits. It took Charlie Munger, the Los Angeles lawyer who has been his longtime sidekick, to show him that there was another way to win at the investing game: “Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices,” Munger told him. “Instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.” Which is what Buffett’s been doing ever since.

但这种投资方式也有其局限。是查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)向他说明，在投资游戏中取胜，还有另一种方法。这名洛杉矶的律师后来成了巴菲特长期的左膀右臂。“忘掉你了解的那些用很棒的价格收购普通公司的做法吧，”芒格对巴菲特说。“应该反过来用普通的价格收购很棒的公司。”从那以后，巴菲特就一直如此行事。

He has done it in two ways. First — and this is what he is renowned for — he has bought stock in some of the great American companies of our time, stock that he has held not just for years, but for decades. Second, he has turned Berkshire Hathaway into a true conglomerate, which owns not just stocks but entire companies. Although Berkshire’s front office employs only 25 people, its companies have, in total, some 340,500 employees.

他这样做时采取了两种途径。第一，他从当下美国最大的一些公司购买股票，不只是持有几年，而是持有几十年。他正是因此而被人称道。第二，他把伯克希尔-哈撒韦转变成了一个真正的企业集团，不仅拥有股票，还拥有整家公司。尽管伯克希尔的总部只雇佣了25人，但其旗下公司总计雇佣了34.05万名员工。

How successful has the Buffett-Munger approach been? In the 50 years since Buffett took over Berkshire, its stock has appreciated by 1,826,163 percent. That is an astounding number.

巴菲特和芒格的投资策略有多么成功?在巴菲特接手伯克希尔以来的50年里，其股价上涨了1826163%。这可是个相当惊人的数字。

You would think, given Buffett’s success, that more people would try to emulate his approach to investing. It is not as if he hasn’t tried to explain how he does it. Every year, you can find a Buffett tutorial in his annual letter that the rest of us would do well to absorb — and practice.

你可能会认为，鉴于巴菲特取得了成功，应该会有更多人试图效仿他的投资策略。况且他也并非没有解释过自己的方法。每一年，人们都能从他的致股东信中，找到巴菲特式的投资指南，我们这些人如果掌握并加以实践，就会受益匪浅。

In the current letter, for instance, he makes the case — which has been made many times before — that a diversified portfolio of stocks “that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions” are less risky over the long term than other investment vehicles that are tied to the dollar. Clearly, that’s been his approach. He then goes on to bemoan the fact that too many investors — both little guys and investment professionals — do things that add risk: “Active trading, attempts to ‘time’ market movements, inadequate diversification, the payment of high and unnecessary fees ... and the use of borrowed money can destroy the decent returns that a life-long owner of equities would otherwise enjoy.”

例如，在今年的这封信里，他就阐述道，“在长时间段里分别买进，且持有时只产生小额管理费和手续费的”多样化的股票投资，长期来看风险远小于其他与货币挂钩的投资工具。这一点他在过去就阐述过很多次。显然，这一直是他的投资策略。接着他抱怨道，许多投资者，无论是散户还是专业投资者，都会做加大风险的事：“活跃地交易，试图抓准市场波动的‘时机’，投资多元化不足，支付不必要且过于高昂的费用……用借来的钱做投资，这些行为都可能会毁掉本来丰厚的回报。”

Another thing about Buffett is that he has never gotten caught up in fads. He only buys businesses that he understands and can predict where the business will be in a decade. He teaches this point in the current letter with a discussion of the conglomerates that sprung up in the 1960s and became the hot stocks of the moment. Jimmy Ling, who ran one such company, LTV, used to say that he looked for acquisitions where “2 plus 2 equals 5.”

巴菲特的另一个特点是，他从来不会陷入热潮当中。他只愿意收购那些他理解，而且能预测10年后走向的公司。在今年的信中，他通过讨论1960年代涌现出来，并成为当时股市热点的企业集团，阐述了这一观点。吉米·陵(Jimmy Ling)曾经就经营过这样一家名为LTV的公司。他曾说，他寻找的是“二加二等于五”的收购项目。

LTV, as conceived by Ling, of course, ceased to exist decades ago (though the company would go through several transformations and bankruptcy court before shuttering its last vestige in 2002). “Never forget that 2 + 2 will always equal 4,” writes Buffett. “And when someone tells you how old-fashioned that math is — zip up your wallet, take a vacation and come back in a few years to buy stocks at cheap prices.”

吉米·陵所构想的LTV当然在几十年前就已不复存在了(不过公司本身又经过了几轮转型和破产法庭的手续，最后剩下的摊子到2002年才关闭)。“千万不要忘记，二加二永远等于四，”巴菲特写道。“如果有人告诉你，这个数学算式太老套了，那就把钱收起来，去度个假，几年之后再回来低价买进股票。”

If it’s really this simple, why don’t more people try to invest like Buffett? One reason, I think, is that sound investing — buying when others are selling, holding for the long term, avoiding the hot stocks — requires a stronger stomach than most people have. When a stock is plummeting, it takes a certain strength to buy even more instead of selling in a panic. Most of us lack the temperament required for smart investing. The fundamental equanimity required to be a great investor is a rare thing.

如果真的这么简单，为什么没有更多人尝试像巴菲特那样投资呢?我想，一个理由在于，稳健的投资——在别人卖出时买进、长期持有、避开热门股票——需要有超出大多数人的胆色。股市大跌时，买进更多股票，而不是惊慌地抛售，需要有某种力量才行。我们大多数人都缺乏明智投资所需的秉性。成为伟大投资者所需的骨子里的沉着镇静，是一种罕有的特质。

The second reason is that investing the Warren Buffett way is a lot more complicated than he makes it sound. Can you predict where a business will be in 10 years? Of course not. But he can — and does.

第二个理由在于，像沃伦·巴菲特那样投资，比他表达的要复杂得多。你能预测一桩生意10年后会怎样吗?当然不能。但是巴菲特能，而且他预测对了。

In a few months, the faithful will flock to Omaha to attend Berkshire’s annual meeting — “Woodstock for capitalists,” Buffett likes to call it. For six hours, Buffett and Munger will be on stage, before some 40,000 people, cracking wise, while making their investment decisions sound like simplicity itself.

几个月后，巴菲特的忠实拥趸就会涌向奥马哈，参加伯克希尔的年会——巴菲特喜欢把这个活动称作“资本家的伍德斯托克”。巴菲特和芒格会在台上待6个小时，面对4万名观众，大谈投资智慧，并让他们的投资决策听起来无比简单。