解决汇率问题不能靠牺牲贸易

We have seen this film before. The US Congress isthreatening a trade war to punish “currencymanipulators”, those it deems to be boosting theirtrade balance artificially at the expense of America.Ordinarily, a threat of legislative action like thisfolds in the face of a presidential veto. In the pastthis has resembled a good cop-bad cop routine. TheWhite House would point to anger on Capitol Hill inorder to persuade the likes of China and Japan tocurb manipulation against the dollar.

我们以前看到过这种景象：美国国会正威胁要发动贸易战来惩罚“汇率操纵国”，即那些它认为以牺牲美国利益为代价、人为提振本国贸易收支的国家。通常情况下，美国国会采取立法行动的威胁会因美国总统行使否决权而止步。过去，这就像是一种“有人唱白脸、有人唱红脸”的例行公事。为了说服中国和日本等国收敛针对本币兑美元汇率的操纵，美国政府会以国会对此感到愤怒向这些国家施压。

 

 

This time, however, the number of Democrats and Republicans pledging their support forlegislation looks unusually potent. President Barack Obama rightly insists that dealing withcurrency devaluation should be separated from matters of trade. He must hold firm both onthe Trade Promotion Authority he seeks from Congress — that enables him to submit “fasttrack” deals to an up-or-down vote — as well as the Transpacific Partnership talks that are intheir final stages. Both Atlantic and Pacific trade deals are at a crossroads. It would be asetback to global growth prospects if they were sabotaged by politics in the very country thatinitiated them.

不过，这一次，承诺支持上述立法的民主党和共和党人数似乎异乎寻常地有说服力。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)坚称，应对货币贬值是一回事，贸易是另一回事。他是对的。他必须在两方面坚守立场：一是寻求从国会得到“贸易促进授权”(Trade Promotion Authority)，该授权能让他把“快车道”(fast-track)协议提交直接表决(up-or-down vote);二是已进入最后阶段的《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)谈判。跨大西洋和跨太平洋贸易协定目前均处在十字路口。如果这两个贸易协定被其发起国的政治斗争破坏，将对全球经济增长前景构成打击。

However, Mr Obama should take nothing for granted. John Boehner, the Speaker of the USHouse of Representatives, has said he needs at least 50 Democratic votes to pass TPA. Yet 150of the 188-strong Democratic caucus have already signed a petition opposing it. Unlike onprevious rounds, they are joined by a growing number of Republicans who object to anythingthat increases Mr Obama’s authority.

然而，奥巴马不应认为这一切不用费力就能得到。美国众议院议长约翰•博纳(John Boehner)已经表示，他需要至少50张民主党的赞成票才能通过贸易促进授权。但在众议院的总共188名民主党议员中，已有150人签署请愿书反对贸易促进授权。与前几次的情况不同，这次有越来越多的共和党人也加入了这些民主党人的阵营，因为他们反对一切会扩充奥巴马权力的议案。

Their motives may be different. The left smells a multinational rat that would gnaw at US labourand environmental standards. The right wishes to poke Mr Obama in the eye. Combined, theyare an unholy alliance capable of wrecking global trade negotiations.

这些反对者的动机可能各不相同。其中的左翼闻到了一只会啃食美国劳工及环保标准的“跨国老鼠”的气味。右翼则希望给奥巴马添堵。这两类人合起来，形成了一个能够毁掉全球贸易谈判的邪恶联盟。

The main problem is that such a measure is unworkable. It would slap duties on imports fromcountries deemed to be manipulators, this being defined as central bank interventions aimed atproviding a currency subsidy. In practice these are hard to prove. One person’s devaluation isanother’s monetary policy.

但更主要的问题在于，惩罚所谓汇率操纵国的做法行不通。它会对美国从那些被认为是汇率操纵国的国家进口的产品强加额外关税，这里的汇率操纵被定义为央行为提供一种汇率补贴而干预汇率。在实践中，汇率操纵很难被证实。一些人认为是压低汇率的事情，另一些看来却是正当的货币政策。

It could also rebound on the US. Many, including China, objected to the US quantitative easingprogrammes on precisely such grounds. The US is now complaining about the impact of theEuropean Central Bank’s QE. Both actions were launched to stimulate demand but alsoboosted exports. Deciding which are manipulations is not a precise science, as the IMF hasmade clear. Shunting adjudication to the World Trade Organisation would not alter thatobjection.

美国还可能因此搬起石头砸了自己的脚。包括中国在内的很多国家，曾经正是以这样的理由反对美国的量化宽松(QE)计划。美国如今则在抱怨欧洲央行(ECB)量化宽松的影响。这两个举措的推出均是为了刺激需求，但也是为了刺激出口。正如国际货币基金组织(IMF)阐明的那样，判定哪些行为属于汇率操纵并不是一门精确的科学。即使将判定工作转交给世贸组织(WTO)，这一反对理由也依然成立。

The second problem is that it would ruin any chances of a trade deal. The 13-member TPP talksare nearing conclusion. If Congress inserted a currency clause into the final deal it wouldprompt Japan to abandon the process — and possibly others.

第二个问题是，它会毁掉一切达成贸易协定的机会。13国参与的TPP谈判正接近尾声。如果美国国会在最终协定中插入一项汇率条款，将导致日本退出谈判——其他参与国可能也会如此。

The same applies to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks, which are at anearlier stage. Germany’s record export growth is partly helped by the euro’s recentdepreciation. Any measure that punished the eurozone for its currency’s downward drift wouldonly hasten the protectionism US lawmakers say that they are trying to stop.

这同样适用于《跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协定》(Transatlantic Trade and InvestmentPartnership，简称TTIP)谈判，该协定的谈判尚处于早期阶段。德国创纪录的出口增长，部分得益于近期的欧元贬值。如果因欧元汇率下滑而采取措施惩罚欧元区，只会让美国立法者口口声声努力防止的贸易保护主义更早现身。

The dollar is currently riding high because US growth outpaces most of its partners. If therecovery has returned fewer middle class jobs than hoped to US shores, it is because ofautomation, not competitive devaluation. In any case, trade is not the forum with which toaddress US currency concerns. Mr Obama knows this. So do cooler heads in Congress. Let ushope they prevail.

由于美国的经济增长快于它的大部分贸易伙伴，美元汇率目前正处于上涨之中。如果说美国经济复苏带来的中产阶级就业岗位回流少于预期，那也是由自动化、而非竞争性货币贬值导致的。无论如何，贸易都不是化解美国汇率担忧的场所。奥巴马明白这点。美国国会中头脑较冷静的议员也明白这点。我们希望他们能占得上风吧。