油价暴跌，OPEC决定不减产

油价暴跌，OPEC决定不减产

VIENNA — The oil cartel OPEC decided on Thursday not to cut petroleum production, despite the plunge in prices in recent months that has indicated the diminishing clout of the organization.

维也纳——石油输出国组织(OPEC)周四决定不减少石油产量，尽管最近几个月油价暴跌意味着，这个石油卡特尔的影响力正不断减弱。

On news of the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, fell an additional $4 to a four-year low of about $73. American crude dropped below $70, an even more significant threshold.

OPEC宣布上述决定的同时，全球基准布伦特原油的价格又下跌了四美元，降至73美元左右的四年低点。美国原油价格则降到了70美元以下。70美元是一个更加重要的分水岭。

A more than 30 percent decline in prices in recent months has shaken the 12-member group. For three years, OPEC had little trouble keeping prices in the $100-a-barrel range that many of its members consider satisfactory.

石油价格最近几个月下跌了超过30%，令这个12国组织受到了震动。三年来，OPEC一直可以轻松地让油价保持在每桶100美元左右的价格，这个价格被许多成员国认为是令人满意的。

But markets have spun out of OPEC’s control of late. Prices have come under pressure as global output of crude oil outstripped demand this year. Analysts forecast excess supplies of crude to continue to build in 2015.

但如今，市场已经脱离了OPEC的控制。今年全球原油产量的供大于求令价格承压。分析师预计2015年，原油供应在过量的基础上将继续增长。

The main new source of supply is oil extracted from shale in the United States, which is expected to add about one million barrels a day of oil production this year and an additional one million barrels a day in 2015.

主要的新供应来源是美国的页岩油，预计今年每天将生产100万桶石油，2015年的日产量将再增加100万桶。

OPEC seems at a loss about how to cope with this new source of competition and is also struggling to influence other big producers outside the organization like Russia and Brazil. Unable to come up with a strategy for handling these new developments, the cartel has decided not to intervene, evidently hoping that low prices will eventually curb production in the United States.

OPEC似乎不知道如何应对来自美国的新竞争，也在努力影响该组织之外的其他大的石油生产国，比如俄罗斯和巴西。由于无法拿出应对这些最新进展的策略，OPEC已经决定不去干预，希望低油价最终会限制美国的产量。

The price decline “does not mean we should really rush and do something," OPEC’s secretary general, Abdalla El-Badri, told reporters after the meeting here on Thursday. “We don’t want to panic,” he said. “We want to see how the market behaves.”

油价下跌“并不意味着我们应该急着采取什么行动”，周四在维也纳召开会议之后，OPEC秘书长阿卜杜拉·萨利姆·巴德里(Abdalla El-Badri)告诉记者。“我们不想慌了阵脚，”他说。“我们想要看看市场的反应。”

Even though lower prices will hurt oil producers in the United States, the American economy will probably benefit as consumers have more money to spend and companies’ energy bills decline. Europe and Japan, both large oil importers, are also likely to get a boost from lower prices, although in Europe high taxes on energy limit gains for consumers.

低油价将损害美国石油生产商的利益，但由于消费者有了更多钱来消费，企业的能源成本下降，美国经济可能会受益。欧洲和日本都需要进口大量石油，它们可能也会因为油价下跌而受益，虽然欧洲较高的能源税率限制了消费者能够获得的利益。

Lower prices, on the other hand, could be very painful for OPEC producers, who depend heavily on oil revenue.

另一方面，油价下跌可能会令OPEC的产油国十分苦恼，因为这些国家严重依赖石油收入。

Some of the world’s largest exporters of oil, including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, are members of OPEC. The group meets at least a couple of times a year, usually in Vienna, where the organization has its headquarters, but sometimes more often to discuss and try to manage the global oil markets.

全球最大的石油出口国中，伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、委内瑞拉等都是OPEC的成员。该组织一年至少会召开十几次会议，通常是在其总部所在地维也纳，但有时会更频繁地会面，讨论并尝试管理全球石油市场。

While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have each stashed away hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to buffer the effects of lower prices, Iran, Algeria and Venezuela, for example, will struggle to finance their government budgets at current price levels, according to a recent study by Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at Roubini Global Economics.

鲁比尼全球经济咨询公司(Roubini Global Economics)分析师蕾切尔·津巴(Rachel Ziemba)最近的一项研究表明，尽管沙特阿拉伯、科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国各自均已积攒了数千亿美元的储蓄，以缓冲价格走低带来的影响，但伊朗、阿尔及利亚和委内瑞拉等国，将难以在目前的油价水平上为政府预算筹集资金。

Venezuela and some other producers badly wanted a cut to prop up prices and will be bitterly disappointed by the meeting’s outcome.

迫切希望减产以抬高油价的委内瑞拉和其他部分产油国，将对会议结果深感失望。

Analysts say that Thursday’s announcement signals a radical change on the part of OPEC. Bhushan Bahree, an OPEC analyst at the market research IHS firm, called the announcement “a major tactical shift.” For decades OPEC has intervened to manage oil prices, cutting production when necessary. “Now they are defending volume and letting the rest take care of itself,” he said.

分析人士称，周四的通告表明，OPEC发生了巨大的变化。市场研究公司IHS的OPEC分析师布尚·巴里(Bhushan Bahree)称通告是“一个重大的战术转变”。数十年来，为了管理油价，OPEC一直从中干预，在必要时削减产量。“现在它们捍卫产量，其他的顺其自然，”他说。

Analysts say that at least some OPEC powers appear to have recognized that lower prices may prevail for a considerable time. In that situation, the organization needs to work on regaining market share.

分析人士称，至少部分OPEC国家似乎承认，油价走低可能会持续相当长一段时间。在那种情况下，该组织需要努力夺回市场份额。

While exports of crude oil from the United States are still restricted, the surge in output is being felt on global markets as a result of the increased export of refined petroleum products like gasoline.

尽管美国的原油出口依然受限，但因为汽油等成品油出口的增加，全球市场都感受到了产量激增的影响。

American imports from OPEC and elsewhere have also been sharply reduced, forcing OPEC producers to compete for the remaining markets in Asia and Europe. Iran, for instance, is storing as much as 100,000 barrels a day on tankers because it is unable to find markets.

美国也大幅减少了从OPEC和其他地方的进口，迫使OPEC产油国争夺剩下的亚洲和欧洲市场。比如，因为无法找到市场，伊朗每天要在油轮上储存多达10万桶油。

Analysts say the surge in supply from the United States poses particular challenges to OPEC because there is little the producers’ group can do but hope that lower prices will eventually discourage investment in drilling in the United States, thus reducing production.

分析人士称，来自美国的供应量的剧增对OPEC产油国构成了非同寻常的挑战，因为除了寄希望于油价走低最终将抑制美国的钻探投资，进而减少产量外，这个产油国组织几乎别无他法。