普京进军乌克兰试探西方底线

普京进军乌克兰试探西方底线

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin has left little doubt he intends to cripple Ukraine’s new government, forcing it to make concessions or face the de facto partition of areas populated predominantly by ethnic Russians, from the Crimea to Odessa to the industrial heartland in the east.

莫斯科——俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)最近的举动，几乎让人们毫不怀疑他打算瓦解乌克兰的新政府，迫使后者要么做出让步，要么接受主要由俄罗斯族聚居的区域被实际分割出去的后果，这些地区有克里米亚、敖德萨，甚至包括东部的工业中心。

That strategy has been pursued aggressively by subterfuge, propaganda and bald military threat, taking aim as much at the United States and its allies in Europe as Ukraine itself. The pivotal question now for Kiev and Western capitals, is how boldly Mr. Putin continues to push his agenda, risking a more heated military and diplomatic conflict.

俄罗斯正通过诡辩、宣传，以及强横的军事威胁极力推行这一目的，其目标既有美国，也有美国在欧洲的盟国，以及乌克兰。对基辅和西方国家的政府而言，现在的关键问题在于，普京会以多么强横的姿态继续推行自己的目标——这可能会引发一场更为激烈地军事和外交冲突。

So far, the Kremlin has shown no sign of yielding to international pressure — but it also has not taken the most provocative step yet, openly ordering Russian troops to reinforce those already in Crimea and expand its incursion into southern or eastern Ukraine.

到目前为止，克里姆林宫还没有表现出会屈服于国际压力的迹象，不过它也还没做出挑衅性最强的举动——公开命令俄国军队增援已经进入克里米亚的军队，并将进犯的范围延伸到乌克兰南部或东部。

Asked on Sunday about President Obama’s suspension of preparations to attend the Group of 8 summit scheduled for June in Sochi — along with Canada, France and Britain — Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, replied cuttingly and dismissively. “It’s not a minus for Russia,” he said. “It will be a minus for the G-8.”

“八国集团”(G8)峰会定于6月在俄罗斯索契举行，奥巴马总统中止了参会的准备工作，加拿大、法国和英国也做出了同样的姿态。周日在被问及此事时，普京的发言人德米特里·S·佩斯科夫(Dmitri S. Peskov)不以为意地干脆做答，“这不是俄罗斯的损失，是G8的损失。”

Mr. Putin has yet to make public remarks on the crisis in Ukraine, leaving his ultimate goals uncertain and unpredictable. Yet with a strategy aimed at blunting the impact of a popular uprising that sought to push the country away from Russia and deepen ties with Europe, Mr. Putin has already left the fledgling government disorganized, discredited and forced to compromise on terms that would keep the country firmly within Russia’s sphere of influence, especially regarding the Crimea peninsula.

普京还没有就乌克兰的危机公开发表评论，这让他的最终目标显得不确定又难以预测。然而面对着旨在推动乌克兰远离俄罗斯，加深与欧洲联系的大规模示威，普京的策略是挫伤示威的影响。在这种策略之下，普京已经让羽翼未丰的新政府陷入了组织失灵、无法取信与人的境地，迫使它做出妥协，让乌克兰完完全全地保留在俄罗斯的势力范围内，尤其是对于克里米亚半岛。

The Kremlin’s pledge to protect compatriots in Ukraine from suppression of a Western-minded majority mirrors Russia’s role in other disputed territories of the former Soviet republics over the years, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Those two breakaway regions of Georgia survived in a diplomatic limbo after the collapse of the Soviet Union with overt and covert Kremlin pressure until war erupted in 2008 and Russia routed ill-prepared Georgian troops.

克里姆林宫宣誓要保护位于乌克兰的同胞免于受到心向西方的多数派压制，这种表态与俄罗斯在其他前苏联加盟共和国的领土争议中扮演的角色极为相似，如阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯。这两个从格鲁吉亚分裂出来的区域在苏联解体后，外交地位一直尴尬，也一直受到克里姆林宫或明或暗的压力，直到2008年爆发战争，俄罗斯击溃了准备不周的格鲁吉亚军队。

Russia brushed aside strong warnings from the United States and others at the time and recognized them as independent countries — and paid little price for it in the long run. Mr. Putin appears to be calculating again that Russia is too important for other countries to respond more forcefully, despite warnings like those by Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday that the United States would consider an array of sanctions that could include freezing assets and travel of senior officials here.

当时，俄罗斯对美国和其他国家发表的强烈警告置之不理，承认这两个地区是独立国家，而且从长期来看，几乎没有为其所作所为付出代价。尽管受到了一些警告，但普京似乎又在盘算着，由于俄罗斯十分重要，别国不会做出更有力的反应。美国国务卿约翰·克里(John Kerry)周日警告说，美国会考虑采取一系列制裁措施，可能包括冻结资产和禁止俄罗斯高级官员前往美国。

Any escalation of Russia’s military intervention, especially if it meets resistance and bloodshed, will almost certainly rattle investors and plunge Russia’s unsteady economy into free fall. With the value of the ruble already falling, there was quick speculation of a rocky start when the stock market opens on Monday.

一旦俄罗斯的军事干预升级，尤其是如果遭遇抵抗、发生流血的话，几乎可以肯定会惊扰投资者，致使俄罗斯原本就不稳定的经济受到重创。鉴于卢布汇率已经出现贬值，人们很快就揣测，周一股市开盘时会出现振荡。

For now, such calculations appear to be secondary to the fury that the toppling of Mr. Yanukovych’s government has caused inside the Kremlin. Ukraine has deep historical, social and religious connections to Russia that are often underestimated in the United States, especially. More significantly, Mr. Putin and the close circle of aides he relies on most, view the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovych as a coup orchestrated by the West to undercut Russia’s vital interests.

亚努科维奇政府被推翻在克里姆林宫内部引发了强烈的愤怒，目前来看在这种盛怒之下，经济的得失只是次要的。乌克兰与俄罗斯之间有着深厚的历史、社会、宗教联系，这一点常常被人低估，尤其是被美国低估。更重要的是，普京和他身边那些最受信赖的助手，认为亚努科维奇被推翻是西方为了削弱俄罗斯的关键利益而一手策划的政变。

Sergei Utkin, the head of the Department of Strategic Assessment, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that the relentless anti-Americanism on state media was in the past dismissed as crude propaganda that served a transparent political purpose but appeared now to reflect the actual worldview of the Kremlin. “It’s a catastrophe for Ukraine and for Russia,” he said. “The problem is that quite a few people in Russia don’t understand the consequences. They believe the country is strong and can do whatever it wants to do.”

俄罗斯科学院(Russian Academy of Sciences)下属的战略评估部(Department of Strategic Assessment)负责人谢尔盖·乌特金(Sergei Utkin)说，过去官方媒体上铺天盖地的反美论调都被当做拙劣的宣传，显然是服务于政治目的，但现在，似乎的确反映了克里姆林宫的世界观。“这对乌克兰和俄罗斯都是一场灾难，”他说。“问题是在俄罗斯，有相当一部分人不理解它的后果。他们认为国家很强大，想做什么就可以做什么。”

How Mr. Putin perceives these events remains central to what happens next, experts said. Does he believe he has already succeeded by making clear that Russia has the will and the means to force its agenda in Ukraine? Or does he feel the job is only half done and that having stoked Russian nationalism, he has no choice but to plow ahead?

专家表示，普京对这些事件持何种看法，仍然对事态下一步的发展具有重要的影响。他是不是相信，通过展示俄罗斯有意愿也有能力在乌克兰推行自己的目的，他已经取得了成功?又或者他认为任务只是完成了一半，而且既然已经鼓动起了俄罗斯民族主义情绪，他只能向前推进?

The deployment of Russian troops across Crimea — which Mr. Peskov refused to acknowledge — has already effectively severed Crimea from Ukrainian control, even as it provoked tense confrontation with Ukrainian troops at some bases. It allowed a new regional leader to plead for Russia’s protection and gave the Kremlin the pretense to oblige.

在克里米亚全境部署的俄罗斯部队，实际上已经切断了乌克兰对克里米亚的控制。尽管俄军的部署已经在某些基地激起了与乌克兰部队的紧张对峙，但佩斯科夫仍然拒绝承认俄军在克里米亚的行动。俄军的举动促使一位新任地区领导人要求俄罗斯给予保护，并且向克里姆林宫提供了介入的口实。

Ethnic Russian supporters — abetted by Russia’s secret services, according to Ukrainian and foreign officials — are now mounting demonstrations in other cities, including Kharkiv and Donetsk, that could lead to similar calls for Russian intervention.

乌克兰及外国官员表示，俄罗斯族支持者在俄罗斯秘密机关的唆使下，现在正在其他城市举行示威，包括哈尔科夫和顿涅茨克，这些示威也可能会引起呼吁俄罗斯干预的类似呼声。

The unanimous vote by Russia’s upper house of Parliament on Saturday night to authorize an intervention, after a debate that vilified the United States in ways reminiscent of the darkest periods of the Cold War, took place after the first Russian reinforcements had already begun arriving, according to Ukrainian and other Western officials. The vote nevertheless gave Mr. Putin a strong hand to play, threatening a much larger conventional military operation to protect “citizens and compatriots” in Ukraine, as Mr. Putin said in telephone conversations with Mr. Obama and the United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, according to the Kremlin.

周六夜间俄罗斯议会上议院一致同意授权采取干预，表决前的辩论中诋毁美国的语气让人想起了冷战中最黑暗的时期。乌克兰及其他西方国家官员表示，表决前俄罗斯的第一批增援部队已经开始抵达。不过，表决还是向普京赋予了更有力的资源，使他可以发起更大规模的常规军事行动，从而在乌克兰保卫“公民和同胞”。克里姆林宫称，普京在与奥巴马和联合国秘书长通电话时用过这样的说法。

Mr. Peskov said that Mr. Putin had not yet ordered the operation but now had “the full array of options available to him” if the crisis worsened. He emphasized that Russia supported a unified Ukraine, but also argued that the country’s new leaders had violated the agreement brokered by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland to establish a unity government that would leave Mr. Yanukovych in place as president until new elections in December.

佩斯科夫说，普京并没有下令采取行动，不过一旦现在危机恶化，“他手边所有的选项都可以使用”。他强调，俄罗斯支持统一的乌克兰，但也表示该国新领导人违反了在德国、法国、波兰外长斡旋下达成的协议，即建立一个联合政府，由亚努科维奇担任总统，直至12月举行新的选举。

He suggested a diplomatic resolution would begin with a return to the terms of those agreements. That would mean the dismissal of the new interim government that the United States and others have already endorsed and the return of Mr. Yanukovych, who appeared on Friday at a surreal news conference in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after dropping out of sight for a week. “He may be the last man to present himself for the presidency,” Mr. Peskov said, reflecting the greatly diminished reputation of Mr. Yanukovych in Moscow now, “but he is the legitimate one.”

他提到，回归那些协议的条款之后，才可以通过外交方式解决。但那就意味着解散美国和其他国家已经表示过支持的新临时政府，并且让亚努科维奇重新担任总统。上周五，亚努科维奇在去向不明一周之后，在俄罗斯城市顿河畔罗斯托夫举行了一场离奇的新闻发布会。佩斯科夫说，“他可能是最不适合角逐总统职位的人，”这反映出亚努科维奇在莫斯科的声望已经大大受损。“但他才是合法的那一个。”