中国房地产公司的苦日子开始了

China's property companies have had a tough few weeks. The really hard times may just be starting.
近几周，中国的房地产公司度日如年。然而真正艰难的时刻或许才刚刚开始。

Property-market transactions have fallen off a cliff since Beijing announced several tightening measures in mid-April. Property website Soufun.com, in a survey of 24 major cities, reported sales were down 40% in the four weeks after those moves.
自北京于4月中旬宣布数条紧缩措施之后，房地产市场的交易量直线下落。房地产网站搜房网在对24个主要城市进行调查后指出，在这些措施出台后的四周时间里，房屋交易量下跌40%。

What's not clear yet is how this will affect price levels. China's data on property aren't very comprehensive, but the best measure -- a survey of 70 cities carried out by the national statistics bureau -- suggested prices were still rising fast in April, up 12.8% on year. Figures for May are due this week.
这将对房价产生何种影响尚不得而知。中国的房地产数据并不十分全面，但国家统计局对70个城市进行的调查显示，4月房价仍然上涨较快，同比上涨12.8%。这是最好的估计。5月的数据将于本周公布。

Prices may be sticky for a while, as developers cling to hope that the sales slump will prove temporary. A more realistic scenario -- given signs Beijing remains determined to cool the market -- is of on-year prices flattening out and even falling as 2010 progresses.
由于开发商希望销量骤减只是暂时现象，价格或许仍将坚挺一段时间。鉴于北京决心给房地产市场降温的迹象，更现实的推测是2010年房价同比持平，甚至下跌。

That likely means further pain for property stocks in China, despite some research analysts' optimism that the bottom has already been reached. The average one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio for the sector has dipped to just under 10 this month, below the average level of 13.6 over the past decade. Still, that's some way ahead of the last trough of around five times forward earnings seen toward the end of 2008, according to Royal Bank of Scotland research.
这很可能意味着，尽管部分研究分析师对股市已经触底持乐观态度，但中国的房地产股很可能还将承担更多的痛苦。这个月，这一板块的平均未来一年的预期市盈率已跌至略低于10倍，且低于过去10年的平均水平──13.6倍。尽管如此，据苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)研究显示，仍有可能跌至2008年底时的最近一次谷底，即预期市盈率为五倍左右。

For sure, some stocks may prove less resilient than others. Companies that are reliant for profits on one city -- such as Sino-Ocean Land Holdings or Longfor Properties in Beijing -- may suffer, says Mirae Asset Securities.
当然，部分股票或许比其它股票的抗跌性差。未来资产证券(Mirae Asset Securities)说，北京远洋地产或龙湖地产等仅依赖于一个城市获得利润的公司或许损失巨大。

Larger players with businesses that are more diversified across China, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land or Shimao Property Holdings, could stay above the pack.
在中国各地的业务更为多样化的更大型地产公司，如中国海外发展有限公司、华润置地有限公司和世茂集团等，可能情况稍好。

Even counting on this is risky. The danger is that they, too, will get swept along as the prevailing wind of bad feeling about China's property sector blows stronger.
但它们也会有风险。随着中国房地产市场恶化的感觉越来越强且开始横扫一切之后，这些公司也将无法幸免。