当奥巴马和莫迪惺惺相惜

Obama and Modi See Mutual Benefit in Breaking More Ice

当奥巴马和莫迪惺惺相惜

NEW DELHI — Ever since India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, visited President Obama in the fall, the word in New Delhi has been that the two men — one a former Hindu activist, the other a former law professor — had “chemistry.”

新德里——自印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)去年秋天与奥巴马会面以来，新德里一直有传言称，曾经分别是印度教活动人士和法学教授的两人之间，发生了“化学反应”。

Mr. Obama broke the ice by leaving his White House staff behind to give Mr. Modi a personal 15-minute tour of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial. Soon after, Mr. Modi decided to invite Mr. Obama to Republic Day celebrations this month, becoming the first Indian leader to choose an American as his guest for the spectacular annual parade.

最开始，是奥巴马把白宫工作人员留在身后，独自带领莫迪前往小马丁·路德·金雕像(Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial)处参观了15分钟。不久后，莫迪决定邀请奥巴马出席本月的共和日(Republic Day)庆祝活动，成为首位在一年一度的盛大阅兵式上，邀请美国人作为主宾的印度领导人。

It is hard to say who was more taken aback: the Americans — Mr. Obama’s attendance required him to juggle the timing of the State of the Union address — or the Indians, when Mr. Obama said yes. He is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on Sunday.

很难说当奥巴马接受邀请时，是美国人更震惊，还是印度人更震惊，因为他还需要国情咨文(State of the Union address)的时间。奥巴马定于周日抵达新德里。

The emerging good will between the two leaders was not preordained. Mr. Modi came into office with a formidable piece of baggage, having been blacklisted by the United States government for nearly a decade over his handling of religious riots in Gujarat, the state he led. American diplomats’ efforts to mend fences were late and awkward, and Mr. Modi is known to hold a grudge.

两位领导人之间不断显现的善意，并非自然而然。莫迪上台时，背负着一个巨大的污点。他曾是古吉拉特邦的领导人，因为应对该邦宗教暴乱的方式不当，在近十年的时间里，一直名列美国的黑名单之上。美国外交官修复关系的行动较晚且颇为笨拙。据外界所知，莫迪心怀不满。

Beneath the surface of the two leaders’ personal relationship are the shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics. With the expansion of Chinese power into the Indian Ocean, American and Indian interests in the region are gradually converging. It is difficult to say which government was more quietly gratified this month when Sri Lanka’s Beijing-aligned president lost his re-election bid, making it less likely that the island off India’s coast would eventually provide a foothold for Chinese military expansion.

在两位领导人私人关系的背后，是不断变化的地缘政治格局。随着中国的实力向印度洋扩张，美国和印度在该地区的利益逐渐交汇。本月，亲北京的斯里兰卡总统连任失败，于是，距离印度海岸不远的这个岛国，最终为中国的军事扩张提供立足点的可能性降低了。很难说美国政府和印度政府中，哪个在私下里更高兴。

And aides to Mr. Modi say the yearslong discussion of his human rights record concealed an important fact: He is, compared with nearly all of the Indian leaders who preceded him, quite pro-American.

莫迪的助手表示，莫迪的人权记录引发了多年的讨论，但这却掩盖了一个重要的事实：与印度过去几乎所有的领导人相比，他是相当亲美的。

“He was always very canny in recognizing that the United States was important for his own ambitions, and for Indian ambitions,” said Ashley Tellis, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of a new report on the two countries’ relationship. “What was missing was that connective tissue which takes what he knew in his head and translates it into action.”

“他总是很精明地认识到，不管是对他自己的野心，还是对印度的野心，美国都很重要，”卡内基国际和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高级研究员阿什利·泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)说。“缺的是那种将他头脑里的认识转化成行动的联系纽带。”泰利斯最近就两国关系撰写了一份报告。

The meeting between the two leaders in Washington, he said, provided that emotional turning point.

他说，两位领导人在华盛顿举行的会晤，提供了情感上的转折点。

This week has brought a marathon of last-minute negotiations, mainly over issues that the United States and India have been grappling with for years.

本周两国马不停蹄地开展了许多最后时刻的谈判，主要是围绕美国和印度多年来一直试图解决的问题。

Mr. Modi has styled himself as a detonator of roadblocks, and some headway may be made this time. A central obstacle is the sweeping liability law passed by Parliament in 2010 that froze plans for American corporations to construct nuclear power plants in India. Negotiators are also trying to finalize major defense purchases and to close gaps on exports of Indian pharmaceuticals, some of which the United States bans over patent disputes and safety concerns.

莫迪把自己塑造成了一个障碍消除者，这次他或许会取得一些进展。一个核心障碍是印度议会2010年通过的一项赔偿责任法，该法冻结了美国企业在印度修建核电站的计划，影响深远。此外，谈判人员还试图敲定重大的国防采购协议，并弥合两国就印度制药企业对外出口药品存在的分歧。因为专利争端和安全顾虑，美国禁止进口部分印度药物。

American officials, meanwhile, have pressed for India to follow China’s lead and agree to an ambitious target to limit carbon emissions, although they have played down expectations for a breakthrough. But the officials said the potential seemed to make another trip to India worthwhile, making Mr. Obama the first American president to visit twice during his tenure.

与此同时，美国官员要求印度效仿中国，同意一个宏伟的碳排放目标。不过美方已经降低了对取得突破性进展的期望。但官员们表示，这种可能性似乎意味着再次访问印度是值得的，这将使奥巴马成为首位在任期间两度访印的美国总统。

“Our hope is that the chemistry between the leaders and the personal relationship can lead to positive outcomes for our country,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, the president’s deputy national security adviser. “And so it’s worth the investment in the relationship with the country, the leader and the people of India.”

“我们希望，这两位领导人的默契和私人关系，可以为我们的国家带来积极的成果，”奥巴马总统的副国家安全顾问本杰明·J·罗兹(Benjamin J. Rhodes)说，“因此，投入更多精力，与印度政府、这位领导人，以及印度人民打好关系是值得的。”

Famously reserved, Mr. Obama does not forge close relationships with other world leaders easily. But Mr. Modi has been an exception, aides said, as the two leaders found some shared experiences.

以克制著称的奥巴马并不会轻易地与他国领导人建立亲密的关系。但幕僚们说，由于两位领导人发现了一些共同的经历，莫迪已经成了一个例外。

“Just the humble origins from which both of them came from and the opportunities presented to both of them” created a “certain space in which the two leaders were able to engage in these conversations,” said Philip Reiner, Mr. Obama’s top adviser on South Asia.

“单是他们二人平凡的出身，以及他们面前的机遇”，就构成了“一个能让两位领导人开展这些对话的空间”，奥巴马的南亚问题高级顾问菲利普·赖纳(Philip Reiner)说。

They now stand at very different points, one man confronting the question of how he will stand in history and the other enjoying international celebrity after years of harsh criticism from the West. Mr. Modi, in particular, has given careful thought to the symbolic takeaway of the visit for each leader.

他们目前处在截然不同的位置，一个面临着会有何种历史地位的问题，另一个在受到西方持续多年的严厉批评后，正在享受国际上的赞誉。莫迪尤其仔细思考了这次访问对于双方有怎样的象征意义。

“Go for the big guy himself, and his international rehabilitation is complete,” said Ashok Malik, a columnist who advised Mr. Modi’s campaign. “What does Obama get out of it? He needs a legacy like nobody’s business.”

“莫迪自己唱主角，可以全面恢复他的国际形象，”为莫迪的竞选顾问、专栏作者阿肖克·马利克(Ashok Malik)说。“而奥巴马会从中得到什么?他需要一个与众不同的遗产。”

Although most Indians have a positive view of the United States, according to a Pew Research Center poll taken last year, that enthusiasm has never penetrated into India’s government — in particular its defense establishment. The roots of this are deep: The United States has sold advanced weaponry to Pakistan and China, two neighbors which India has gone to war with, and, after India conducted nuclear tests, imposed sanctions on the Indian military.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)去年的调查显示，多数印度人对美国的印象是积极的，但尽管如此，这种好感没有渗透进印度政府，尤其是国防部门。这种现象有着很深的根源：美国向巴基斯坦和中国出售过高级武器，而印度曾经与这两个邻国发生过战争。此外，在印度开展核试验之后，美国对印度军方实施了制裁。

That this gap persists will be demonstrated on Monday, when Mr. Obama is to stand beside Mr. Modi at the Republic Day parade for an extensive display of Indian military hardware, much of it supplied by Russia. He will also be reminded of India’s pressing need for investment in infrastructure, an area where the United States cannot begin to compete with China and its vast, state-controlled reserves of foreign currency.

这种分歧一直存在，这一点在周一就将得到展示。届时，奥巴马将站在莫迪旁边，参加印度共和日的阅兵，活动中将大规模展示印度军方的装备，其中很大一部分是由俄罗斯提供的。奥巴马还将意识到印度对基础设施投资的迫切需求，在这一领域，美国已经无法与中国，以及中国由国家控制的外汇储备相竞争。

Indeed, the most important message from next week’s meeting could end up being a more subtle one: that the relationship is turning, as slowly as an oil tanker, toward a closer, more predictable long-term alignment.

的确，下周的会面最终传递的最重要讯息可能会更加微妙：两国关系正在发生转变，走向一种更亲密、更可以预期的长期联盟，尽管像油轮转弯一样缓慢。