美国年轻人毕业后去哪儿了?

Where Young College Graduates Are Choosing to Live

美国年轻人毕业后去哪儿了?

When young college graduates decide where to move, they are not just looking at the usual suspects, like New York, Washington and San Francisco. Other cities are increasing their share of these valuable residents at an even higher rate and have reached a high overall percentage, led by Denver, San Diego, Nashville, Salt Lake City and Portland, Ore., according to a report published Monday by City Observatory, a new think tank.

当年轻的高校毕业生们在决定搬往何处去时，他们考虑的并不仅仅是诸如纽约(New York)、华盛顿(Washington)和旧金山(San Francisco)这样的常见地点。根据新成立的智库City Observatory周一(指10月20日——译注)发布的一份报告，在其它城市里，这些宝贵的居民在当地人口中的比重甚至提升得更快，目前已达到一个很高的水平。比重最大的城市包括丹佛(Denver)、圣迭戈(San Diego)、纳什维尔(Nashville)、盐湖城(Salt Lake City)和俄勒冈州波特兰(Portland, Ore.)。

And as young people continue to spurn the suburbs for urban living, more of them are moving to the very heart of cities — even in economically troubled places like Buffalo and Cleveland. The number of college-educated people age 25 to 34 living within three miles of city centers has surged, up 37 percent since 2000, even as the total population of these neighborhoods has slightly shrunk.

此外，随着年轻人在不断摈弃郊区、追寻都市生活，他们当中有更多人搬到了都市的中心地带——即使在布法罗(Buffalo)、克利夫兰 (Cleveland)这样经济低迷的地区也是如此。即使这些居住区的总人口略有缩减，但就居住在距市中心3英里(约合4.8公里)范围内、且年龄在25 到34岁间的高学历人士而言，其人数已经比2000年时激增了37%。

Some cities are attracting young talent while their overall population falls, like Pittsburgh and New Orleans. And in a reversal, others that used to be magnets, like Atlanta and Charlotte, are struggling to attract them at the same rate.

有些城市的总人口数虽然有所下滑，但同时也在吸引年轻人才的进驻，比如匹兹堡(Pittsburgh)和新奥尔良(New Orleans)。与此相反，像亚特兰大(Atlanta)和夏洛特(Charlotte)这些一度吸引年轻人才的磁石，现在却已大不如前了。

Even as Americans over all have become less likely to move, young, college-educated people continue to move at a high clip — about a million cross state lines each year, and these so-called young and the restless don’t tend to settle down until their mid-30s. Where they end up provides a map of the cities that have a chance to be the economic powerhouses of the future.

即使总体而言，美国人已经变得不再频繁迁居，但是年轻高学历人群的搬家几率依然很高——每年大约有一百万人跨越州界，而且这些所谓的“年轻而骚动不安的一代”，不到35岁左右一般是不会定居下来的。而他们最终定居的地方就构成了一张地图，其中的城市有望成为未来的经济增长引擎。

“There is a very strong track record of places that attract talent becoming places of long-term success,” said Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard and author of “Triumph of the City.” “The most successful economic development policy is to attract and retain smart people and then get out of their way.”

“曾通过吸引人才取得了长期成功的地方，多得不胜枚举，”哈佛大学的经济学家、著有《城市的胜利》(Triumph of the City)的爱德华·格莱泽 (Edward Glaeser) 说，“最成功的经济发展政策，就是吸引和留住聪明人，并且不要挡住他们的路。”

The economic effects reach beyond the work the young people do, according to Enrico Moretti, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of “The New Geography of Jobs.” For every college graduate who takes a job in an innovation industry, he found, five additional jobs are eventually created in that city, such as for waiters, carpenters, doctors, architects and teachers.

加州大学伯克利分校(the University of California, Berkeley)的经济学家恩里克·莫雷蒂(Enrico Moretti)说，年轻人造成的经济效应不仅局限于他们所做的工作。莫雷蒂著有《就业机会的新布局》(The New Geography of Jobs)。他发现，每当有一名高校毕业生进入一个创新行业就职，这座城市最终就能多创造出五个诸如服务员、木工、医生、建筑师和教师这样的工作岗位。

“It’s a type of growth that feeds on itself — the more young workers you have, the more companies are interested in locating their operations in that area and the more young people are going to move there,” he said.

“这种增长是自我促生的——你吸引到的年轻人才越多，那么有意入驻那个地区的公司也就越多，这反过来也会吸引更多的年轻人搬过去。”他说。

About 25 percent more young college graduates live in major metropolitan areas today than in 2000, which is double the percentage increase in cities’ total population. All the 51 biggest metros except Detroit have gained young talent, either from net migration to the cities or from residents graduating from college, according to the report. It is based on data from the federal American Community Survey and written by Joe Cortright, an economist who runs City Observatory and Impresa, a consulting firm on regional economies.

与2000年相比，现在居住在主要大都市区(major metropolitan)的年轻高校毕业生增加了25%，比城市总人口的增长率高出一倍。报告显示，除底特律(Detroit)以外，所有大都市区的年轻人才都有所增加，其来源要么是城市净移民，要么是从高校毕业后留在本地的人群。该报告的数据源自经济学家乔·科特赖特(Joe Cortright)所撰写的《美国社区调查》(American Community Survey)。科特赖特为City Observatory和区域经济咨询公司Impresa的运营者。

Denver has become one of the most powerful magnets. Its population of the young and educated is up 47 percent since 2000, nearly double the percentage increase in the New York metro area. And 7.5 percent of Denver’s population is in this group, more than the national average of 5.2 percent and more than anywhere but Washington, the Bay Area and Boston.

丹佛已经成为最吸引年轻人的磁石之一。与2000年相比，其年轻高学历人口增长了47%，比纽约大都市区的增长率高出将近一倍。而且，丹佛有7.5%的人口属于这一群体，超出了5.2%的全国平均水平，仅次于华盛顿、湾区(Bay Area)和波士顿(Boston)。

Denver has many of the tangible things young people want, economists say, including mountains, sunshine and jobs in booming industries like tech. Perhaps more important, it also has the ones that give cities the perception of cultural cool, like microbreweries and bike-sharing and an acceptance of marijuana and same-sex marriage.

经济学家称，丹佛有许多实实在在的东西都是年轻人想要的，包括山地、阳光，以及科技类等朝阳产业里的就业岗位。或许更重要的是，丹佛具备许多引领文化潮流的特质，比如这里不仅有精酿厂、自行车共享计划，还可以接受大麻和同性婚姻。

“With lots of cultural things to do and getting away to the mountains, you can have the work-play balance more than any place I’ve ever lived,” said Colleen Douglass, 27, a video producer at Craftsy, a start-up with online classes for crafts. “There’s this really thriving start-up scene here, and the sense we can be in a place we love and work at a cool new company but not live in Silicon Valley.”

“住在这里可以参与很多文化活动，还能去山里躲避喧嚣。在我住过的其它地方，我都无法将工作和娱乐间的平衡把握得这么好。”27岁的科琳·道格拉斯 (Colleen Douglass)说。道格拉斯在一家创业公司Craftsy担任视频制作人，其业务是提供手工艺的网络课程。“这里的创业氛围真的很兴旺，而且我们可以在自己喜欢的地方居住，在一家很酷的新公司上班，而无需住在硅谷。”

Other cities that have had significant increases in a young and educated population and that now have more than their share include San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Nashville, Salt Lake City and Portland, Ore.

还有一些早已出现年轻高学历人口显著增长趋势的城市，如今其比重已达到了很高水平。这些城市包括：圣迭戈、巴尔的摩(Baltimore)、匹兹堡、印第安纳波利斯(Indianapolis)、纳什维尔、盐湖城和俄勒冈州波特兰。

At the other end of the spectrum are the cities where less than 4 percent of the population are young college graduates. Among those, Detroit lost about 10 percent of this group, while Providence gained just 6 percent and Memphis 10 percent.

再看看光谱的另一端。在有些城市，年轻高校毕业生在人口中的占比仅为不到4%。其中，底特律损失了大约10%的年轻高学历人口;而在普罗维登斯(Providence)和孟菲斯(Memphis)，年轻高学历人口的占比分别只有6%和10%。

Atlanta, one of the biggest net gainers of young graduates in the 1990s, has taken a sharp turn. Its young, educated population has increased just 2.8 percent since 2000, significantly less than its overall population. It is suffering the consequences of overenthusiasm for new houses and new jobs before the crash, economists say.

在20世纪90年代，亚特兰大曾经是年轻毕业生人口净增长率最高的城市之一，而如今，情况已急转直下。从2000年开始，当地年轻高学历人口只增长了2.8%，显著低于总人口的增幅。经济学家表示，由于经济崩溃前，亚特兰大过于热衷建造新房和新增工作岗位，目前它正在吞下苦果。

The population of young, educated people in Dallas, Charlotte and Raleigh is also growing more slowly than their populations as a whole.

在达拉斯(Dallas)、夏洛特和罗利(Raleigh)，年轻高学历人口的增长速度也低于总人口增速。

The effects of the migration of the young and the restless are most vividly seen in urban cores. In 1980, young adults were 10 percent more likely than other people to live in these areas, according to the report from City Observatory, which is sponsored by the Knight Foundation. In 2010, they were 51 percent more likely, and those with college degrees were 126 percent more likely. The trend extends to all the largest metropolitan areas except Detroit and Birmingham, Ala.

年轻而不安的一代所造成的移民效应，在都市的中心地带最为明显。根据奈特基金会(Knight Foundation)赞助City Observatory发布的报告，1980年，年轻成年人住在这些地带的几率比其他人群高出10%。2010年这一比率达到了51%，而具备高等教育学历的人群居住在这里的几率，比其他人群高出了126%。这一趋势几乎蔓延到了所有顶级规模的都市区，只有底特律和阿拉巴马州的伯明翰 (Birmingham,Ala)除外。

Of the metropolitan areas with the most populous city centers, Washington and Philadelphia showed the largest increases of young adults living there, at 75 and 78 percent. Other cities that have made big gains in that category are Baltimore, Los Angeles, San Diego, Dallas, Miami and St. Louis. Washington also had the largest share of young college graduates over all, at 8.1 percent.

在市中心人口最稠密的大都市区当中，华盛顿和费城(Philadelphia)的年轻成年人人口增幅最大，分别为75%和78%。其它增幅较高的城市包括巴尔的摩、洛杉矶(Los Angeles)、圣迭戈、达拉斯、迈阿密(Miami)和圣路易斯(St. Louis)。同时，华盛顿还拥有全国最高的年轻高校毕业生人口占比，达到8.1%。