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由于2020年,“末日时钟”现在仍然是有史以来最接近午夜的时刻

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2021年01月31日

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Thanks To 2020, Doomsday Clock Remains Closest To Midnight It’s Ever Been

由于2020年,“末日时钟”现在仍然是有史以来最接近午夜的时刻

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has announced that the Doomsday Clock shall remain unchanged at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has been to midnight, or "doomsday," since its creation in 1947. This means humanity is still closer to a potential apocalypse than ever.

《原子科学家公报》宣布,世界末日钟将保持在离午夜100秒不变,这是自1947年发明以来最接近午夜或“世界末日”的时刻。这意味着人类比以往任何时候都更接近潜在的末日。

In 2020, the clock was moved forward to just 100 seconds to midnight based on continued nuclear weapons, the limited political response to climate change, and the proliferation of cyber-based disinformation. While there have been some optimistic developments in these fields, such as the decline in demand for fossil fuels, the past year has also seen the COVID-19 pandemic, a global catastrophe that highlighted many vulnerabilities in the way we live on this planet. As such, the clock remains unchanged.

2020年,由于核武器仍在继续,政治对气候变化的反应有限,以及基于网络的虚假信息的扩散,时钟被提前到了仅剩100秒的午夜。虽然在这些领域出现了一些乐观的发展,如化石燃料需求的下降,但过去一年也出现了COVID-19大流行,这是一场全球灾难,凸显了我们在这个星球上生活方式的许多脆弱性。因此,时钟保持不变。

“The hands of the Doomsday Clock remain at 100 seconds to midnight, as close to midnight as ever," Dr Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said in a statement. "The lethal and fear-inspiring COVID-19 pandemic serves as a historic ‘wake-up call,’ a vivid illustration that national governments and international organizations are unprepared to manage the truly civilization-ending threats of nuclear weapons and climate change.”

《原子科学家公报》主席兼首席执行官雷切尔·布朗森博士在一份声明中表示:“末日钟的指针保持在离午夜100秒的位置,一如既往地接近午夜。”“致命性和令人恐惧的COVID-19大流行是一个历史性的‘警钟’,生动地说明各国政府和国际组织没有准备好应对核武器和气候变化带来的真正终结文明的威胁。”

Tom Hale

The Doomsday Clock is a metaphoric countdown towards the likelihood of a human-driven global catastrophe. Midnight represents the point at which a hypothetical apocalypse might happen. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a potentially worldwide catastrophe.

世界末日时钟是一种隐喻,预示着人类驱动的全球灾难的可能性。午夜代表着一个假设的末日可能发生的时刻。时钟离午夜越近,人类就越接近一场潜在的全球性灾难。

The project was started in 1947 by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a group of atomic scientists who were becoming increasingly concerned with the proliferation of atomic bombs and the intense geopolitical standoff between the US and the USSR. Many of the scientists were once part of the Manhattan Project, the top-secret US government mission to develop the first atomic bomb in the 1940s, but had become starkly aware of the monster they had created.

该项目于1947年由《原子科学家公报》发起。当时,一群原子科学家越来越关注原子弹的扩散以及美苏之间紧张的地缘政治对峙。许多科学家都曾参与过曼哈顿计划,这是美国政府在20世纪40年代开发第一颗原子弹的绝密任务,但他们对自己制造的这个怪物却了然于心。

At the beginning of the Cold War in 1947, the Doomsday Clock was set to 7 minutes to midnight and was largely concerned with the quarrels of nuclear-armed superpowers. As the tensions of the Cold War continued to wax and wane, the clock hand moved closer and further from the midnight mark. The furthest the clock has ever been was in 1991 — set to 11:43 pm — when the Cold War was drawing to a close following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR, and the signing of the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

1947年冷战开始时,世界末日时钟被设定为距离午夜7分钟,主要与拥有核武器的超级大国之间的争吵有关。随着冷战的紧张局势不断地起起落落,时钟的指针离午夜的标记越来越近。历史上时间最长的一次是1991年,被设定在晚上11点43分。随着1989年柏林墙倒塌、苏联解体以及第一份削减战略武器条约的签署,冷战即将结束。

Since then, however, the minute clock has been slowly ticking towards midnight. In recent years, the movement of the Doomsday Clock has primarily been dictated by three factors: the continued stockpiling of nuclear weapons, lack of action on climate change, and so-called “disruptive technologies,” which includes the growing spread of misinformation, cyberwarfare, and artificial intelligence.

然而,从那时起,分钟就慢慢地走向午夜。近年来,世界末日的时钟主要由三个因素决定:持续的核武器储备、对气候变化缺乏行动以及所谓的“破坏性技术”,其中包括错误信息、网络战和人工智能的不断传播。

It’s easy to think that the idea of atomic war isn’t a concern in the 21st-century, but the threat is still hanging over the fate of our entire planet. Despite progress in reducing Cold War nuclear arsenals, the world’s combined inventory of nuclear weapons was approximately 13,410 warheads in early-2020, around the same levels seen during the 1950s. Up to 1,800 warheads are also primed on high alert and ready for use at very short notice.

人们很容易认为,在21世纪,核战争的想法不值得关注,但这一威胁仍然笼罩着我们整个星球的命运。尽管在减少冷战时期的核武库方面取得了进展,但到2020年初,全球的核武器总存量约为13410枚弹头,与上世纪50年代的水平相当。多达1800枚弹头也处于高度戒备状态,随时可以在很短的时间内使用。

However, the "mishandling" of the COVID-19 pandemic by governments, institutions, and a "misled public" shows that humanity remains unprepared to handle the greater threats of both nuclear war and climate change, the Bulletin said. In a separate statement, it accused governments of "abdicating responsibility" and ignoring scientific advice on one of the greatest public health crises the world has seen, but conceded that the election of a US president who supports international cooperation and science-based policy is a positive step forward.

然而,政府、机构和“被误导的公众”对COVID-19大流行的“错误处理”表明,人类仍然没有准备好应对核战争和气候变化等更大的威胁。在另一份声明中,它指责各国政府“放弃责任”,忽视对世界上最严重的公共卫生危机之一的科学建议,但承认美国总统的当选支持国际合作和基于科学的政策是向前迈出的积极一步。

“Before COVID-19... the idea of a devastating pandemic was relegated to science fiction and the historical references. I think we all know now that that is not the case," Dr Asha George, Science and Security Board member of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said in the online announcement. "It never was."

“COVID-19以前……毁灭性的大流行病的概念被归入科幻小说和历史参考。我想我们现在都知道事实并非如此,”《原子科学家公报》科学与安全委员会成员阿莎·乔治博士在网上声明中说。“从来没有。”


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