雨、浪和风:如何理解飓风风险

雨、浪和风:如何理解飓风风险

Millions of Americans live in the potential path of a hurricane.

数百万美国人生活在飓风可能经过的地方。

The good news is that hurricane and cyclone forecasts have gotten significantly more accurate in recent decades. The bad news is that climate change and population growth combine to make hurricanes more dangerous to more people.

好消息是，近几十年来，飓风和气旋预报的准确性大大提高了。坏消息是，气候变化和人口增长相结合，使飓风对更多的人更加危险。

And research suggests that people are confused by common graphics and warnings about where hurricanes are headed and how they'll affect communities in their path.

研究表明，人们对常见的关于飓风行进方向以及它们将如何影响沿途社区的图像和警告感到困惑。

Here are some basic principles you can use to avoid confusion when a hurricane is headed your way.

这里有一些基本原则，当飓风向你袭来时，你可以使用它们来避免困惑。

Figuring out whether you and your family are in the potential path of a hurricane is the first step. When a storm forms, the National Hurricane Center publishes a prediction map that shows where the hurricane is headed.

第一步是弄清楚你和你的家人是否处于飓风的潜在路径上。当风暴形成时，国家飓风中心发布一份预测地图，显示飓风的走向。

That map sometimes has a central line that shows the most likely path of the hurricane. Imagine that the line starts at the current location of the storm — somewhere over the water — and extends toward the land, showing you where the storm is likely to be in the coming hours and days.

地图上有时会有一条中心线，显示出飓风最可能的路径。想象一下，这条线从风暴的当前位置开始——在水面上的某个地方——向陆地延伸，显示出未来几个小时或几天风暴可能在哪里。

But each location along the storm's projected path is less and less certain, because it's farther in the future. The storm could move slightly left or slightly right at any moment, and that changes where it ultimately makes landfall.

但是风暴预计路径上的每个位置都越来越不确定，因为它在更远的未来。风暴随时可能轻微向左或向右移动，这就改变了它最终登陆的地点。

The map is usually published along with information about the storm's wind category. The categories range from tropical storms with sustained wind below 74 miles an hour up to Category 5 storms with sustained winds above 157 miles per hour.

该地图通常与风暴的类别信息一起发布。这些类别包括持续风速在每小时74英里以下的热带风暴，以及持续风速在每小时157英里以上的5级风暴。

But, although high winds can destroy buildings, water is the most deadly part of a hurricane. And a storm's category doesn't tell you anything about the flooding it will cause.

但是，尽管强风可以摧毁建筑物，但水是飓风中最致命的部分。而风暴的类别并不能告诉你它将引发的洪水。

"My number one message to people is to focus less on wind and more on water," says Jamie Rhome, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. "The map tells you very little about storm surge or rain, which are consistently the deadliest effects of hurricanes."

国家飓风中心的高级预报员杰米·罗姆说:“我给人们的首要信息是少关注风多关注水。”“地图告诉你的关于风暴潮或降雨的信息非常少，而这一直是飓风造成的最致命的影响。”

Storm surge is water pushed up onto coastal land by the hurricane. The National Hurricane Center publishes storm surge forecast maps that show which areas are in danger, and how much water could arrive with the storm.

风暴潮是飓风把海水推到海岸的陆地上。国家飓风中心发布了风暴潮预测地图，显示哪些地区处于危险之中，以及有多少水会随着风暴到达。

Unfortunately, storm surge and rain maps do not include local information about where to go and how to prepare. That's because local emergency managers are in charge of deciding when to recommend evacuations, where to set up shelters and how to manage evacuation routes.

不幸的是，风暴潮和降雨地图不包括当地的信息，关于去哪里和如何准备。这是因为当地的应急管理人员负责决定何时建议疏散，在哪里设立避难所，以及如何管理疏散路线。

When hurricane season begins in early summer, check with your county or city emergency department to find out whether you're in an evacuation zone, and what your options are if you decide to leave your home.

当飓风季节在初夏开始时，向你所在的县或市应急部门查询你是否处于疏散区，以及如果你决定离开你的家，你有什么选择。

"Hurricane risks are different for different people," explains Barbara Millet, the director of the University of Miami's User Experience Lab. It's currently very difficult for citizens to get all the information they need when a hurricane is headed their way.

迈阿密大学用户体验实验室的主任芭芭拉·米勒解释说:“不同的人面临的飓风风险是不同的。”目前，当飓风向他们袭来时，市民很难获得他们需要的所有信息。