如何减少未来疾病大流行的风险

如何减少未来疾病大流行的风险

There has been plenty of ink spilled about how life will look after the COVID-19 pandemic, from open-air schools to scattered desks in offices – but we don't hear much beyond that. Sure, we are still in the thick of it, but really there's no time like the present to start thinking about how to prevent the next outbreak of zoonotic disease. (Zoonotic diseases are those that "jump" from animals to humans, like the new coronavirus, as well as SARS, ebola, and MERS.)

从露天的学校到办公室里分散的办公桌，关于如何应对COVID-19大流行的讨论已经有了很多笔墨，但除此之外，我们没有听到太多。当然，我们还处在疫情的最严重阶段，但现在是时候开始考虑如何防止下一次人畜共患疾病的爆发了。(人畜共患疾病是指那些从动物“跳跃”到人类的疾病，如新型冠状病毒，以及SARS、埃博拉和中东呼吸综合征。)

Previously, Treehugger reported on the Wildlife Conservation Society's strategy to reduce the risk of future pandemics in three steps; stop wildlife trade, stop wildlife consumption, and stop destroying nature.

此前，环保人士Treehugger报道了野生动物保护协会的策略，以三步走的方式降低未来流行病的风险;停止野生动物贸易，停止野生动物消费，停止破坏自然。

Deforestation in the Amazon. luoman / Getty Images

Now researchers from University College London (UCL) have dug deeper and conclude that:

现在，来自伦敦大学学院(UCL)的研究人员进行了更深入的研究，并得出结论:

We may need to alter how we use land across the world to reduce the risk of future spillovers of infectious diseases.

我们可能需要改变世界各地的土地利用方式，以减少未来传染病蔓延的风险。

"Global changes in land use are disrupting the balance of wild animal communities in our environment, and species that carry diseases known to infect humans appear to be benefiting."

“全球土地利用的变化正在破坏我们环境中野生动物群落的平衡，而那些携带已知会感染人类疾病的物种似乎从中受益。”

The research, which has been published in the journal Nature, may provide insight into future spillovers of diseases originating in animals.

这项发表在《自然》杂志上的研究，可能会对源自动物的疾病的未来溢出效应提供见解。

The team, led by the UCL Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, looked at data from 6,801 ecological communities from six continents, and found that animals that carry human-disease-causing microorganisms were more common in landscapes intensively used by people, explains UCL. All told, they examined evidence that included around 7,000 species, 376 of which are known to carry human-shared pathogens.

伦敦大学学院解释说，这个由伦敦大学学院生物多样性和环境研究中心领导的团队观察了来自六大洲的6801个生态群落的数据，发现携带人类致病微生物的动物在人类密集使用的景观中更为常见。总的来说，他们检查了大约7000个物种的证据，其中376个已知携带人类共有的病原体。

As examples of land-use change, the authors cite the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems.

作为土地使用变化的例子，作者列举了自然栖息地向农业或城市生态系统的转变。

Lead author Rory Gibb says, "The way humans change landscapes across the world, from natural forest to farmland for example, has consistent impacts on many wild animal species, causing some to decline while some others persist or increase." He adds:

该研究的第一作者Rory Gibb说:“人类改变世界各地景观的方式，例如从天然林到农田，对许多野生动物物种产生了持续的影响，导致一些物种减少，而另一些则持续或增加。”他补充说:

Our findings show that the animals that remain in more human-dominated environments are those that are more likely to carry infectious diseases that can make people sick.

我们的研究结果表明，生活在人类主导环境中的动物更容易携带传染病，从而使人类患病。

"Other studies have found that outbreaks of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases appear to be increasingly common," says author Doctor David Redding. "Our findings may help to explain that pattern, by clarifying the underlying ecological change processes that are interacting to drive infection risks."

“其他研究发现，新出现的人畜共患传染病的爆发似乎越来越常见，”作者大卫·雷丁博士说。“我们的发现可能有助于解释这种模式，通过阐明潜在的生态变化过程，说明相互作用导致感染风险。”

According to research by Navin Ramankutty, an agricultural geographer at the University of British Columbia (and not involved in the UCL study), only 23% of Earth's land remains wild. Farmland and human settlement are taking over, pushing out native species and creating dangerous opportunities for pathogens to find their way into human populations.

根据英属哥伦比亚大学的农业地理学家Navin Ramankutty(没有参与伦敦大学学院的研究)的研究，地球上只有23%的土地仍然是野生的。农田和人类定居点正在占据上风，赶走了本土物种，并为病原体进入人类创造了危险的机会。

The UCL study concludes that "global changes in the mode and the intensity of land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs of zoonotic disease."

伦敦大学学院的研究得出的结论是:“土地利用方式和强度的全球变化，正在扩大人畜共患传染病的宿主、人类、牲畜和野生动物之间的危险界面。”

"Our findings provide a context for thinking about how to manage land use changes more sustainably in ways that take into account potential risks not only to biodiversity," says Redding, "but also to human health."

“我们的发现为思考如何以更可持续的方式管理土地利用变化提供了一个背景，这种方式不仅考虑了对生物多样性的潜在风险，也考虑了对人类健康的潜在风险，”Redding说。