如果不采取有效措施，到2040年海洋塑料污染将增加两倍

如果不采取有效措施，到2040年海洋塑料污染将增加两倍

Plastic pollution is a big problem. But just how big has remained something of a mystery until recently, when a detailed study was published that delved into the actual numbers driving the crisis. This important study was the result of two years of research and analysis by Pew Charitable Trusts and environmental think tank SYSTEMIQ, Ltd. that, together, wanted to quantify the problem that we face in order to come up with more effective solutions for it. It was published both in the form of a peer-reviewed study in Science journal and as a report.

塑料污染是个大问题。但究竟有多大仍然是一个谜，直到最近，一项深入研究导致危机的实际数字的详细研究才得以发表。这项重要的研究是皮尤慈善信托基金和环境智库SYSTEMIQ, Ltd.两年研究和分析的结果，他们希望量化我们所面临的问题，从而提出更有效的解决方案。这项研究以同行评议的形式发表在《科学》杂志上，也以报告的形式发表。

What the study revealed is that ocean plastic pollution will triple by 2040 if nothing is done to stop it. That translates to a horrifying 110 pounds (50 kilograms) of plastic per 3.2 feet (1 meter) of shoreline. The usual number cited for annual ocean plastic pollution is 8 million metric tons (one metric ton is 2204.6 pounds), but the study says that's really closer to 11 metric tons, and it could easily reach 29 metric tons– and this doesn't even include the enormous quantities of plastic that are discarded on land every year. Furthermore, even if governments and businesses followed through with all their promises to curb plastic waste, the global flow of ocean plastic would shrink by a mere 7% by 2040, which is far from adequate.

这项研究显示，如果不采取任何措施阻止，到2040年海洋塑料污染将增加两倍。也就是说，每3.2英尺(1米)的海岸线上就有110磅(50公斤)的塑料。年度海洋塑料污染通常被引用的数量是800万吨(一吨2204.6磅),但这项研究说,非常接近11吨,而且它很容易达到29吨——这还不包括每年废弃的土地上大量的塑料。此外，即使各国政府和企业兑现了所有遏制塑料垃圾的承诺，到2040年全球海洋塑料流量仅会减少7%，这远远不够。

A little boy plays on a plastic-covered beach in Jakarta, Indonesia.Ed Wray / Getty Images

The researchers created and analyzed five scenarios in which plastic waste is dealt with differently between now and 2040. These included "Business As Usual" (providing a baseline to which alternative models can be compared), "Collect and Dispose" (improving collection and disposal infrastructure), "Recycling" (improving and expanding recycling capabilities), "Reduce and Substitute" (an upstream solution that replaces plastic with other greener materials), and "System Change" (a complete overhaul that includes reducing demand for plastic, replacing with better materials, and improving recycling rates).

研究人员创建并分析了从现在到2040年间塑料垃圾处理的五种不同方案。包括“一切照旧”(提供一个基线的替代模型可以比较),“收集和处理”(提高收集和处理设施),“回收”(改善和扩大回收能力),“减少和替代”(一个上游解决方案取代塑料与其他环保材料),和“系统变化”(一个完整的改革,包括减少对塑料的需求,更换更好的材料,和提高回收率)。

What the researchers found was that, if a total System Change did occur – and governments and businesses were brave enough to push for a remake of the global plastics industry, using every single bit of technology that is currently at their disposal – plastic waste could be reduced by 80% by 2040. But if this total overhaul were delayed by just five years, an additional 500 million metric tons of mismanaged plastic waste would enter the environment in the meantime.

研究人员发现，如果整个系统确实发生了变化，而且政府和企业都有足够的勇气推动全球塑料工业的重建，利用现有的每一项技术，到2040年塑料垃圾将减少80%。但如果这一全面改革推迟5年，那么，另外5亿吨管理不善的塑料垃圾也将进入环境。

Recycling is a crucial part of the solution, but it must be greatly improved from its current underdeveloped state. Collection rates must go up, considering that two billion people currently lack access to waste collection services and that number will increase to four billion by 2040, but scaling up is a "monumental task。"

回收是解决问题的一个关键部分，但它必须从目前的不发达状态大大改善。考虑到目前有20亿人缺乏垃圾收集服务，而到2040年这一数字将增至40亿，垃圾收集率必须提高，但扩大收集率是一项“巨大的任务”。

A worker cleans plastic trash left behind in a public square in Wales, June 2020. Matthew Horwood / Getty Images

As National Geographic explained, this is an "inconceivable prospect, but was included in the report to convey the enormity of the problems involved in containing waste on a global scale."

正如《国家地理》解释的那样，这是一个“难以想象的前景，但在报告中提到这一点是为了表达在全球范围内处理垃圾所涉及的巨大问题。”