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新的研究表明,杂货店和大学应该首先重新开放

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2020年06月17日

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Grocery stores and universities should reopen first, new research suggests

新的研究表明,杂货店和大学应该首先重新开放

New research suggests grocery stores, banks, dentists, universities and big box stores like Walmart should reopen earlier and face fewer restrictions as communities open up after pandemic lockdowns.

新的研究表明,杂货店、银行、牙医、大学和像沃尔玛这样的大卖场应该更早开业,随着社区在大范围的封锁后重新开放,它们所面临的限制也应该减少。

The study, released on Tuesday, also determined that cafes, gyms, sporting goods stores, bookstores, tobacco and liquor stores should be kept closed until later.

这项于周二发布的研究还规定,咖啡馆、健身房、体育用品商店、书店、烟酒商店应该关门到晚些时候。

新的研究表明,杂货店和大学应该首先重新开放

The researchers who took part in a Massachusetts Institute of Technology-led initiative did a cost benefit analysis of 26 different location types to determine what the tradeoff would be between someone's relative risk of getting infected during a visit and the importance of that establishment in that person's life and to the economy.

参与麻省理工学院领导的一项倡议的研究人员对26种不同的地点类型进行了成本效益分析,以权衡了一个人在访问期间(进入不同地点期间)受到感染的相对风险与该地点在该人生活和经济中的重要性。

They also used anonymous geolocation data from 47 million mobile phones to track where people went in the United States during February and March.

他们还使用来自4700万部手机的匿名地理定位数据来追踪人们在2月和3月在美国的去向。

How risky a location could be was based in part on how much social contact someone would have in that location, how many hours they'd spend there, how crowded it would be, how many visits they'd make.

一个地点的风险有多大,部分取决于一个人在这个地点会有多少社交联系,在那里会呆多少小时,会有多拥挤,会有多少次访问。

Researchers also factored in visits by people 65 years and older and the distance traveled to the location. They measured economic benefits using US Census statistics and nationally representative consumer survey data.

研究人员还考虑了65岁以上的人的访问以及到那里的距离。他们使用美国人口普查数据和全国有代表性的消费者调查数据来衡量经济效益。

They found some surprises.

他们发现了一些惊喜。

Some categories were easy -- grocery stores have an obvious benefit and museums and movie theaters were of relatively low importance.

有些分类很简单,杂货店有明显的好处,博物馆和电影院相对不重要。

"Hardware stores are the location which has seen the largest increase in visits, as individuals scrounge for personal protective equipment and other home supplies," the researchers noted.

研究人员指出:“五金店是购物人数增加最多的地方,因为人们在五金店寻找个人防护装备和其他家居用品。”

"We find that banks, general merchandise stores (e.g. Walmart), dentists, grocery stores, and colleges and universities should face relatively loose restrictions. Gyms, sporting goods stores, liquor and tobacco stores, bookstores, and cafes should face relatively tight restrictions," they concluded.

“我们发现,银行、百货商店(如沃尔玛)、牙医、杂货店和大学应该面临相对宽松的限制。健身房、体育用品商店、烟酒商店、书店和咖啡馆应该面临相对严格的限制。”他们总结道。

新的研究表明,杂货店和大学应该首先重新开放

The authors said there is a limitation to their analysis.

作者表示,他们的分析存在局限性。

Many locations can make adjustments to limit contact. Most retailers can offer curbside pickup so people don't have to go in the stores. For gyms, on the other hand, it's harder since they emphasize physical contact and are locations where mask use is "unpleasant," the researchers wrote.

许多位置可以调整以限制接触。大多数零售商可以提供路边取货服务,这样人们就不用去商店了。另一方面,对于健身房来说,就更难了,因为他们强调身体接触,而且是使用口罩“令人不愉快”的地方,研究人员写道。

Since many states have had to make reopening and closing decisions in the dark, the researchers said they hope their work will help policymakers figure out how to reopen the economy safely this time.

由于许多州不得不在这个黑暗时刻做出重新开放和关闭的决定,研究人员说,他们希望他们的工作将帮助决策者找出这次如何安全地重新开放经济。


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