研究发现，引入病假工资后，传染性疾病的传播大幅下降

研究发现，引入病假工资后，传染性疾病的传播大幅下降

It may seem obvious, but we now have statistical evidence to prove that giving employees the right to paid sick leave helps to curb the spread of infectious diseases by encouraging people to stay home when they are ill. According to a study in the Journal of Public Economics, US cities that introduce sick pay mandates can expect to see a 6 to 7 percent reduction in flu cases, which equates to around 3,000 fewer illnesses per million people per year.

这似乎是显而易见的，但我们现在有统计证据证明，给予员工带薪病假的权利有助于遏制传染病的传播，因为它鼓励人们生病时呆在家里。根据《公共经济学杂志》的一项研究，实行病假工资制度的美国城市有望将流感病例减少6%至7%，相当于每百万人每年减少约3000例疾病。

According to the study authors, the fact that roughly half of the US workforce has no access to paid sick leave encourages “contagious presenteeism”, whereby employees continue to work when they are ill as they simply can’t afford to take time off.

研究报告的作者表示，美国约有一半的劳动力无法获得带薪病假，这一事实鼓励了“传染性出勤主义”，即员工在生病时继续工作，因为他们根本负担不起请假的费用。

Ben Taub

This applies to more than 70 percent of workers whose wages are in the lowest 10 percent, as well as one-third of service sector workers. Since many of these employees are likely to have regular contact with the general public, continuing to work while sick is likely to contribute to the spread of contagious illnesses.

这适用于70%以上工资最低的10%的工人，以及三分之一的服务业工人。由于这些雇员中有许多人可能会定期与公众接触，所以在生病期间继续工作很可能会导致传染性疾病的传播。

Between 2007 and 2015, eight US cities mandated paid sick leave. San Francisco was the first to do so, followed by Washington DC, Seattle, Portland, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Oakland.

从2007年到2015年，美国有8个城市规定了带薪病假。旧金山是第一个这样做的城市，其次是华盛顿特区、西雅图、波特兰、纽约市、纽瓦克、费城和奥克兰。

By analyzing the number of Google searches regarding flu in these cities, the study authors were able to estimate the number actual flu cases per year in each location. After crunching the numbers, they found that flu rates dropped by 6 to 7 percent in each city immediately after paid sick leave was introduced. This figure represents an average effect, and takes into account both summer and winter, when flu rates differ drastically. Yet a more detailed look at the stats indicates that the actual decrease in cases during the flu season can be as high as 40 percent.

通过分析这些城市中关于流感的谷歌搜索的数量，研究作者能够估计每个地方每年实际流感病例的数量。在分析了这些数据后，他们发现，在带薪病假引入后，每个城市的流感发病率立即下降了6 - 7%。这个数字代表了一个平均效应，并考虑了夏季和冬季，当流感发病率急剧不同。然而，更详细的统计数据显示，在流感季节，实际病例减少可能高达40%。

In a second unpublished paper, the same authors used administrative sources to determine the number of doctor-diagnosed flu cases in each US state between 2010 and 2018. During this period, numerous states introduced sick-pay mandates, beginning with Connecticut in 2011. Among the others to do so were California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Arizona, Vermont, and Washington.

在第二篇未发表的论文中，作者利用行政资源确定了2010年至2018年美国各州医生诊断的流感病例数量。在此期间，从2011年康涅狄格州开始，许多州引入了病假工资规定。加州、马萨诸塞州、俄勒冈州、亚利桑那州、佛蒙特州和华盛顿州等地也采取了类似措施。

Each of these states saw an 11 percent decrease in flu rates in the first year after introducing paid sick leave, compared to states that did not offer this benefit to employees.

与没有为员工提供带薪病假的州相比，这些州在引入带薪病假后的第一年流感发病率都下降了11%。

Given that the world is currently on tenterhooks over the increasing scale of the Coronavirus outbreak, many academics and other commentators are pointing out that offering paid sick leave to all workers can only help in the fight to stave off a major pandemic. With the US now one of the only developed nations not to provide this basic right, the coming weeks and months could well highlight the need for a re-think on this policy.

鉴于目前全球对冠状病毒爆发规模的不断扩大感到紧张不安，许多学者和其他评论人士指出，向所有员工提供带薪病假，只能有助于避免一场大流行。由于美国现在是发达国家中唯一没有提供这一基本权利的国家之一，未来几周和几个月很可能会突显出重新考虑这一政策的必要性。