到本世纪末，世界上一半的沙滩可能会消失

到本世纪末，世界上一半的沙滩可能会消失

If you were hoping to head to the beach until the climate catastrophe blows over, think again. Around half of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone by the end of this century if climate change is left unchecked, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

如果你希望在气候灾难过去之前去海滩，再想想吧。《自然气候变化》杂志上发表的一项研究表明，如果不控制气候变化，到本世纪末，世界上大约一半的沙滩将会消失。

The new research used 35 years of satellite coastal observations, paired with over 80 years of climate and sea-level rise projections, to predict how our planet’s coastlines fare over the next 80 years.

这项新的研究使用了35年的沿海卫星观测数据，结合80多年的气候和海平面上升预测，来预测我们星球的海岸线在未来80年的变化。

Their models suggest that up to 50 percent of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut and continue to creep upwards. Even within 30 years, by the year 2050, around 14 percent of the world’s sandy beaches could face severe degradation.

他们的模型表明，如果不减少温室气体排放并继续缓慢上升，世界上多达50%的沙滩可能会消失。即使在30年内，到2050年，世界上大约14%的沙滩将面临严重的退化。

Tom Hale

However, there is a slither of hope: a “moderate emission mitigation policy,” whereby greenhouse gas emissions are slashed and peak by 2040, would prevent 40 percent of the projected erosion.

然而，还有一线希望:“适度减排政策”，即到2040年削减温室气体排放并达到峰值，预计可以防止40%的侵蚀。

The severity of “beach extinction” will be experienced differently across the world. For example, the risk of erosion is particularly high in certain countries under both climate scenarios, including the Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, where over 60 percent of sandy coastlines are likely to be lost. Other countries that are expected to bear some of the most profound changes include Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, China, the US, Russia, and Argentina.

世界各地对“海滩灭绝”的严重程度将有不同的感受。例如，在包括冈比亚和几内亚比绍在内的两种气候情况下，某些国家的水土流失风险特别高，在这些国家，60%以上的沙质海岸线可能会消失。预计澳大利亚、加拿大、智利、墨西哥、中国、美国、俄罗斯和阿根廷等国也将面临一些影响最为深远的变化。

“While some parts of sandy coastlines will grow, many countries will have 80 percent of their sandy coastlines affected by erosion. The latter countries where sandy beaches are important tourist attractions will face the major negative socio-economic impacts. Countries like Australia and the USA have a large proportion of sandy beaches and will see large changes,” explained Dr Suzana Ilic, senior lecturer at the Lancaster Environment Centre of Lancaster University, who wasn’t directly involved with the new study.

“虽然部分沙滩海岸线将会增长，但许多国家80%的沙滩海岸线将会受到侵蚀。后一种国家的沙滩是重要的旅游景点，将面临主要的消极社会经济影响。兰开斯特大学兰开斯特环境中心的高级讲师Suzana Ilic博士解释说，她没有直接参与这项新研究。

Indeed, many of these changes are already being felt. Previous research showed that nearly a quarter of sandy beaches worldwide are currently eroding at a rate of over 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) per year, accounting for over 28,000 square kilometers (10,800 square miles) of beach that have already been lost to the sea.

事实上，许多变化已经被感觉到。之前的研究表明，目前全世界近四分之一的沙滩正以每年0.5米(1.6英尺)的速度遭受侵蚀，已经被海水淹没的海滩面积超过2.8万平方公里(1.08万平方英里)。

Sandy beaches line around a third of the world’s coastlines. They are especially vulnerable to changes in sea level as they will degrade within years or decades of sea-level rise, compared to cliffs or rocky coastlines that can take decades or centuries to respond.

世界三分之一的海岸线上都是沙滩。它们尤其容易受到海平面变化的影响，因为与可能需要几十年或几百年才能作出反应的悬崖或多岩石的海岸线相比，它们将在海平面上升的几年内或几十年内退化。

Many sandy beaches are also near to highly populated areas – some 10 percent of the world’s population lives in coastal areas – and serve as important hubs for recreation, tourism, and industry. This is not even considering their invaluable role as a habitat for wildlife. On top of that, beaches also provide natural barriers against marine storms and cyclones.

许多沙滩也靠近人口密集的地区——大约10%的世界人口居住在沿海地区——是娱乐、旅游和工业的重要枢纽。这甚至没有考虑到它们作为野生动物栖息地的宝贵作用。除此之外，海滩还提供了天然屏障，抵御海洋风暴和气旋。

So if these gorgeous ecosystems start to crumble, it will be a lot more severe than a few homeless crabs and a ruined holiday.

因此，如果这些美丽的生态系统开始崩溃，它将比几只无家可归的螃蟹和一个被毁的假期严重得多。