科学家警告称，全球肉类消费将达到“峰值”

科学家警告称，全球肉类消费将达到“峰值”

When it comes to meat, the world's plate is more than half full. In fact, scientists say it's fast approaching a tipping point.

说到肉，全世界的盘子里有一半多都是肉。事实上，科学家说它正迅速接近一个临界点。

In a letter published in the The Lancet Planetary Health Journal, 50 international scientists and environmental experts warn that the world will reach "peak meat" by 2030.

50位国际科学家和环境专家在《柳叶刀》杂志上发表的一封信中警告说，到2030年，全球肉类消费将达到“峰值”。

All but the poorest countries need to dramatically restructure their agricultural industries, the scientists note. (Photo: Aumsama/Shutterstock)

If the livestock industry doesn't stop growing by then, we literally risk eating ourselves out of house and home.

如果畜牧业到那时还没有停止增长，我们将面临在户外和家中吞食自己的风险。

The scientists note that the world needs to keep global temperatures within a "safe" limit of between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To get there, an estimated 720 billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere.

科学家们指出，世界需要将全球温度保持在“安全”范围内，即比工业化前的水平高出1.5至2摄氏度。要达到这个目标，估计需要从大气中清除7200亿吨二氧化碳。

And livestock production — a major source of emissions — will have to adopt a crash diet.

而作为主要排放来源的畜牧业，将不得不采取速成饮食。

"If the livestock sector were to continue with business as usual, this sector alone would account for 49 percent of the emissions budget for 1·5°C by 2030, requiring other sectors to reduce emissions beyond a realistic or planned level."

“如果畜牧业一如既往地发展下去，到2030年，仅畜牧业就将占1·5°C排放预算的49%，这就要求其他行业削减超出实际或计划水平的排放。”

While it's long been known that meat consumption isn't sustainable — at least not when there are 7 billion mouths to feed on this planet — the world's appetite continues to grow. And meat's environmental footprint is growing along with it.

虽然人们早就知道肉类消费是不可持续的——至少在地球上有70亿张嘴要吃的时候是这样——但世界的胃口还在继续增长。肉类的环境足迹也随之增长。

That means increasing amounts of land are being taken up by livestock, removing natural carbon sinks like forests and vegetation along the way. Those carbon sinks play a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

这意味着越来越多的土地被牲畜占用，自然碳汇也随之消失，比如沿途的森林和植被。这些碳汇在吸收大气中的二氧化碳方面起着至关重要的作用。

In the letter, scientists say all but the poorest counties need to curb their meat enthusiasm, and set a time frame to halt the industry's growth. Specifically, governments need to restructure their meat industries, zeroing in on the biggest producers of emissions and occupiers of land.

在信中，科学家们表示，除了最贫困的县外，其他所有县都需要抑制对肉类的热情，并设定一个时间框架来阻止该行业的增长。具体来说，政府需要重组他们的肉类产业，瞄准最大的排放者和土地占用者。

Those producers would need hard targets in place for reducing growth. Change doesn't have to be so painful for those producers, but only if they begin diversifying their food production.

这些生产商需要制定降低增长的硬性目标。对这些生产商来说，改变不一定是那么痛苦，但前提是他们开始实现食品生产的多样化。

Livestock, they note, could be gradually replaced with "foods that simultaneously minimise environmental burdens and maximise public health benefits."

他们指出，家畜可以逐渐被“同时最小化环境负担和最大化公共健康效益的食物”所取代。

In other words, crops like pulses, grains, fruits and vegetables. Even nuts, which require intensive amounts of water to grow, take less of a toll on the planet than red meat production.

换句话说，像豆类、谷物、水果和蔬菜这样的农作物。即使是生长需要大量水的坚果，对地球造成的危害也不及红肉生产。

"We're suggesting agriculture transitions to optimal systems, and that's plant-based," Helen Harwatt, an environmental social scientist at Harvard Law School and lead author of the letter, tells CNN.

“我们建议农业向最优系统过渡，这是基于植物的，”哈佛法学院环境社会科学家、这封信的主要作者海伦·哈瓦特告诉CNN。

The production of dairy products is responsible for about 3.6 percent of planet-warming emissions each year. (Photo: Africa Studio/Shutterstock)

It wouldn't be the first time scientists have called on rich and middle-income countries to slow down meat production for the sake of the planet. In fact, earlier this year, a United Nations panel on climate change warned of "irreversible impacts on some ecosystems."

这并不是科学家们第一次呼吁富裕国家和中等收入国家为了保护地球而减少肉类生产。事实上，今年早些时候，一个联合国气候变化专门小组就“对某些生态系统不可逆转的影响”发出了警告。

Meat producers, however, aren't so sure.

然而，肉类生产商就不那么肯定了。

"To say that cutting livestock numbers everywhere is the most efficient way of reducing emissions massively overgeneralises a situation that differs significantly across the world, and can hinder the countries that are practicing sustainable farming methods and have an ambition to do more," Stuart Roberts of the National Farmers' Union of England and Wales, explains to CNN in a statement.

“说在世界各地减少牲畜数量是减少排放的最有效的方法，这一情况在世界各地有很大的不同，而且可能阻碍一些国家正在采取可持续的耕作方法，并有更多的雄心。“英格兰和威尔士全国农民联盟的斯图尔特·罗伯茨在一份声明中向CNN解释道。

Not surprisingly, Roberts paints a much rosier picture of the livestock industry's impact on climate change.

毫不奇怪，罗伯茨对畜牧业对气候变化的影响描绘了一幅更加乐观的图景。

"Grazing cattle is the most sustainable way to use land for food production which is unsuitable for growing any other crop," he notes. "By using our grasslands in this way we can sequester carbon at the same time as turning inedible grass into a highly nutritious protein which our growing population can enjoy."

他指出:“在不适合种植其他作物的土地上放牧是最可持续的粮食生产方式。”“通过这种方式利用我们的草地，我们可以在将不可食用的草转化为我们不断增长的人口可以享用的高营养蛋白质的同时，吸收碳。”