投资者的数十亿美元正在追逐婴儿潮一代的市场

投资者的数十亿美元正在追逐婴儿潮一代的市场

If you are in the real estate business it's hard not to look at the 72 million baby boomers and think that this is going to be a giant market. According to Peter Grant in the Wall Street Journal, "Developers and senior-housing companies have spent billions of dollars over the past five years to build facilities that provide housing, food, medical care and assistance for the elderly."

如果你从事房地产行业，你很难不去关注7200万婴儿潮一代，并认为这将是一个巨大的市场。据《华尔街日报》的彼得·格兰特报道，“在过去的五年里，开发商和老年公寓公司已经花费了数十亿美元来建造为老年人提供住房、食物、医疗和援助的设施。”

If you build it, will people come? (Photo: Shutterstock)

There is only one small problem: Not too many baby boomers, the oldest of whom are 73, would consider themselves elderly. Grant keeps using the word, as do most developers, which is why they have a problem:

只有一个小问题:没有太多的婴儿潮一代认为自己老了，他们中年龄最大的已经73岁了。格兰特一直在使用这个词，就像大多数开发者一样，这就是为什么他们有一个问题:

...this wager on elderly care is falling short of expectations, and there are concerns that it could become one of the biggest real-estate miscalculations in recent memory, some analysts suggest.

一些分析师认为，这种对老年人护理的押注没有达到预期，人们担心这可能成为近年来房地产市场出现的最大误判之一。

In fact, as older people are staying healthier longer, the age at which they move into seniors housing is going up, now around 85 years old compared to 82 a decade ago. So the oldest baby boomers might not start moving into them for a dozen years.

事实上，随着老年人健康状况的持续改善，他们入住老年公寓的年龄也在上升，从十年前的82岁上升到现在的85岁左右。因此，最年长的婴儿潮一代可能要十几年后才会搬到这里来。

The baby boomers who are downsizing and moving are not going into seniors buildings; they are moving downtown into new apartments that were built for the millennials and occupied by their parents.

婴儿潮时期出生的人正在缩小规模，正在迁移，他们不会进入老年建筑;他们搬到市中心的新公寓，这些公寓是为千禧一代建造的，由他们的父母居住。

It turns out that baby boomers like downtowns for the same reasons the kids do: They can walk to stores and restaurants and don't have all their money tied up in mortgages and cars. They may not want to stay in their big suburban homes, but they don't want to hang around with old people in a retirement home.

事实证明，婴儿潮一代喜欢市中心的原因和孩子们一样:他们可以步行去商店和餐馆，而不是把所有的钱都用在抵押贷款和汽车上。他们可能不想住在郊区的大房子里，但他们也不想在养老院和老人呆在一起。

Peter Grant of the Wall Street Journal notes also that another reason that older people aren't moving is that technology is letting them stay in place.

《华尔街日报》的彼得•格兰特也指出，老年人不愿搬家的另一个原因是科技让他们留在了原来的地方。

I fell down and I can't get up! (Photo: Apple)

Here again, as we wrote previously, almost all of these things are already available in my iPhone and Apple Watch. We are already in the Apple, Google or Alexa ecosystem. They know who owns their watches and phones and are catering to them with health apps and fall detectors. These investors are designing stuff for our parents with their Jitterbug phones; I want my iPhone 11 Pro.

再一次，正如我们之前所写的，几乎所有这些东西都已经可以在我的iPhone和Apple Watch上使用了。我们已经进入了苹果、谷歌或Alexa的生态系统。他们知道谁拥有自己的手表和手机，并为他们提供健康应用程序和秋季探测器。这些投资者正在用他们的Jitterbug手机为我们的父母设计东西;我想要我的iPhone 11 Pro。

And of course, all of this really only applies to the rich, the quarter of the U.S. population who have enough money for Alexa, Siri, Apple watches and trendy apartments and personal trainers. As one study noted, "While many of these seniors will likely need the level of care provided in seniors housing, we project that 54 percent of seniors will not have sufficient financial resources to pay for it."

当然，所有这些都只适用于富人，占美国人口的四分之一，他们有足够的钱购买Alexa、Siri、苹果手表、时髦的公寓和私人教练。正如一项研究指出的那样，“虽然这些老年人中的许多人可能需要老年人住房提供的护理水平，但我们预计54%的老年人将没有足够的财政资源来支付它。”

But then, like Angie, I have never understood Smart Money. Instead of investing billions in fancy seniors real estate and technology, perhaps we need to think about the scale of the issue 10 years from now, where are the 60 million old-old boomers going to live, how they are going to get around, and who is going to take care of them or pay for this all. It is going to be a very different picture than what we are seeing now.

但是，就像安吉一样，我从来没有理解过智能货币。与其投资数十亿美元在高档的老年人的房地产和技术，也许我们需要考虑问题的规模-10年后，6000万婴儿潮时期的人将住在哪里，他们将如何四处走动，谁来照顾他们，或者为这一切支付账单。这将是一个与现在看起来非常不同的画面。