预计今年的冬天将基本是温和的，但温和并不意味着没有惊喜

美国国家海洋和大气管理局表示，预计今年的冬天将基本是温和的，但温和并不意味着没有惊喜

Most regions of the United States can expect a warmer-than-average winter this year, but don't get complacent just because you see the word "mild," says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)表示，美国大部分地区今年的冬季气温都将高于平均水平，但不要因为看到“温和”这个词就沾沾自喜。

That means there's plenty we don't know at this point on the calendar, so we'll be keeping an eye out for the next NOAA update, which is expected on Nov. 21.

这意味着在这个节目单上还有很多我们不知道的，所以我们将密切关注下一个NOAA更新，预计在11月21日。

And as we typically do, we also checked out the forecasts provided by the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, and there appears to be strong disagreement on how many layers of socks you'll need.

和我们通常做的一样，我们也检查了农民年鉴和老农民年鉴提供的预测，似乎在你需要多少层袜子的问题上存在严重分歧。

What the Farmer's Almanac says

《农民年鉴》是怎么说的

The almanacs agree on one thing: This winter could be a big uh-oh. (Photo: Phil McDonald/Shutterstock)

The staff of the Farmers' Almanac predict this winter will be so full of ups and downs that they're labeling it a "polar coaster."

《农民年鉴》的工作人员预测，今年冬天将会是大起大落，他们将其称为“极地过山车”。

The Farmers' Almanac famously predicts seasonal weather based on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and other "top secret mathematical and astronomical formulas."

著名的《农民年鉴》根据太阳黑子活动、潮汐运动、行星位置和其他“绝密的数学和天文学公式”来预测季节天气。

The Farmers' Almanac says it will be a rough winter for almost every area of the country. (Photo: Farmers' Almanac)

The coldest weather is predicted in areas east of the Rockies all the way to the Appalachians. Almanac experts predict the coldest temperatures should arrive during the final week of January and last through early February. And winter will stick around for a while. The Farmers' Almanac predicts wet snow and unseasonable chilly weather will linger across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and New England possibly until April.

据预测，落基山脉以东一直到阿巴拉契亚山脉的地区将迎来最冷的天气。历书专家预测，最冷的温度应该在1月的最后一周，一直持续到2月初。冬天还会持续一段时间。农民年鉴预测，潮湿的雪和不合时宜的寒冷天气将在中西部、五大湖区、东北部和新英格兰持续到四月。

What the Old Farmer's Almanac says

《老农年鉴》是怎么说的

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which since 1792 has made advanced forecasts for the seasons, tells people to get ready for "shivers, snowflakes and slush" this season.

与此同时，《老农年鉴》自1792年以来就对季节进行了提前预报，它告诉人们要为这个季节的“寒颤、雪花和雪泥”做好准备。

Those in Texas, Hawaii and Florida should have it easy. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)

Like the Farmers' Almanac, they also predict that cold conditions will linger well into March, particularly in the Midwest and Appalachians.

和农民年鉴一样，他们也预测寒冷的天气将持续到三月，特别是在中西部和阿巴拉契亚山脉。

Meanwhile in Canada, temperatures are predicted to be above normal everywhere except southern British Columbia. But the entire country should expect lots of snow.

与此同时，在加拿大，除了不列颠哥伦比亚省南部，其他地区的气温都将高于正常水平。但整个国家都将迎来大雪。

About those predictions

关于这些预测

Take these predictions with a grain of salt — but always be prepared. (Photo: MarkoBerkes/Shutterstock)

The Old Farmer's Almanac leans more on the side of science for its forecasts. While the exact formula is still secret, much of it is based on solar activity, prevailing weather patterns and meteorology.

《老农年鉴》在预测方面更倾向于科学。虽然准确的公式仍然是秘密，它是基于太阳活动，流行的天气模式和气象。

Despite a claimed accuracy percentage of around 80.5% on Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts, meteorologists and science journalists are quick to encourage people to take these long-range predictions with a huge grain of salt.

尽管《老农年鉴》预测的准确率高达80.5%，气象学家和科学记者们还是很快地鼓励人们对这些长期预测持保留态度。

The takeaway from all of this? Whether warm and wet or cold and snowy, the temperamental months of winter will be upon us soon enough.

这一切的意义何在?无论温暖潮湿还是寒冷多雪，我们很快就会迎来充满喜怒无常的冬季。