历书预测冬天会很糟糕，没有好天气
历书预测冬天会很糟糕，没有好天气
Stock up on the wool socks and hot chocolate; it's going to be a long winter. So says the staff of the Farmers' Almanac, who predict this winter will be so full of ups and downs, they're labeling it a "polar coaster."
储备羊毛袜和热巧克力;这将是一个漫长的冬天。《农民年鉴》的工作人员预测，今年冬天将充满起起落落，他们将其称为“极地过山车”。
The almanacs agree on one thing: This winter could be a big uh-oh. (Photo: Phil McDonald/Shutterstock)
The Farmers' Almanac famously predicts seasonal weather based on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and other "top secret mathematical and astronomical formulas."
《农民年鉴》以根据太阳黑子活动、潮汐运动、行星位置和其他“绝密数学和天文公式”来预测季节天气而闻名。
Last year's prediction called for a long, snow-filled winter, and the almanac says 2019-2020 will be much the same with above-normal snowfall over the eastern third of the country as well as the Great Plains, Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Northeast expects colder-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, which means plenty of snow, as well as rain and sleet, particularly along the coast. The Pacific Northwest and Southwest should see near-normal precipitation.
去年的预测是一个漫长的、大雪纷飞的冬天，年历上说2019-2020年美国东部三分之一地区以及大平原、中西部和五大湖地区的降雪量将超过正常水平。东北部地区预计气温将低于正常水平，降水量将高于正常水平，这意味着会有大量降雪，以及雨夹雪，尤其是沿海地区。太平洋西北部和西南部应该会有接近正常的降水。
The Farmers' Almanac says it will be a rough winter for almost every area of the country. (Photo: Farmers' Almanac)
What the Old Farmer's Almanac says
老农民年鉴怎么说的
Meanwhile, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which since 1792 has made advanced forecasts for the seasons, tells people to get ready for "shivers, snowflakes and slush" this season.
与此同时，《老农民年鉴》告诉人们，这个季节要做好“颤抖、雪花和雪泥”的准备。
Those in Texas, Hawaii and Florida should have it easy. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)
Like the Farmers' Almanac, they also predict that cold conditions will linger well into March, particularly in the Midwest and Appalachians.
和农民年鉴一样，他们也预测寒冷的天气将持续到三月份，尤其是在中西部和阿巴拉契亚山脉。
This year's almanac, however, predicts that New England will get off a little easier with "more wet than white" weather, while Florida and Texas will actually have pleasant weather.
然而，今年的年历预测，新英格兰的天气将会“比白色更潮湿”，而佛罗里达和德克萨斯的天气将会更宜人。
Canada should expect a lot of snow, but relatively mild temperatures. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)
About those predictions
关于这些预测
The Old Farmer's Almanac leans more on the side of science for its forecasts. While the exact formula is still secret, much of it is based on solar activity, prevailing weather patterns and meteorology.
《老农民年鉴》的预测更倾向于科学。虽然确切的公式仍是秘密，但其中大部分是基于太阳活动、流行的天气模式和气象学。
Take these predictions with a grain of salt — but always be prepared. (Photo: MarkoBerkes/Shutterstock)
Despite a claimed accuracy percentage of around 80.5% on Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts, meteorologists and science journalists are quick to encourage people to take these long-range predictions with a huge grain of salt.
尽管《老农民年鉴》预测的准确率高达80.5%左右，气象学家和科学记者还是很快地鼓励人们对这些长期预测持怀疑态度。
"My guess is their success rate is more like half what they say," Jonathan Martin, chairman of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, told NPR.
威斯康辛大学麦迪逊分校大气和海洋科学系主任乔纳森·马丁对美国国家公共广播电台说:“我猜他们的成功率更接近他们所说的一半。”
Others take issue with the Almanac's top-secret formula relying on solar activity.
另一些人则对年鉴中依赖太阳活动的绝密公式提出异议。
"I can tell you it's not common meteorological practice [to use space weather as an indicator], based on my years of experience and research,” Marshall Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society and professor at the University of Georgia, told TIME. “Modern meteorological forecasting is based on models representing the atmosphere and physics over time. There is an inherent limit [to forecasting] of about 7 to 10 days."
美国气象学会前会长、佐治亚大学教授马歇尔•谢泼德对《时代》杂志(TIME)表示:“我可以告诉你，根据我多年的经验和研究，(将太空天气作为一个指标)并不常见。”“现代气象预报是基于代表大气和物理随时间变化的模型。(预测)大约7至10天是有内在限制的。”
The takeaway from all of this? Enjoy summer while you can. Whether warm and wet or cold and snowy, the temperamental months of winter will be upon us all soon enough.
这一切的意义何在?尽情享受夏天吧。无论温暖潮湿还是寒冷多雪，我们很快就会迎来喜怒无常的冬季。
