婴儿潮一代将面临另一个问题:婴儿数量减少

婴儿潮一代将面临另一个问题:婴儿数量减少

Maine has the oldest population in the USA, with a median age of 44.6 years, significantly older than the 38.1 median age for the country. According to Jeff Stein in The Washington Post, the state is being "hammered by two slow-moving demographic forces — the growth of the retirement population and a simultaneous decline in young workers."

缅因州是美国人口年龄最大的州，平均年龄为44.6岁，明显高于全国38.1岁的平均年龄。据《华盛顿邮报》的杰夫·斯坦称，该州正受到“两股缓慢变化的人口力量的冲击——退休人口的增长和年轻工人数量的同时下降。”

With an aging population, who's going to pull in all the lobsters in Maine? (Photo: Christine Norton Photo/Shutterstock)

Maine recently became the first state to reach the "super-aged" threshold where 20 percent of the population is over 65; the whole country will reach that point in 2030. Health care is in crisis; finding in-home caregivers is almost impossible. Baby boomer kids are run off their feet taking care of their elderly parents. Nursing homes are closing due to lack of staff.

缅因州最近成为第一个达到“超高龄”门槛的州，超过65岁的人口占总人口的20%;到2030年，中国将达到这一目标。医疗保健处于危机之中;找到家庭护理人员几乎是不可能的。婴儿潮一代的孩子照顾年迈的父母忙得不可开交。由于缺乏工作人员，养老院正在关闭。

No kidding. Bruce Chernof, who wrote a report about this for Congress, says "left unaddressed, this will be catastrophic. We as a country have not wrapped our heads around what it's going to take to pay for long-term care."

没有开玩笑。布鲁斯·切尔诺夫(Bruce Chernof)为国会撰写了一份关于此事的报告。作为一个国家，我们还没有考虑如何支付长期医疗费用。”

Here comes the Baby Bust

婴儿数量减少时代来了

Those millennial kids aren't having any kids! (Photo: Pew Research Center)

The Economist notes that young people like to move to cities where the good jobs are (part of the problem in Maine) and where housing is very expensive and raising kids is very costly. Church attendance is also declining, and "churches tend to be in favour of children — more so than the other places where people hang out on the weekend, such as gyms and bars."

《经济学人》指出，年轻人喜欢搬到有好工作的城市(缅因州问题的一部分)，那里的住房非常昂贵，抚养孩子非常昂贵。教堂的上座率也在下降，而且“教堂倾向于支持儿童——比人们周末去健身房和酒吧等其他地方更受欢迎。”

The baby bust is, in fact, a huge contributor to the problem of dealing with the baby boom; a shrinking population means a shrinking tax base, at a time when health care costs will be going through the roof. According to the Week, "American spending on health care is expected to rise from about $4 trillion a year to $6 trillion, or 19.4 percent of GDP, by 2027."

实际上，婴儿数量减少是应对婴儿潮问题的一个重要因素;人口的减少意味着税基的减少，而此时的医疗成本将会飞涨。据本周报道，“到2027年，美国在医疗保健上的支出预计将从每年4万亿美元增加到6万亿美元，占GDP的19.4%。”

My late mom and her caregiver at our house for a party. (Photo: Lloyd Alter)

This is a problem in developed countries all over the world, and countries are taking different approaches to the problem. Japan is developing robots to take care of older people; my late mom and all her rich friends in Toronto had flying squads of Filipino caregivers, thanks to a special focused immigration program set up by the Canadian government that lets the caregivers eventually get citizenship once they have worked for a number of years.

这在世界上的发达国家都是一个问题，各国对这个问题采取了不同的方法。日本正在开发机器人来照顾老年人;我已故的母亲和她在多伦多所有富有的朋友都有菲律宾护理员的飞行队，这要感谢加拿大政府设立的一个特别关注移民的项目，该项目允许护理员在工作多年后最终获得公民身份。

Bruce Chernof was right; nobody is wrapping their heads around this problem. We have the baby boomers getting older; we have a baby bust, so nobody will be around to take care of them or generate revenue to pay for their care. We have governments that hate raising taxes and admitting immigrants, when two things we're going to need are lots of money and people, not something anyone wants to talk about these days.

布鲁斯·切诺夫是对的;没有人在这个问题上绞尽脑汁。婴儿潮时期出生的人变老了;我们有一个婴儿潮，所以没有人会照顾他们，或者产生收入来支付照顾他们的费用。我们的政府讨厌增税和接纳移民，而我们需要的两样东西是大量的资金和人才，而不是现在任何人都想谈论的东西。