将未来抵押的世界
那些不能成为全球领导者的国家，借贷吧。美国、中国和印度政府吹嘘自己经济实力强劲，但它们也在大举借贷。这不仅与它们的说法自相矛盾，而且也会损害它们未来充当全球领导者的机会。
A strong economy means government should spend less and not need to borrow at all. In all three countries, policymakers appear oblivious to the consequences of failure on this score. Will the US or China lead in coming decades? When will India become a global challenger? The answers may be neither and never. Instead the world could see a slow slide into a long stagnation.
经济强劲意味着政府应该能减少支出，而且完全不需要借钱。在这三个国家中，决策者似乎都没有注意到未能做到这一点的后果。美国或中国会在今后几十年处于全球领导地位吗?印度什么时候会成为全球挑战者?答案或许是中美都不会成为全球领导者，印度也永远不会成为全球挑战者。实际上，世界可能会缓慢滑入长期停滞状态。
Few people consider India a truly global actor but, within the next 20 years, it will have both the world’s largest population and largest labour force. It will be difficult in 2040 for the global economy to be healthy if the Indian economy is not. There is obviously a long way to go before then, and India is not going in the right direction. The government of Narendra Modi, prime minister, is obsessed with the title of “fastest-growing major economy” and insists India will reclaim that spot in 2018 or 2019.
很少有人认为印度是一个真正的全球性角色，但在今后20年里，它将拥有世界上最多的人口和最大规模的劳动力。到2040年时，如果印度经济不健康，全球经济就很难保持健康。显然在那之前还有很长的路要走，而目前印度并没有朝着正确的方向前进。印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导的政府痴迷于“增长最快的主要经济体”称号，并坚称印度会在2018年或2019年重新获得这一地位。
Yet central government borrowing will rise this year as a share of GDP, from an already excessive figure. The core of the higher deficit is a jump in the simple revenue shortfall, which overwhelms one-time accounting tricks used by politicians everywhere to dress up ugly budgets. In addition, Indian states borrow even more intensively than the national government.
然而，今年印度中央政府借款占GDP的比例将会在本已过高的基础上再次上升。赤字增加的要点就是收入缺口大幅扩大，它的影响是各地政客用来粉饰糟糕预算的一次性会计伎俩所弥补不了的。此外，印度各州的借款力度比中央政府还大。
A country growing rapidly with a young workforce should not need to do this. More important, a poor country which seeks at least a full generation of such growth should not borrow against that future. India is showing neither the vision nor will to become an economic leader.
一个拥有年轻劳动力、快速增长的国家应该不需要这样做。更重要的是，一个寻求在至少一代人时间里取得快速增长的穷国不应该拿未来作抵押借贷。印度没有表现出成为经济领导者的愿景和意志。
Many would claim China already is such a leader. It qualifies in terms of size and no shortage of people tout its performance. They acknowledge that Chinese GDP growth, for instance, has slowed by half in the past 10 years, but point out this is natural as the size of GDP expands.
许多人会说，中国已经是一个经济领导者。它在规模上符合，并且不乏人吹捧其表现。他们承认，比如中国GDP增速在过去10年中减缓一半，但他们指出，随着GDP规模的扩大，这是很自然的事情。
What is not natural is China’s bad track record on debt: according to the Bank of International Settlements, every measure of debt — consumer, government and corporate — has risen as a share of GDP for the past decade. China went from a low-leverage country in 2007 to having a worse debt position than the US in 2017, despite the fact that the US itself has borrowed heavily.
不自然的，是中国在债务方面的不良记录：根据国际清算银行(BIS)的数据，在过去十年间，每一项债务指标——消费者、政府和企业所背负的债务——与GDP的比例都有所上升。中国在2007年还是一个低杠杆国家，但到了2017年，债务状况比美国还要糟糕，尽管美国自己也大举借贷。
The bulk of Chinese debt is corporate, not explicitly government. But the bulk of corporate debt has been incurred by state-owned enterprises and underwritten by central and local government, as these firms borrow almost entirely from state-owned banks. It is thus China’s central government which has authorised a decade-long explosion in debt accumulation, even while trying to convince the world it offers a superior model of development.
中国的大部分债务是企业债务，而不是明确的政府债务。但大部分企业债务是国有企业借的，并由中央和地方政府兜底，因为这些企业几乎全部从国有银行借款。因此，正是中国的中央政府授权了长达十年的债务规模爆炸式增长，尽管它试图让世界相信，它提供了一种优越的发展模式。
Those who favour US global leadership can be reassured by China’s poor choices. But America’s own choices are disturbing. The US already faces enormous spending obligations in the form of entitlement programmes. Combined national government spending on healthcare hit $1tn in 2015 and social security spending is projected to hit an additional $1tn this year.
那些支持美国担任全球领导者的人可能对中国糟糕的选择感到庆幸。但是美国自己的选择同样令人不安。美国已经因社会福利项目面临巨大的支出义务。2015年，全国政府医疗保健支出合计达到1万亿美元，今年的社会保障支出预计也将达到1万亿美元。
The 2017 federal budget deficit was $650bn and expected to rise over time as the country ages. Now, enter the tax cut. Congress and the administration had reason to cut corporate tax rates, but they did so by $1.5tn and with no offsetting tax increase elsewhere. The recent spending bill adds $300bn to that.
2017年联邦预算赤字为6500亿美元，而且预计随着美国步入老龄化还会不断增加。再来看减税。美国国会和政府有理由削减企业税率，但他们要减少1.5万亿美元的税收，而且没有其他地方的税收增长来抵消减税的影响。最近的支出法案又让美国多了3000亿美元的支出。
The federal deficit could thus reach $1tn in 2018 and, if not this year, then next. This is not happening during a crisis like the one in 2008. While there are problems with labour force participation and inequality, unemployment is 4.1 per cent and the US economy added $7tn in wealth over the most recent 12 months. Yet national debt is set to soar.
2018年联邦赤字可能达到1万亿美元，如果今年达不到，那就是下一年。就算是在2008年这样的危机时期都没有出现1万亿美元的赤字。虽然存在劳动力参与和不平等问题，失业率也达到了4.1%，但美国经济在最近12个月里增加了7万亿美元的财富。不过，美国国家债务即将飙升。
US federal borrowing has no justification. If China is telling the truth about its economy, it has no excuse for its corporate debt. If India wants a bright future, it cannot mortgage it now. No country has ever prospered from heavy government borrowing when times are good. Yet this is what the world’s economic leaders have to offer. They are walking into quicksand and could drag everyone else with them.
美国联邦政府没有理由借贷。如果中国没有隐瞒自己的经济真相，那么它的企业债务就没有理由。如果印度想要一个光明的未来，它现在就不能拿未来作抵押。从来没有一个国家在形势大好之时靠巨额政府借贷实现繁荣昌盛。然而，债务正是当今世界经济领导者所提供的。它们正在走进流沙之中，最终可能拖累所有人。
Derek Scissors is resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on the Chinese and Indian economies and their relations with the US. He is concurrently chief economist at China Beige Book.
本文作者是美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常驻学者，主要研究中国和印度经济以及它们与美国的关系。他同时还担任《中国黄皮书》(China Beige Book)首席经济学家
