2018年保持乐观的理由
2018年的大幕已徐徐拉开，但经济和地缘政治信号指向了截然不同的方向。全球股市处于创纪录高位，多数发达国家的经济信心都在增长。然而，虽然投资者感到乐观，但关注国际政治形势的人们却非常紧张。
In recent years, it has tended to be the Middle East that delivers bad news, and Asia that specialises in optimism. This year could reverse that pattern. The biggest geopolitical risk is a war on the Korean peninsula. If the US carries through on President Donald Trump’s threat to use “fire and fury” to disarm North Korea it will be the first time that America has gone to war with another nuclear-armed state. The risks are literally incalculable.
前些年，带来坏消息的往往是中东，亚洲则负责带来乐观。今年情况可能会反过来。最大的地缘政治风险是朝鲜半岛爆发战争。如果美国兑现唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统发出的威胁——用“火与怒”解除朝鲜核武装——这将是美国首次同另一个拥有核武器的国家开战。这风险简直无法估量。
By contrast, there are several big things that could finally go right in the Middle East. The combination of turmoil in Iran, liberalising reforms in Saudi Arabia and the final defeat of Islamic State on the battlefield would all be serious setbacks for the most fundamentalist and confrontational forms of Islamism.
相比之下，中东有几件大事最终可能出现转圜。伊朗的动荡、沙特阿拉伯的自由化改革以及“伊斯兰国”(Islamic State)最终在战场上被击败，都将成为伊斯兰主义中原教旨势力和好战势力的重大挫折。
Investors and economists seem to be discounting the risk of war in North Korea. But national security experts are much less sanguine. Many say that the atmosphere in Washington now is uncomfortably reminiscent of the mood before the invasion of Iraq in 2003 — when the US foreign policy establishment talked itself into believing that a pre-emptive war against Saddam Hussein was a good idea. In a similar manner, war with North Korea is moving from the unthinkable into the thinkable column.
投资者和经济学家似乎低估了朝鲜半岛爆发战争的风险。但国家安全专家悲观得多。许多人表示，华盛顿如今的气氛跟2003年美国入侵伊拉克之前可怕地相像——当时美国外交政策机构说服自己相信，对萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)发动先发制人的战争是个好主意。如出一辙的是，对朝鲜发动战争如今正在从不可想象之事变为一个可以斟酌的选项。
Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says that war is “inevitable” — if North Korea does not halt its nuclear weapons programme. General HR McMaster, the president’s chief national security adviser, is also sounding increasingly hawkish. He has pledged that the US will “do anything necessary” to stop Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.
美国参议院军事委员会(Senate Armed Services Committee)的共和党成员林赛•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)称，如果朝鲜不停止核武计划，战争将“不可避免”。总统首席国家安全顾问赫伯特•雷蒙德•麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)将军的论调也越来越强硬。他誓言美国将“采取一切必要手段”阻止平壤的核计划。
These uncompromising statements need to be weighed against the factors that have always deterred an American attack — above all the threat that North Korean retaliation could cause hundreds of thousands of casualties in neighbouring South Korea.
需要结合那些一直令美国不敢发动攻击的因素来看待上述强硬言论——其中最重要的因素是朝鲜的报复可能导致邻国韩国出现无数伤亡。
One possibility is that the US military has told the White House that it can keep casualties in South Korea to an acceptable level — by pre-emptive strikes that target the North Korean missiles aimed at Seoul, the South Korean capital. But, even if that worked, it would leave open the question of how to find and secure the regime’s nuclear weapons — a mission that would probably have to involve ground troops.
一种可能性是，美国军方已向白宫表示，可以通过如下方式将韩国出现的伤亡人数维持在可接受的水平：对瞄准韩国首都首尔的朝鲜导弹进行先发制人的打击。但即便这一策略能奏效，一个问题依然存在：如何找到和控制住平壤的核武器——这是一项很可能需要地面部队参与的任务。
It still sounds too dangerous to contemplate, particularly given that America’s closest Asian allies — Japan, South Korea and Australia — would be very unlikely to back a pre-emptive strike. A New Year’s message from Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, played upon this division — threatening the US with nuclear weapons, while offering dialogue with South Korea.
这样做听起来还是太危险，根本不能纳入考虑，尤其是考虑到美国最亲密的亚洲盟友——日本、韩国和澳大利亚——几乎不可能支持先发制人的打击。朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)在新年贺词中就利用了这种分歧——用核武器威胁美国，同时表示愿与韩国进行对话。
So my starting assumption for 2018 is that there will not, in the end, be a war on the Korean peninsula. A conventional president would worry deeply that US “credibility” would be compromised by a failure to deliver on his solemn promise to stop North Korea’s nuclear programme. But President Trump invents his own reality, so is much less likely to be concerned by appearances.
因此，我对2018年的头一个预测是，朝鲜半岛最终不会爆发战争。一位惯常的总统可能极为担心的是，如果未能兑现自己阻止朝鲜核计划的庄重承诺，美国的“可信性”会受损。但是，特朗普总统生活在他自己想象出来的“现实”里，因此不大可能受表面上的“食言”所困扰。
In any case, one good rule about geopolitical predictions is that the truly world-changing events — from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the terrorist attacks of 9/11 — are the ones that the experts had not foreseen. This week’s unanticipated outbreak of demonstrations on the streets of Iran is a useful reminder of that fact.
无论如何，一条关于地缘政治预测的屡试不爽的规律是，真正改变世界的事件——从柏林墙倒塌到9•11恐怖袭击——都是专家们未曾预见到的。上周伊朗街头意外爆发的示威活动便很好地提醒了我们记住这一事实。
Pessimism is usually the best bet in the Middle East. From the Iraq war to the Arab spring to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the most gloomy assessments are often vindicated. So it should be acknowledged that in Iran, the likeliest outcome is that the current rash of protests will fizzle out or be crushed, as they were in 2009.
对于中东，悲观的预测通常是没错的。从伊拉克战争到“阿拉伯之春”再到巴以和平进程，最悲观的判断往往被证明是正确的。因此，应该承认，就伊朗当前的抗议活动而言，最可能的结局是，它会虎头蛇尾地消失，或像2009年那样被镇压。
On the other hand, Islamist fundamentalism is an economic and social dead-end — and people stuck in a dead-end eventually try to reverse their way out. Something of the sort may already be under way in Saudi Arabia, where the impetuous crown prince Mohammed bin Salman seems genuinely determined to take on the Wahhabi establishment. If the rivalrous groups of Islamist hardliners lose ground in Riyadh and Tehran — and on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq — then 2018 could go down as a year of historic setbacks for Islamist fundamentalism.
另一方面，伊斯兰原教旨主义道路无论在经济上还是社会上都是一条死胡同——卡在死胡同里的人们最终将设法转身寻找新出路。这种转身可能已经在沙特出现，冲劲十足的王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)看上去已下定决心要向瓦哈比派建制派开战。如果伊斯兰强硬派的对抗组织在利雅得和德黑兰(以及在叙利亚和伊拉克的战场上)节节败退，那2018年可能会成为伊斯兰原教旨主义遭受历史性挫折的一年。
After a dismal run in world politics, it is certainly time to be reminded that there can be good, as well as bad, surprises. My own new year’s resolution is to try to snap out of Trump and Brexit-induced gloom.
在对世界政治进行过一番惨淡分析之后，我们当然应该提醒自己，未来可能还会有我们未曾预料到的好事(以及坏事)发生。我自己的新年决心是设法从特朗普和英国退欧引发的悲观情绪中振作起来。
In that spirit, I will predict that most of the big risks that currently worry pundits will not happen. There will not be a war on the Korean peninsula, nor will there be one in the South China Sea or in eastern Europe. The EU will not fall apart, Brexit negotiations will not break down and markets will not crash. By contrast, there will be big and positive change in the Middle East. And England will win the World Cup.
本着这种精神，我认为，当前令专家们担心的多数重大风险都不会发生。朝鲜半岛不会爆发战争，南中国海和东欧也不会。欧盟不会分崩离析，英国退欧谈判不会破裂，股市也不会崩盘。相比之下，中东地区将出现巨大而积极的变化。英格兰队还将赢得世界杯。
