与FT共进午餐：46年前的“斯诺登”
我原以为自己会看到一位久病衰弱者。丹尼尔•艾尔斯伯格(Daniel Ellsberg)的出版商前一阵子发来邮件称，他患上了喉炎，需要休息，而且他的精力容易衰退。他们问我，能否将这顿午餐提前到中午之前。我无法责怪一位86岁的老人想要缩短我们的约会。
Shortly after I take a seat at our table, a sprightly, besuited man wanders in. The only hint of infirmity is a large pink hearing aid protruding from his left ear. I rush to help Ellsberg with his coat. It takes a while to disentangle him. “I got this in Moscow when I visited Edward Snowden,” he says, as if apologising for the garment. The moment we are seated, he asks a waiter for chamomile tea with honey. “I need it for my throat,” he says. Several times over lunch he explains he cannot talk for long. “My voice is going very fast,” he says. It begins weakly but grows steadily more animated. Two hours later he is still talking.
我在我们的桌边坐下不久后，一位精神矍铄、身着套装的男士走了进来。唯一的衰落迹象是他左耳露出的粉红色助听器。我急忙起身去帮艾尔斯伯格脱外套，这花了好一会儿。“我在莫斯科拜访爱德华•斯诺登(Edward Snowden)时买了这件衣服。”他开口道，仿佛在为这件外套道歉。我们落座后，他向服务员要了一杯蜂蜜甘菊茶。他说：“我的喉咙需要这个。”整个午餐期间，他几次解释自己不能说太久话。他说：“我的声音很快就没了。”他的声音在开始时有气无力，但渐渐变得兴奋起来。两小时后，他还在讲话。
The venue is The Oval Room, an upmarket modern American restaurant the other side of Lafayette Square to the White House. The reason is Ellsberg’s new book, The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, which came out this week after decades of gestation. Ellsberg is best known for having leaked the Pentagon Papers in 1971, revealing that America’s generals had known for years that the best outcome in Vietnam was a military stalemate. Yet they, and successive White House commanders-in-chief, had pressed on for fear of sacrificing US credibility.
我们共进午餐的地方是The Oval Room，这是一家高档现代美式餐厅，位于白宫面向的拉斐特广场的另一侧。这次会面的由头是，艾尔斯伯格的新书《末日机器：一个核战策划者的自白》(The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner)在经过几十年的酝酿后终于出版。艾尔斯伯格因在1971年泄露“五角大楼文件”(Pentagon Papers)而闻名，该文件揭露了美军将领们早在数年前就知道，越战最好的结果是一场军事僵局。然而他们——以及身为三军总司令的历届白宫主人——无谓地延续那场战争，就因为担心美国的可信度受损。
The 7,000-page leak, which Ellsberg smuggled from his office at the Rand Corporation and spent nights xeroxing, helped destroy whatever remaining case there was for the Vietnam war. Two weeks afterwards Ellsberg turned himself in to the authorities. It was later revealed that Richard Nixon, the then president, who had done his best to stop publication of the Pentagon Papers, had promised the presiding judge that he would appoint him as the next head of the FBI. It was the judge’s life-long ambition, but the gambit failed. The espionage trial, which could have resulted in a 115-year jail term, was declared a mistrial. Ellsberg walked free.
艾尔斯伯格从他在兰德公司(Rand Corporation)的办公室偷偷带出这些文件，再用好几个夜晚复印出来。在这7000页泄密文件的帮助下，延长越南战争的剩余理由被彻底否定。两星期后，艾尔斯伯格向有关部门自首。后来世人得知，曾竭尽全力阻止“五角大楼文件”公诸于众的时任总统理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)，曾向主审法官许诺，将任命其为下一任联邦调查局(FBI)局长，这是后者毕生的雄心，但尼克松的算盘落了空。这桩间谍案的庭审——本来可能导致艾尔斯伯格被判处115年监禁——被宣告无效，艾尔斯伯格当庭释放。
Less well known is that Ellsberg was one of cold war America’s most senior nuclear planners. First at the Pentagon, then at the Rand Corporation, he helped devise the nuclear doctrines that still hold today. Ellsberg went from being a brilliant cold war hawk to becoming an advocate of nuclear elimination.
不那么为人所知的是，艾尔斯伯格还是冷战时期美国最资深的核规划者之一，他先是在五角大楼工作，随后进了兰德公司，他参与制定的核战略思想沿用至今。后来，艾尔斯伯格从一名杰出的冷战鹰派人物变成了废除核武器的倡导者。
He has been trying to sell this book on and off since 1975. Nobody wanted to read about nuclear weapons. “My previous agent, who was very good, said he would not represent me on a nuclear book,” says Ellsberg. “Even five years ago this same book was rejected by 17 different publishers on commercial grounds.” Then something changed. Perhaps it was Russia’s annexation of Crimea, or North Korea’s nuclear advance, or Donald Trump’s candidacy. Why was it snapped up now when no one else had wanted it, I ask? The world got scarier, he replies. “The only silver lining to today’s world is that people now want to read my book,” he says.
自1975年以来，艾尔斯伯格一直努力想把这本书卖出去。但没人想看关于核武器的书。艾尔斯伯格说：“我的前一位经纪人——非常能干——说他不会代理我的核武器著作。就在5年前，这本书还被17家出版商以商业理由拒绝了。”然后情况有了变化。也许是俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，也许是朝鲜的核武进展，又或者是唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的当选。我问道，为什么这本书过去无人问津，而现在变得如此抢手呢?他回答说，因为世界变得更恐怖了。他说：“当今世界仅存的一线希望是，人们现在想要读我的书。”
We order our starters. Ellsberg chooses beet salad and I opt for lobster bisque. Ellsberg is keen to avoid anything with salt in it. The waiter promises to oblige. Ellsberg’s salt aversion reminds me of the botched attempt to mess with his state of mind before he addressed an antiwar rally in 1971. Nixon’s aides hatched the idea of putting LSD in Ellsberg’s soup, hoping to depict him as a deranged hippie. The operatives charged with executing the plan failed to get the instructions in time. Ellsberg is something of an expert on bungled hatchet jobs. His psychiatrist’s office was burgled on Nixon’s instructions, with the goal of finding doctor’s notes that would raise doubts about Ellsberg’s sanity. His case file turned out to be innocuous. “They tried all sorts of tricks on me,” he recalls.
我们点了开胃菜。艾尔斯伯格点了甜菜沙拉，我选了龙虾浓汤。艾尔斯伯格极力强调他的菜里不要放盐。服务员承诺会满足他的要求。艾尔斯伯格对盐的厌恶让我想起1971年时的一起拙劣尝试，目的是在他在一个反战集会发表演讲前扰乱他的精神状态。当时尼克松的助手们想出一个馊主意：把LSD(一种致幻剂)放入艾尔斯伯格的汤里，希望他在众目睽睽之下变成一个疯狂的嬉皮士，结果负责执行计划的行动人员未能及时得到指令。说到这类拙劣的下三滥手段，艾尔斯伯格可谓是一个专家。尼克松曾授意撬开他的心理医生的办公室行窃，意图找到医生的笔记，以便抹黑艾尔斯伯格的精神状况。结果发现他的病历毫无问题。他回忆道：“他们对我使出了各种诡计。”
I was keen to go further back in Ellsberg’s life than that. When he was 15, his father crashed the car that was carrying his family. Ellsberg’s mother and younger sister were killed. Ellsberg nearly joined them. He was in a coma for almost four days. How has that affected him? “The car crash alerted me to the possibility that the world can change in a flash for the worst,” he says. “That is the story I have been telling myself for more than 70 years.”
我很想探寻艾尔斯伯格更早的生活经历。他15岁时，父亲开车载着全家人出行，结果发生车祸，他的母亲和妹妹遇难。艾尔斯伯格差点也随她们而去，他昏迷了近四天。这段经历对他有什么影响吗?他说：“那次车祸让我意识到，你的世界可能在转瞬之间崩塌。70多年来我不断这么告诉自己。”
But in the past few months he has been revising what he thinks of the tragedy. “Was it really an accident?” he asks. His new answer is complex. It also goes some way to explaining why Ellsberg is more worried about human fallibility than most people.
但在过去几个月里，他在修正自己对那场悲剧的看法。他问道：“那真的是一场意外吗?”他有了一个复杂的新答案，这个答案在某种程度上也解释了为什么艾尔斯伯格比多数人更为担心人为错误。
The tragedy occurred on the July 4 holiday in 1946. Ellsberg’s mother wanted to drive to Denver from Detroit, where they lived. She forgot to book a motel for the first night, so they slept on the dunes of Lake Michigan. Ellsberg and his father shivered under blankets on the beach for most of the night. His mother and sister slept in the car. “I remember my father hardly got any sleep,” Ellsberg recalled. “I also remember waking up in the middle of the night and seeing falling stars, this shower of meteors — I’d never seen so many.”
悲剧发生在1946年7月4日独立日。艾尔斯伯格的母亲希望从他们家所在的底特律开车去丹佛。她忘了预定第一天晚上的汽车旅馆，所以一家人只能睡在密歇根湖畔的沙丘上。那天晚上，艾尔斯伯格和他父亲大部分时间都盖着毯子躺在沙滩上冻得发抖。他的母亲和妹妹睡在车里。艾尔斯伯格回忆说：“我记得我父亲几乎没睡过。我还记得半夜醒来看到流星，那是一场流星雨——我从没看到过那么多流星。”
The next day, Ellsberg’s father kept saying he was too tired to drive, and suggested they pull over. But his mother said they should press on. At some point in the middle of Iowa’s cornfields, Ellsberg’s father must have nodded off at the wheel. They veered calamitously off the road. “‘Accident’ is the wrong word,” says Ellsberg. “It was an accident in the sense that nobody intended it to happen. But both my parents knew the risks and they took the gamble anyway.”
第二天，艾尔斯伯格的父亲一直说他太累，开不了车，并建议靠边停车。但他的母亲说他们应该继续赶路。车行驶到爱荷华州大片玉米地中的某处时，艾尔斯伯格的父亲一定是在方向盘后打了个盹。车不幸冲出了公路。艾尔斯伯格说：“说‘事故’是不对的。说这是一起事故，只是因为没人希望它发生。而我的父母都知道有风险，但他们还是选择赌一把。”
Ellsberg relates this calmly but sadly. He also draws the natural parallel. “Nuclear war is also an accident waiting to happen,” he says. “The world has been preparing for nuclear catastrophe — for the end of civilisation — for 70 years now. I know: I have seen the plans.”
艾尔斯伯格在讲述这件事时冷静而伤感。他还自然地打了个比方。“核战争也是一场等着发生的事故，”他表示，“这个世界过去70年来一直在准备迎接核灾难，迎接文明的终结。我知道：我看过这些计划。”
The incident taught Ellsberg that leaders whom you trust and even love — like his father — can gamble for little upside with everything they hold dear. “He should never have been driving,” Ellsberg says. “My mother should have listened to him.” It was a straight road. There were no other cars. “It was not as if we were hit by a meteor,” he adds.
这个事故让艾尔斯伯格明白，你所信任、甚至爱戴的领袖——比如他的父亲——也可能会孤注一掷，在明知道对自己珍爱的一切没什么好处的情况下鲁莽行事。“他根本不应该开车，”艾尔斯伯格表示，“我的母亲应该听他的话。”那是一条笔直的道路。没有其他汽车。“这又不是我们被流星击中，”他补充称。
Our waiter interrupts to say that Ellsberg’s choice of entrée, the pan-roasted Amish chicken, is too salty — it has been brined for three days. “Oh, that’s off the menu then,” says Ellsberg. He substitutes it with a crispy skin salmon and lentils. I have ordered a magret duck breast with bok choi. “That’s a pity,” Ellsberg adds. “Amish had a good ring to me there. I’m more appreciative of all the peace religions than I was before, including the Christian Scientists.” Although Jewish by ethnicity, Ellsberg was raised a Christian Scientist. After the car crash, his father refused Ellsberg any medical treatment, in keeping with the sect’s practice. Relatives managed to remove the injured boy to another hospital. “If they hadn’t reset my knee, one of my legs would be an inch-and-a-half shorter,” he says. “Anyway, it put me off Christian Science.”
服务员打断了我们，说艾尔斯伯格选择的主菜——平底锅烤阿米什鸡——太咸了，因为鸡已经腌了三天。“噢，那就不选了，”艾尔斯伯格表示。他又选了脆皮三文鱼和小扁豆。我点了鸭胸肉配白菜。“真遗憾，”艾尔斯伯格补充称，“我喜欢阿米什这个名称(阿米什(Amish)是基督教的一个分支，其信徒过着简朴生活，拒绝现代设施——译者注)。如今我比以前更欣赏所有的和平宗教，包括基督科学教(Christian Science)。”尽管艾尔斯伯格是犹太人，但他家里把他培养成一名基督科学教徒。车祸发生后，他的父亲依照该教派的惯例，拒绝让艾尔斯伯格接受医治。亲戚们最终把受伤的艾尔斯伯格转到其他医院。“如果他们没有给我的膝盖做置换术，我会有一条腿短1.5英寸，”他表示，“无论如何，这让我远离了基督科学教。”
Could Ellsberg imagine he would have been a whistleblower without his tragedy? He ponders for a while. He has become a friend both to Snowden, who is in exile in Moscow after having dumped mountains of data from the National Security Agency, and Chelsea Manning, the former US soldier who was jailed for having released troves of US diplomatic cables. Ellsberg has also made a point of befriending corporate whistleblowers. In each case, he quizzes them about their motives. “We all agree on three things,” he says. “First, what we know about what is happening is wrong. Second, people should know about it. Third, I will tell them.”
如果没有那场悲剧，艾尔斯伯格能想象到自己成为泄密者吗?他想了一会儿。他现在是斯诺登和切尔西•曼宁(Chelsea Manning)的朋友。前者在泄露美国国家安全局(NSA)大量数据后逃亡莫斯科，后者是曾因泄露大量美国外交电文而被监禁的前美国军人。艾尔斯伯格还刻意与企业泄密者交朋友。对于每个泄密者，他都会询问他们的动机。“我们都认同三件事，”他表示，“第一，我们所了解的当下正在发生的事情是错误的。第二，人们应该知道这一点。第三，我会告诉他们。”
The only part neither Ellsberg nor his fellow whistleblowers can explain is the third. Why them? Why don’t more people come forward? Ellsberg says Snowden has the best answer. “People have careers, jobs, security — they don’t want to risk that,” he says. He then tells me that he once read that whistleblowers divorce on average within 18 months of speaking out. Their spouses did not sign up for the change of location, the pressure or the condemnation from their peers. “Perhaps that is the most important thing,” says Ellsberg. “It’s something about humanity — the fear of ostracism. People will go along with almost anything, including risking the end of the world, to avoid being ostracised.”
艾尔斯伯格和他的泄密者朋友唯一都无法解释的部分是第三点。为什么是他们?为什么其他人没有站出来?艾尔斯伯格说，斯诺登拿出了最好的答案。“人们拥有事业、工作、安全——他们不想冒险，”他表示。接着他告诉我，他曾经看过一项数据，称泄密者平均而言会在泄密后18个月内离婚。配偶和他们结婚，并不是为了更换住址和面临同龄人的指责。“或许这是最重要的事，”艾尔斯伯格表示，“这与人性有关——人对于被排斥的恐惧。为了避免被排斥，人们几乎会忍受所有事，包括冒着世界终结的风险。”
I ask if Ellsberg hopes his new book will inspire nuclear personnel to become whistleblowers. “Well, you know, nuclear warheads can’t read,” he says. “But the people working in the silos have a lot of time on their hands: they tend to apply to work in these bunkers so they can complete correspondence degrees and such like. They have time to read. I hope my book triggers a lot of resignations.” I tell Ellsberg that I was at a conference in Halifax last month when General John Hyten, head of the US strategic command that controls America’s nuclear arsenal, said he would refuse an “illegal order” from the president to use nuclear weapons.
我问艾尔斯伯格，他是否希望他的新书鼓舞核武部队人员成为泄密者。“嗯，你知道，核弹头不会看书，”他表示，“但是在核武器发射井里工作的人手头有很多时间：他们申请在地下掩体里工作，往往是为了完成函授学位之类的课程。他们有时间读书。我希望我的书能触动很多人辞职。”我告诉艾尔斯伯格，我上个月在加拿大哈利法克斯市参加会议，当时控制美国核武库的美国战略司令部(US Strategic Command，简称USSTRATCOM)司令约翰•海滕将军(General John Hyten)表示，他会拒绝总统发出的使用核武器的“非法命令”。
It has been more than an hour and we have yet to talk about President Trump. Given that we are a stone’s throw from the White House, this must rank as something of a milestone. Ellsberg is dismissive of Hyten’s reassurance. “No president ever believes he is doing anything illegal,” he says. “Trump is different in that he talks about that openly. He says whatever he does is legal, just like Nixon said. Of course Trump is much more unbalanced than most presidents, but Hyten was talking nonsense. Which American officer has ever been sent to jail for obeying orders? Name me one. Besides, if the general refused the president’s order, Trump could fire him and replace him with someone who would.” At this point Ellsberg’s publicist approaches to remind him that his voice will go if he carries on talking. “I’ll be a few more minutes,” Ellsberg replies amiably. “I am enjoying this.”
谈了一个多小时，我们还没有说到特朗普总统。鉴于我们距离白宫仅有一箭之遥，这肯定算得上一个里程碑。艾尔斯伯格对海滕的保证不以为然。“没有一个总统会相信自己在做违法的事情，”他表示。“特朗普的不同之处在于他公开谈论这个问题。他说，他所做的一切都是合法的，就像当年尼克松所说的那样。当然，特朗普比多数总统更不平衡，但是海滕的的话是胡扯。有哪位美国军官因为服从命令而被判入狱?有谁说得出一个吗?再说，如果将军拒绝总统的命令，特朗普可以撤销他的职务，换上一个听话的人。”说到这里，艾尔斯伯格的公关人员走过来提醒他说，如果他再说下去，他的嗓子会受不了。“我还有几分钟就好了，”艾尔斯伯格温和地回答。“我享受此时此刻。”
So is Trump no better or worse than his predecessors, I ask. Ellsberg confesses to having voted “reluctantly” for Hillary Clinton last year. But Trump is only publicly declaring what many presidents do privately, he says. “Do you think Trump is the first president to grope a woman? Do you think he’s the first racist in the White House?” No, I answer. But surely he’s the least stable. Ellsberg agrees. But first he reminds me of Nixon’s anti-Semitism, something that was captured on the Oval Office tapes in the context of a discussion about Ellsberg. “Most Jews are disloyal,” said Nixon. “You can’t trust the bastards. They turn on you.”
我问道，那么特朗普比他的前任更好还是更差劲。艾尔斯伯格坦白称，去年他“不情愿地”投票支持了希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。但他称，特朗普只是公开宣告了很多总统私下做的事情。“你认为特朗普是第一位猥亵女性的总统吗?你认为他是白宫第一名种族主义者吗?”不是，我回答道。但是他肯定是最不稳定的一个。艾尔斯伯格表示赞同。但是首先，他提醒我注意尼克松的反犹太主义，这是椭圆形办公室的录音带记录在案的，当时尼克松在讨论艾尔斯伯格。“大多数犹太人都不忠诚，”尼克松表示，“你无法信任这些混蛋。他们会背叛你。”
Ellsberg then turns to North Korea. He believes Trump has largely created the crisis by saying North Korea will not become a nuclear weapons state on his watch. “‘I won’t let it happen,’ according to Trump,” says Ellsberg. “But it already did happen before he took office.”
然后艾尔斯伯格转向了朝鲜问题。他认为这场危机在很大程度上源自特朗普的表态，即在他主政期间，朝鲜不会成为一个核武国家。“‘我不会让那发生的’，特朗普说，”艾尔斯伯格表示，“但在他上台之前，那已经是既成事实。”
The result is that the US is now, for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, threatening to attack a country equipped with nuclear weapons. “We are talking openly about assassination teams, about full-scale invasion exercises, about the decapitation of North Korea’s leadership. This is insanity. HR McMaster [Trump’s national security adviser] says we’re moving closer to nuclear war every day. It’s crazy.”
结果是，自1962年古巴导弹危机以来，美国首次威胁要攻击一个有核武的国家。“我们在公开讨论暗杀小组、全面入侵演习、对朝鲜领导层进行斩首。太疯狂了。(特朗普的国家安全顾问)赫伯特•雷蒙德•麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)说，我们每天都离核战争更近一点。这简直是疯了。”
The result of Trump’s words is to accelerate Kim Jong Un’s missile programme. Trump has convinced Kim that North Korea’s ability to obliterate South Korea and parts of Japan would not deter the US. Only the capability of hitting the US mainland would suffice. As a result, North Korea has stepped up its intercontinental ballistic missile development. It is only a matter of time — “perhaps weeks” — before Kim tests a hydrogen bomb in the atmosphere, which he needs to do for his ICBMs to be credible. At which point, all bets are off, says Ellsberg. “Trump is at least pretending to be unstable and crazy,” he says. “At the moment he’s fooling me.”
特朗普的言论导致金正恩(Kim Jong Un)加速推进导弹计划。特朗普让金正恩意识到，就算朝鲜有能力毁灭韩国，毁灭日本部分地区，也无法威慑美国。只有当朝鲜拥有打击美国本土的能力，才能达到吓阻美国的目的。结果是，朝鲜加大力度开发洲际弹道导弹。对金正恩而言，在大气层试验氢弹只是时间问题，“可能只有数周”;要使其洲际弹道导弹有威慑力，金正恩就需要做这一试验。艾尔斯伯格说，到那个时候，任何事情都可能发生。“至少现在特朗普在假装反复无常和疯狂。”他说，“眼下我看不透他的心思。”
By this point I am drinking an espresso, although profoundly regretting not having ordered a large cognac. Ellsberg is back on the chamomile and honey. Does anything give him cause for optimism? He mentions Mikhail Gorbachev and Nelson Mandela and others who improved the world, but keeps returning to his abiding theme: humans control nuclear weapons and they are fallible. Leaders in the US and Russia have delegated the authority to use them to underlings. The US alone possesses an arsenal large enough to destroy the world hundreds of times over. Barack Obama could not cut America’s nuclear capacity in spite of wanting to. Instead the Pentagon persuaded him to spend another $1tn modernising America’s arsenal. “The chances that we can get off the Titanic are vanishing,” says Ellsberg. “But in spite of all this I am an optimist,” he adds. My ears prick up. It sounds like Ellsberg is going to end on an upbeat note. “The human race would not go extinct from a nuclear winter,” he says. “One or two per cent of us would survive, living on molluscs in places like Australia and New Zealand. Civilisation would certainly disappear. But we would survive as a species.”
此时我已经在喝浓缩咖啡，尽管在内心深处后悔没有点一大杯白兰地。艾尔斯伯格又开始喝蜂蜜甘菊茶。这世界上有任何事情让他有理由乐观吗?他提到了米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)、纳尔逊•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)和其他让世界变得更美好的人，但最后还是回到他永恒的主题：人类掌控着核武器，而人类是会犯错的。美国和俄罗斯的领导人把动用核武器的权力下放给下属。仅美国拥有的核武库就足以毁灭这个世界数百次。尽管巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)有削减美国核能力的意愿，但他做不到。相反，五角大楼说服了奥巴马再支出1万亿美元更新美国的核武库。“我们能从泰坦尼克号(Titanic)安然下船的几率正在消失。”他说，“我们中有1%或者2%的人会活下来，在澳大利亚和新西兰这样的地方靠吃软体动物生存。文明肯定会消失。但人类作为一个物种会生存下去。”
Buoyed by this slim chance of reprieve, I hint that it is probably time to leave. It has been two hours since we started talking, though it has sailed by. To my amusement, we spend 10 minutes chatting by the coat rack. It takes another five to get him out the door. “Give me your card,” says a full-throated Ellsberg as we finally take our leave. “I want to continue talking.”
抓住这个稍纵即逝的喘息机会，我暗示很可能是时候离开了。我们已经谈了两个小时，尽管谈得很投机。让我感到好笑的是，我们在衣帽架旁边又聊了10分钟。又过了5分钟才陪着他走出餐厅。“给我一张你的名片，”在我们终于分别之际，声音仍旧洪亮的艾尔斯伯格说，“我还想继续聊。”
Edward Luce is the FT’s chief US columnist and commentator
爱德华•卢斯是英国《金融时报》首席美国专栏作家和评论员
