推销未来：反制怀旧民族主义的唯一办法

The easiest way to win votes these days is by selling the past. “Nostalgic nationalism”, as my FT colleague Gideon Rachman writes, unites Brexit’s “Take Back Control”, Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and Vladimir Putin’s reassertion of Russian power. There’s only one viable counter-strategy, and French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is trying it in this spring’s election: he is selling the future.

如今，推销往昔成了赢得选票的最容易方式。正如我在英国《金融时报》的同事吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)所写的，“怀旧民族主义”是一条主线，贯穿着英国退欧阵营的“拿回控制权”(Take Back Control)、唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“让美国再次伟大起来”(Make America Great Again)以及弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)重新宣示俄罗斯实力的努力。只有一种切实可行的反制策略，法国总统候选人埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)正在今春的选举中尝试这种策略：推销未来。

The one guaranteed losing strategy nowadays is selling the present. Hillary Clinton and the UK’s Remain campaign against Brexit went down defending the status quo. Selling the present now probably works only in Germany, a country inoculated by its history against both nostalgic nationalism and utopianism. So Angela Merkel will run this autumn as the most reassuringly unchangeable figure imaginable: “Mutti” (Mummy). Everywhere else, you run either as the past or the future.

推销当下已成为一种注定失败的策略。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)以及英国留欧阵营都因为捍卫现状而失败。如今，推销当下可能只在德国管用，这个国家被历史接种了抵御怀旧民族主义和乌托邦主义的疫苗。因此，安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)将以可想象到的最让人放心的不变角色——“妈妈(Mutti)”——投入今秋的大选。而在其他所有地方，候选人不是假借过去之名，就是打着未来的旗号。

Selling the past is an age-old political strategy. Even in ancient Greece, radicals routinely promised a return to a golden age, the classicist Mary Beard writes in The Times Literary Supplement. Nostalgic nationalism always distorts history, but its appeal is visceral: we adults yearn to rewind the gruesome ageing process and go back in time. Nostalgic nationalism is also appealingly optimistic. Contrary to what pundits said, Trump’s campaign never lapsed into pessimism. He claimed that the present sucked but guaranteed a painless return to the good old days.

推销往昔是一种古老的政治策略。古典学者玛丽•比尔德(Mary Beard)在《泰晤士报文学增刊》(The Times Literary Supplement)上写道，即便在古希腊，激进分子也经常许诺带领民众回到昔日的黄金时代。怀旧民族主义总是歪曲历史，但其吸引力源自人的本能：我们成年人渴望逆转令人厌恶的衰老过程，回到过去的时光。怀旧民族主义也散发出一种诱人的乐观情绪。与评论人士所言相反，特朗普的竞选活动从未陷入悲观。他宣称当下糟糕透了，但他可以保证轻松回到昔日的美好时光。

Selling the past works best in the UK. Brits have an almost uniquely uncomplicated relationship with their own history, having had no revolution, civil war, dictatorship or invasion since 1688. Whereas the US had slavery at home, Brits performed their colonial atrocities far from domestic sight. Britons over 65 were raised on schoolbooks, comics and films about imperial conquest and Hitler’s Blitz; 64 per cent of them backed Brexit.

“推销过去”在英国效果最好。英国人与本国历史之间有一种近乎绝无仅有的简单关系，自1688年以来英国没有发生过革命、内战、独裁或入侵。美国国内曾实行奴隶制，而英国人在远离国内视线的地方进行残暴的殖民统治。65岁以上的英国人是在描绘帝国征服和希特勒(Hitler)闪电战的教科书、漫画和电影的影响下长大的;他们中64%的人支持退欧。

But nostalgic nationalism suits France almost as well. There, as in Britain, the present often shrinks to the size of a pinhead. Most French political discourse revolves around a superior past. There’s the lost superpower status. There’s the semi-mythical figure of the small farmer. There’s the obsession with the trente glorieuses, the 30 supposedly glorious years of economic recovery from 1945. In short, the Front National’s declinist view of France has become the non-partisan standard. Now Marine Le Pen wants to bring back the French franc, while her opponents talk about “preserving” the Republic from her.

但怀旧民族主义几乎同样适用于法国。就像在英国一样，在当今的法国，当下经常小到不值一提。法国政治话语大部分围绕这个国家辉煌的过去：已经失去的超级大国地位;近乎神话般的小农户人物形象;对“黄金三十年”(Les Trente Glorieuses)——始于1945年的所谓30年辉煌的经济复苏——的念念不忘。简单地说，国民阵线(Front National)关于法国衰落的观点已成为超党派的标准。如今，马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)希望恢复法国法郎，而她的对手们谈论着要从她手里“保住”法兰西共和国。

In France, the past’s superiority is written into the political landscape. Because French leaders work in ancient Parisian palaces, they appear dwarfed by past titans. The problem afflicts all old European capitals. When Matteo Renzi worked in Florence’s Palazzo Medici as president of the province, he’d joke with tourists in his basic English: “Five hundred years ago, Lorenzo de’ Medici. Today, Matteo Renzi. This is the decadence of Florence!”

在法国，昔日的优越性已被写入政治地景。因为法国领导人在巴黎的古老宫殿里办公，与过去的政治巨人相比，他们显得相形见绌。这一问题困扰着欧洲所有的古都。当担任佛罗伦萨省省长的马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)在佛罗伦萨的美第奇-里卡迪宫(Palazzo Medici Riccardi)办公时，他曾用简单的英语对游客开玩笑称：“500年前，(站在这里的是)洛伦佐•德•麦第奇(Lorenzo de' Medici)。如今，(站在这里的是)马泰奥•伦齐。这就是佛罗伦萨的堕落啊!”

But when Renzi decided to take over Italy, he presented himself as a futurist, recounts Giuliano da Empoli in his French biography Le Florentin. As Macron will know, this entails following a fixed set of rules.

但是，根据朱里亚诺•达恩波利(Giuliano da Empoli)在其法文传记《佛罗伦萨人》(Le Florentin)中的描述，但当伦齐决定角逐意大利总理职务时，他把自己包装成一名未来主义者。正如马克龙将会明白的，这意味着必须遵循一套固定的规则。

First, because a successful politician embodies his own message, a futurist has to be young. Renzi became Italy’s youngest leader ever in 2014, just as his futurist role model Tony Blair was Britain’s youngest prime minister since 1812, and 39-year-old Macron would be France’s youngest leader since Napoleon. In an era when any political experience is considered disqualifying, young candidates emphasise their youth. Renzi, writes da Empoli, wore sneakers and jeans to meetings, poured an ice bucket over himself on TV, and always went by “Matteo” — a throwback to Blair’s famous first words to his cabinet: “Just call me Tony.”

首先，因为一个成功的政治人物要成为自己传递的信息的化身，所以，一个未来主义者必须年轻。2014年，伦齐成为意大利历史上最年轻的领导人，正如其未来主义者榜样托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)是1812年以来英国最年轻的首相，而39岁的马克龙如果当选将成为自拿破仑(Napoleon)以来法国最年轻的领导人。在一个政治经验被视为有损任职资格的年代，年轻的候选人强调自己的年轻。达恩波利写道，伦齐穿着运动鞋、牛仔裤去开会，在电视上进行冰桶挑战，并且总喜欢被称为“马泰奥(Matteo)”——这让人联想起布莱尔对英国内阁的那句著名开场白：“叫我托尼就行(Just call me Tony)。”

Second, the futurist runs against the past, starting with his own party. Blair, who saw history as a boring repository of failed policies, denigrated his party as “Old Labour”. Macron has started a whole new “movement” with the quintessentially futurist name En Marche! (On the march!). He has also dissed the national past by urging France to apologise for colonial crimes in Algeria.

第二，未来主义者与过去进行角力，首先是不客气对待其所在政党。把历史视为枯燥的失败政策存档室的布莱尔，将自己所在的政党贬称为“老工党(Old Labour)”。马克龙发起了一场全新的“运动”，并为之取了一个典型的未来派名字“En Marche!(前进!)”。他还通过敦促法国向在阿尔及利亚犯下的殖民罪行道歉来鞭笞这个国家的历史。

Third, the futurist must present himself as an enemy of the status quo, and therefore the main protagonist of the election. This is a prized title, a dynamic role. Hillary Clinton handed it to Trump. In France, Le Pen assumed she would get the title part, but Macron wants it for himself. You know you’re the main protagonist when other candidates start attacking you as a danger to the country. Last, of course, the futurist offers a glorious future. The model here is John F Kennedy’s promise in 1961 to put a man on the moon.

第三，未来主义者必须把自己包装为现状的敌人，这样才能成为大选的主角。这是一个宝贵的头衔，一个充满活力的角色。希拉里将它拱手让给了特朗普。在法国，勒庞自以为可以得到这一头衔，但马克龙也想为自己争取。当其他候选人开始抨击你给国家带来危险时，你就知道自己成了主角。当然，最后，未来主义者要展现一个辉煌的未来。这方面的楷模是1961年承诺将人类送上月球的约翰•F•肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)。

Younger people vote less than oldies, but the target market for futurists expands every year. If you’re French or British and aged under 50, you probably aren’t a political nostalgic. The second world war, empire and even the trente glorieuses seem like ancient history. You believe you live in just another ordinary midsized country.

虽然年轻人投票不如老年人积极，但未来主义者的目标市场每年都在扩大。如果你是不到50岁的法国人或英国人，你多半不会是一个政治怀旧主义者。二战、帝国，甚至“黄金三十年”看起来像古代史。你相信自己只是生活在又一个中等规模的普通国家。

Macron hopes France’s presidential run-off will pit future against past. Twenty years to the week that Blair entered Downing Street on a beautiful futurist May dawn, Macron could walk into the Elysée. That instant, he downgrades from future to present.

马克龙希望法国总统大选的最终对决是一场未来与过去的对抗。20年前，在五月一个属于未来主义者的美丽清晨，布莱尔步入了唐宁街(Downing Street)，今天的马克龙也可以踏入爱丽舍宫(Elysée)。在那一刻，他的专注点将从未来回到当下。