外国游客减少，纽约人责怪特朗普

For the first time in seven years, New York City officials expect the number of foreign visitors to decrease, a drop they attribute to the protectionist policies and rhetoric of President Trump — saying that those moves are scaring off many of the visitors who have helped fuel the city’s robust growth since the last recession.

七年来的头一遭，纽约市官员预计到访的外国游客人数将会减少。他们将下滑归咎于特朗普的保护主义政策和措辞，声称这些举动吓跑了很多游客，自从上次衰退以来，这些游客对纽约经济的强劲增长起到了推动作用。

On Tuesday, the city’s tourism marketing agency, NYC & Company, plans to announce that its forecast for international visitors has turned from positive to negative since Mr. Trump was elected in November. The city now expects to draw 300,000 fewer foreigners this year than in 2016, when 12.7 million international visitors came, a decline that will cost businesses in the city that cater to tourists at least $600 million in sales, the agency estimates.

周二，纽约市旅游营销机构NYC&Company计划宣布，自从特朗普11月当选以来，他们对国际游客的增长率预测由正值变为了负值。该机构估计，今年到该市旅游的外国人将比2016年的1270万人减少30万，这种下滑将导致该城旅游企业的销售额至少减少6亿美元。

Fred Dixon, the chief executive of NYC & Company, said Mr. Trump’s statements and actions had changed perceptions about the hospitality of the United States just as prospective tourists are making vacation plans for 2017. “The Europeans start coming to New York around Easter and continue through summer,” Mr. Dixon said in an interview. “That’s when you’ll see the rhetoric out of Washington really having an impact on travel.”

NYC& Company的首席执行官弗雷德·迪克森(Fred Dixon)说，就在潜在游客为2017年的假期做规划的时候，特朗普的言行改变了人们对美国热情好客的看法。“欧洲人在复活节前后开始前往纽约旅游，这个趋势会持续整个夏天，”迪克森先生在接受采访时说。“到时候你就会看到华盛顿的言论对旅行的影响了。”

He said American tourism promoters were “just sort of holding our breath” in anticipation of a revision of Mr. Trump’s aborted plan to ban arrivals from seven mostly Muslim countries. “Regardless of the specifics, it’s pretty clear the message is going to be unwelcoming,”

Mr. Dixon said. 特朗普禁止来自七个以穆斯林为主的国家的人入境的计划之前流产了，迪克森说，美国旅游业推动者“好像是在屏住呼吸”，等着特朗普颁布这个禁令的修订版。“无论具体细节如何，这个信息都不会受到欢迎，这一点很清楚，”他说道。

News reports about that plan, which could be released on Wednesday, could further dampen interest in visiting New York City, which is the most popular American destination for foreign tourists, Mr. Dixon said.

该计划可能会在周三公布，相关新闻报道可能会进一步打击游客前往纽约市的积极性——纽约是外国游客最喜欢的美国旅游目的地，迪克森说道。

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

白宫没有立即回应时报的置评请求。

The rest of the country is expected to see an even larger decline in foreign tourism over the next two years, said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, an international firm that forecasts travel trends for several cities in the United States, including New York. He said the annual number of foreign visitors to the United States could fall by 6.3 million between 2016 and 2018 because of reactions to Mr. Trump’s words and actions, such as pledges to pull out of international trade agreements.

为包括纽约在内的几个美国城市进行旅行趋势预测的国际公司——旅游经济(Tourism Economics)的总裁亚当·萨克斯(Adam Sacks)表示，在接下来的两年里，美国其他地方的外国游客规模甚至会出现更大的降幅。他表示，在特朗普承诺退出国际贸易协议之类的言行影响下，美国的外国游客数量在2016年至2018年间每年可能会减少630万人。

“We’re going to be looking at a very challenging year for U.S. travel,” Mr. Sacks said.

“我们将面临对美国旅游业非常具挑战性的一年，”萨克斯说。

He said indicators of interest in visiting the United States, including online searches for airline tickets and hotels, started dropping after the election. They dipped again after Mr. Trump’s inauguration and fell further after he signed an executive order on the travel ban, Mr. Sacks said.

他表示，包括上网搜索机票和酒店信息在内的赴美旅游意愿指标，在总统大选后都开始下滑。萨克斯还提到，这些指标在特朗普宣誓就职后再次下滑，在他签署有关旅行禁令的政令后，更是进一步下跌。

“The data are all showing a pretty dramatic shift in behavior and interest,” he said. “That certainly accelerated since the executive order.”

“所有数据都在显示，人们的行为和兴趣出现了剧烈的转变，”他说。“在那条政令出来之后，这种转变无疑加快了。”

Mr. Sacks said his firm had a “solid track record” of forecasting tourism, but he added that there was less certainty in estimating what he called “Trump impacts.”

萨克斯称他的公司在预测旅游业趋势方面有“相当不错的表现记录”，但他也表示，在评估他所说的“特朗普效应”方面，把握相对较小。

ForwardKeys, a Spanish company that tracks travel, said that it saw an “immediate slump” in bookings of flights to the United States after the travel ban was announced, including a 13.6 percent drop in Western Europe.

追踪旅游信息的西班牙公司ForwardKeys表示，在旅行禁令宣布之后，预定美国机票的人数“骤降”，其中西欧地区下降了13.6%。

To combat the perception of a less hospitable climate, NYC & Company plans to start replacing some of its advertising overseas with billboards that declare that the city is “Welcoming the World.” Mr. Dixon said the city was “doubling down on our welcome message.”

为改变将出现更加不好客环境的看法，NYC & Company计划开始更换它在海外的一些广告，换成宣称这个城市“欢迎四海游客”的广告牌。迪克森表示，纽约在“双倍加强我们的欢迎信息”。

Alicia Glen, the city’s deputy mayor for housing and economic development, said it was not New York City’s style to turn people away.

负责住房与经济发展事务的副市长艾丽西亚·格伦(Alicia Glen)表示，将人们拒之门外不是纽约城的风格。

“We’re a place that welcomes everybody,” Ms. Glen said. “It’s in our values and in our economic interest. We’ll keep reminding visitors what we stand for, so we can keep this both the most internationally visited and the safest city in America.”

“我们是一个欢迎所有人的地方，”格伦说。“这是我们的价值观，也是我们的经济利益所在。我们会持续提醒游客注意我们的立场，这样才能让这里继续成为美国国际游客最多、最安全的城市。”

New York still expects a slight increase in tourism this year, but only because of an increase in domestic visitors, Mr. Dixon said. NYC & Company forecasts that the city will attract 61.7 million visitors, up from 60.7 million in 2016, with an increase of 1.3 million domestic visitors offsetting the decline of foreign travelers.

迪克森表示，纽约今年的游客人数依然有可能出现小幅上涨，但这是因为国内游客数量的增加。NYC & Company预计，相比于2016年的6070万，纽约2017年将吸引6170万国内外游客，新增的130万国内游客将抵消国外游客的减少。

Before Mr. Trump’s election, the city had been expecting an increase of 400,000 foreign visitors in 2017, Mr. Dixon said. That swing will be very costly to the city’s economy, he said, because foreign tourists stay longer and spend more freely than domestic tourists. On average, foreigners spend about $2,000 in the city, compared with about $500 for Americans.

迪克森表示，在特朗普当选之前，这个城市预计在2017年将增加40万国外游客。他表示，这种变化对该城的经济而言代价惨重，因为外国游客比国内游客的停留时间更长，花钱更大方。外国游客在这个城市的平均消费是2000美元，相比之下美国游客为500美元。

“We were looking forward to a really strong 2017,” Mr. Dixon said. “Travel is a very precious commodity and people have choices. Once the vacation of 2017 is gone, you don’t get that back.”

“我们原本期待一个表现强劲的2017，”迪克森说。“旅游是一种非常昂贵的商品，人们的选择很多。一旦2017年假期过去，就再也回不来了。”