韩国女性平均寿命可能率先超过90岁

Life spans in the world’s wealthiest countries will continue to increase in the future, and women in South Korea may be the first to live longer than 90 years on average, a new study has found.

一项新研究发现，世界上最富有国家居民的寿命将会继续延长，韩国妇女的平均寿命可能最先超过90岁。

The study — a mathematical model blending 21 other forecasts and published in The Lancet — gave South Korean women born in 2030 a 57 percent chance of hitting the over-90 longevity mark. The surest bet was that they would exceed age 86 on average.

这项研究是一个包含其他21项预测的数学模型，发表在《柳叶刀》杂志(The Lancet)上。该研究预测，2030年出生于韩国的女性有57%可能活过90岁。最确定的预测是她们的平均寿命会超过86岁。

Compared with women from 34 other industrialized nations the study assessed, South Korean women generally smoke less, weigh less, have lower blood pressure and see doctors more often because most have health insurance.

与该研究评估的其他34个工业化国家的女性相比，韩国女性总体来说吸烟较少，体重较轻，血压较低，更常看医生——因为大部分人都有医疗保险。

Women in France, Japan and Spain also were expected to live longer. Currently Japanese women live the longest, but their progress will probably stagnate, the study said.

法国、日本和西班牙的女性也有望活得更久。目前，日本女性寿命最长，但该研究认为，她们的进步很可能会停滞。

South Korea also led the list for longevity in men, followed by Australia, Switzerland, Canada and the Netherlands; men from all of those countries were expected to live beyond 80 on average.

韩国男性也位于长寿名单的榜首，其次是澳大利亚、瑞士、加拿大和荷兰。这些国家男性的平均寿命都有望超过80岁。

The United States, as usual, fared badly. American men and women are in 23rd and 27th place, respectively, in terms of life expectancy, and they were expected to fall farther as other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, improve.

美国的情况像往常一样糟糕。美国的男性和女性分别在预期寿命榜单上名列第23位和第27位。随着其他国家，尤其是东欧国家的改善，美国的名次有可能进一步下降。

Although the United States has advanced medicine, it has an obesity epidemic, little focus on preventive care, relatively high mortality among babies of uninsured mothers, and high male death rates from gunshot wounds and car accidents.

美国虽然医学先进，但居民普遍肥胖，很少关注预防保健，无保险母亲的婴儿死亡率较高，男性死于枪伤和车祸的几率较高。

American men live on average about as long as men in Slovenia and Portugal, and average longevity in other countries, including South Korea, the Czech Republic and Hungary, is improving faster.

美国男性的平均寿命与斯洛文尼亚和葡萄牙的男性相当，而韩国、捷克共和国和匈牙利等国的男性平均寿命正在更快地提升。

The model assumes that current trends will continue. History often invalidates that assumption, however, because health is tied to political events.

该模型假设当前的趋势会继续。然而，历史往往会推翻这种假设，因为健康与政治事件关系很大。

Longevity in Africa rose rapidly in the 1950s and ’60s with the spread of antibiotics and vaccines, flattened as the collapse of colonialism bankrupted health care systems, plummeted in the 1990s with the spread of AIDS, and is now rising again as donors pay for AIDS drugs.

在20世纪五六十年代，非洲人的寿命由于抗生素和疫苗的普及而迅速增长，而随着殖民主义的瓦解，医疗保健系统出现崩溃，这种增长逐渐放平。在20世纪90年代，随着艾滋病的蔓延，平均寿命大幅下跌，现在又由于捐助者支付艾滋病药物而有所回升。

Among wealthier nations, progress in Eastern Europe followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. South Korea’s projected gains would most likely be seriously compromised if the current tensions with North Korea were to lead to war.

在更富裕的国家里，随着苏联的瓦解，东欧取得了进步。如果目前与朝鲜的紧张局势导致战争，韩国的预期增长很可能会受到严重影响。