特朗普的“治国准则”
谁也不能说没有听到过警告。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)承诺过要颁发穆斯林签证禁令、在贸易事务上奉行“美国优先”、提名保守派人士担任美国最高法院(Supreme Court)的法官。他眼下就在这么做。他还说过，要“消灭伊斯兰国(ISIS)”，在美国与墨西哥的边境上修筑一道墙。预计在不远的将来他就会宣布这些政策了。当然还有大规模减税和全面去监管化方面的政策。你所见到的，就是你所得到的。
Though he may never have read one, Mr Trump has always been an open book. If you want to prepare for the next four years, you should internalise the Trump manual.
特朗普也许从不看书，但他自己始终就像是一本“打开的书”，让人易于看透。如果你想要为今后四年做好准备，就应该把这本“特朗普手册”烂熟于心。
The master key is Mr Trump’s management philosophy. Now in his eighth decade, Mr Trump is not about to change how he does business. His first rule is never admit to a mistake. Mr Trump will dig his heels in rather than apologise. Even casual errors will accidentally become formal policy. It is unclear, for example, whether Mr Trump deliberately avoided mentioning Jews in his statement on Holocaust Memorial day. Yet he is now committed to not mentioning them.
其中最为关键的是特朗普的管理哲学。已跨入人生第8个十年的特朗普并不打算改变他的行事作风。他的第一条准则是绝不承认错误。特朗普将固执己见，而不会道歉。即使是不经意间犯下的错误，也会意外地成为正式的政策。比如说，特朗普就大屠杀纪念日(Holocaust Memorial day)发表的声明中没有提犹太人，不知道他是否有意为之，但现在他已决心不提他们了。
Making Mexico pay for the border wall may have been a campaign throwaway line. Ensuring it does is now the chief goal of US-Mexico relations. It left Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president, with little choice but to cancel his Washington trip last week.
让墨西哥为边境隔离墙掏腰包也许只是竞选期间随口说的一句话，但现在确保墨西哥会掏钱已成了美墨关系中的首要目标。为此，墨西哥总统恩里克•培尼亚•涅托(Enrique Peña Nieto)上周只好取消了华盛顿之行。
For Mr Trump, the costs of sticking to a bad policy will almost always be lower than admitting to error.
对特朗普来说，坚持一项坏的政策所需付出的代价，几乎总是低于承认错误的代价。
The second rule is make critics pay. If you cross Mr Trump he will hit back 10 times harder. Since he now occupies the most important bully pulpit in the world, this has consequences — as US government employees are finding out. Last week Mr Trump fired Sally Yates, the acting attorney-general, for declining to argue in court for Mr Trump’s badly drafted temporary ban on issuing visas to citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries. He accused her of betrayal rather than a professional difference of opinion.
特朗普的第二条行事准则是让批评者付出代价。如果你反对特朗普，他将以十倍的力度回击。由于他如今占据着全世界最重要的“天字第一号讲坛”(bully pulpit，指白宫——译者注)，这条准则是会造成后果的——正如美国政府雇员们所看到的。上周，特朗普解雇了代理司法部长萨丽•耶茨(Sally Yates)，原因是她拒绝在法庭上为特朗普下达的禁止向七个穆斯林国家的公民颁发签证这条糟糕的临时禁令辩护。他指责耶茨背叛，而不是指责她在专业上有不同意见。
Mr Trump’s spokesman called on US diplomats to resign rather than register their differences through the State Department’s longstanding “dissent channel”. Pointing out a policy’s weakness is a key duty in any serious government job. Mr Trump has made it clear that he wants cheerleaders not critics.
特朗普的发言人呼吁美国外交官们辞职，而不是通过美国国务院(State Department)长期存在的“异见渠道”记录下他们的异议。在任何严肃的政府工作岗位上，指出政策弱点都是一项关键职责。而特朗普已明确表明，他想要的是啦啦队长而不是批评者。
Foreign leaders, including Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, should be wary. Mr Trump will not hesitate to escalate when challenged. His administration has already singled out Germany for alleged currency manipulation and lambasted Ms Merkel’s decision to take in Syrian refugees. Ms Merkel is rightly treading with great care.
包括德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)在内的外国领导人都应该警惕起来。特朗普一旦受到挑战，就会毫不犹豫地让事态升级。他的政府已经把德国列为涉嫌操纵汇率的国家，还猛烈抨击默克尔接收叙利亚难民的决定。默克尔目前正在极为小心地予以应对，她这么做是对的。
Businesses should also beware. Barely 20 minutes after Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing’s chief executive, defended free trade with China, Mr Trump threatened to cancel the deal to build a new Air Force One. Those banking on the US constitution to constrain the president should make a Plan B.
商界也应该小心。波音(Boeing)首席执行官丹尼斯•米伦伯格(Dennis Muilenburg)为与中国的自由贸易辩护，20分钟后，特朗普就威胁要取消制造一架新的“空军一号”(Air Force One)飞机的协议。有些人指望依靠美国宪法来限制总统的权力，他们应该制定一项B计划了。
Mr Trump has made clear he shares Richard Nixon’s view that the president can pick and choose which laws apply to him. From tax audits to eavesdropping, the retaliatory means at Mr Trump’s disposal are vast. The value of whistleblowers has rarely been higher.
特朗普明确表明，他与理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)观点一致，认为总统可以挑选适用于他的法律。从税务稽查到窃听，特朗普可以使用多种多样的报复手段。告密者很少这么有用过。
The third rule is do whatever it takes to promote the brand. If that means bending reality, or coming up with an alternative one, so be it. What works for the Trump business franchise has vastly greater implications as commander-in-chief. The day after Mr Trump’s inauguration, he told CIA employees that it had stopped raining the moment he began speaking. The meteorologists did not agree.
第三条准则是，无所不用其极地推广自己那张招牌。如果这意味着要歪曲事实，或者提出一个“替代版”事实，那就这么做。在特朗普商业经营中起作用的手段，在他作为美国三军总司令时影响会大得多。特朗普就职仪式的第二天，他告诉美国中央情报局(CIA)的工作人员，雨在他开口讲话的那一刻停了。气象学家们可不同意这一点。
He also personally called the head of the National Parks Service to instruct him to delete a tweet showing unfavourable side-by-side photos of the thin crowds at his inauguration versus the overflow at Barack Obama’s. It was duly taken down.
他还亲自给美国国家公园管理局(National Parks Service)负责人打电话，指示他删除Twitter上的一条帖子，帖子中并排显示两张形成强烈反差的照片——特朗普就职仪式参加者稀稀拉拉，而巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的就职仪式则人满为患。对方依言而行。
These are relatively minor issues. But how will Mr Trump react when government scientists issue their next report on global warming? What will he do when the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces a rise in unemployment? We have yet to digest the enormity of Mr Trump’s waywardness with facts. They say the first casualty of war is the truth. In an age of cyber war, truth is a primary target. When your enemy’s objective is to sow confusion, it is doubly important America’s president has sufficient credibility to refute lies. It is a national security imperative.
这些相对而言是小事。但在政府科学家发布下一份全球变暖报告时，特朗普会作何反应?如果美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)公布失业率上升，他会怎么做?我们还没有完全理解特朗普肆意歪曲事实这种行为的严重性。人们说，战争的头号牺牲者是事实真相。在网络战争的时代，真相是主要攻击目标。当敌人的目标是散播混乱信息时，美国总统是否拥有足够的可信度来反驳谎言显得倍加重要。这是国家安全方面的头等大事。
Mr Trump is as likely to be a source of wild propaganda as a check on it. Look at his verdict on the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton won almost 3m more votes than Mr Trump. He continues to insist the election was hijacked with between 3m and 5m rigged votes.It is hard to come up with a bigger “alternative fact” than that.
特朗普宣传毫无依据的消息的可能性，与他制止这类消息流传的可能性一样大。看看他对2016年美国大选的说法吧。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的普选票比特朗普多了近300万张。特朗普一直坚称选举存在舞弊，有300万到500万张选票受到了操纵。很难提出一个比这还重磅的“替代事实”。
Which brings us to the final rule: pride trumps all else. Because he lost the popular vote, the president cannot shed that nagging urge to counter doubts about the legitimacy of his victory. Liberals can always be relied on to stoke it. The temptation to allege corruption where it does not exist, or to claim the system is rigged, will always haunt Mr Trump. He will thus continually be drawn into casting doubt on the rule of law in the country he leads.
这就说到了特朗普的最后一条行事准则：骄傲胜于一切。因为特朗普在普选票上落于下风，他始终无法摆脱一种冲动，总想驳斥对他胜选的合法性的质疑。自由主义者总能激起这种冲动。无中生有地宣称存在腐败、声称体制遭到操纵的诱惑将一直困扰特朗普。因此他将不断地做出引导人们怀疑他所领导国家的法治的行为。
Those who wish to damage America’s standing need not lift a finger. Mr Trump is doing it for them. As Napoleon said: “Never interfere with your enemy while he is making a mistake.”
那些想要削弱美国声望的人不必动一根手指。特朗普正代为行之。就像拿破仑(Napoleon)说的：“在你的敌人犯错误的时候，决不要干涉他。”
