奥巴马能否跻身改变美国的十大总统之列？
10年前，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)已经在考虑自己作为美国总统的政治遗产了。我知道这一点，因为在2006年，在为如今已不存在的一份男性杂志所作的长篇采访中，我与他谈过此事。当时这位44岁的新当选参议员刚写完他的第二本书，他没穿西装外套，领带松着。他带着深思的神情谈起了自己的政治抱负。
“My attitude about something like the presidency is that you don’t want to just be the president,” he told me. “You want to change the country. You want to make a unique contribution. You want to be a great president.”
“我对总统任期之类的态度是，你不想仅仅当个总统，”他告诉我， “你想改变这个国家。你想做出独特的贡献。你想成为一个伟大的总统。”
Mr Obama described visiting the Washington Hilton and walking down a long corridor decorated with pictures of all America’s presidents. “You go through, and you think, who are these guys? There are, what, maybe 10 presidents in our history out of 40-something who you can truly say led the country? And then there are 30 who just kind of did their best. And so, I guess my point is, just being the president is not a good way of thinking about it.”
奥巴马描述了他访问华盛顿希尔顿酒店(Washington Hilton)，漫步挂着美国历任总统画像的长走廊时的感受。“你走过这些画像，心里会想，这些家伙是谁?在我国历史上的40多位总统中，也许有10位你真正可以说领导了这个国家?另外30位总统只能说是尽了力。所以，我想我要说的关键是，仅仅当个总统并不是思考这一点的好方法。”
In his final days in office, I’ve been remembering the bar Mr Obama set for himself that summer afternoon and wondering whether he feels that he cleared it. Should Mr Obama be remembered as a top 10 president, one who changed the country? Or as one of the perhaps admirable but not-quite transformational others?
在他的总统任期进入尾声之际，我一直记得奥巴马在那个夏天的下午为自己设定的标杆，并且揣测他是否觉得自己跃过了这根标杆。奥巴马应该被铭记为改变了国家的10位伟大总统之一吗?或者是也许令人钦佩、但算不上改变了国家的其他总统之一?
During his race against Hillary Clinton in 2008, Mr Obama articulated the same distinction in a way certain to annoy her by saying that “Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that, you know, Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not.” Mr Obama aspired to be a liberal Reagan who would not just change policy but embody the emergence of a diverse and progressive society.
在2008年对阵希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的初选中，奥巴马以一种肯定会惹恼她的方式说出了相同区别：“罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)改变了美国的轨迹，你知道，理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)和比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)都没有做到里根那样。”奥巴马渴望成为一个自由派里根，不仅改变政策，而且打造一个多元化和进步的社会。
The political journalist Jonathan Chait’s new book Audacity , hastily updated for Donald Trump’s unforeseen victory, makes the case that Mr Obama’s substantive accomplishments are both momentous and likely to survive the authoritarian circus now arrived in town. Mr Chait points to the president’s handling of the 2008 financial crisis, the passage of the Affordable Care Act, the Paris Agreement on greenhouse gas reduction, as well as less heralded changes in education, financial regulation and economic distribution.
政治记者乔纳森•柴特(Jonathan Chait)的新书《无畏》(Audacity)——该书根据唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的意外胜选进行了仓促更新——主张，奥巴马的实质性成就不仅是重大的，而且很可能不会被即将在华盛顿走马上任的威权马戏团抹杀。柴特提到了奥巴马对2008年金融危机的应对、《平价医疗法》(Affordable Care Act)的通过、旨在减少温室气体排放的《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement)，以及在教育、金融监管和经济分配方面宣传较少的变革。
Mr Chait’s case about the significance of Mr Obama’s achievements is more persuasive than his prediction about their durability. After a votes in Congress, Obamacare faces blunt repeal. During the campaign, Mr Obama said that if Mr Trump were to be elected, eight years of accomplishment would go out the window. Afterwards, Mr Obama put it rather differently, telling David Remnick of The New Yorker that he had done “70 or 75 per cent” of what he intended. “Maybe 15 per cent of that gets rolled back, 20 per cent, but there’s still a lot of stuff that sticks.”
柴特对于奥巴马成就的重大性的论述，比他对于这些成就的延续时间的预测更令人信服。在国会投票后，“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)面临无情的废止。在竞选期间，奥巴马表示，倘若特朗普当选，8年的成就将毁于一旦。大选后，奥巴马改变了说法，他告诉《纽约客》(New Yorker)的大卫•雷姆尼克(David Remnick)，他完成了自己心愿的“70%或75%”。“或许其中有15%会被逆转，或许是20%，但仍有很大一部分会留下来。”
Alas, the earlier warning looks more accurate. But whether universal health insurance survives in some form, the larger question is the one Mr Obama pointed to in his comments contrasting Mr Reagan with Mr Clinton. “Reagan put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it,” he said.
可惜，早先的那个警告看来更准确。但是，无论全民医疗保险能否以某种形式留下来，更大的问题是奥巴马曾经提到的将里根同克林顿进行对比的问题。“里根把我们带上了一条在根本上不同的道路，因为那时国家准备好了这么做，”他说。
To count as transformative, a president needs to synthesise the moment and mood of the country. Where Mr Reagan channelled disenchantment with overweening government, Mr Obama symbolised America’s transformation into a multiracial country.
要算得上改变了国家，一名总统需要让时代和民意产生共振。里根疏导了民众对“管得太多”的政府的幻灭感，奥巴马则象征着美国转型为一个多种族国家。
That demographic change is inevitable, but Mr Obama was a precocious avatar. America remains 62 per cent white; not until mid-century will minorities become the majority. As Mr Chait persuasively argues, the headwinds Mr Obama faced were mostly racial blowback. In many cases, Republican politicians and white voters abandoned policies they had long supported once they were endorsed by an African-American president.
人口结构的变化是不可避免的，但奥巴马是一个超前于时代的化身。美国仍有62%的人口为白人;直到本世纪中叶，少数族裔才会变成多数族裔。正如柴特令人信服地主张的，奥巴马面临的逆风主要是种族反弹。在许多情况下，相关政策原本长期得到共和党政客和白人选民的支持，但一旦这些政策获得了一位非裔美国总统的支持，他们就放弃了这些政策。
Given the racially-tinged opposition he faced, it’s hard to make the case that Mr Obama could have accomplished more either by being tougher or more gentle. Yet for someone who saw himself as a political bridge, the inability to produce any durable consensus must count as a tremendous disappointment. His faith in transcending partisanship, in the face of all evidence, stands as both inspirational and somewhat naive. Mr Obama called his pre-presidential book, published in 2006, The Audacity of Hope. His post-presidential one might be titled The Triumph of Hope Over Experience.
鉴于他面对的带有种族色彩的反对，奥巴马如果更强势或者更温和就可能取得更大成就的说法，是很难站得住脚的。不过，对于把自己视为一座政治桥梁的人来说，无法产生任何持久共识必定是一个极大的失望。面对所有证据，他对于超越党派界线的信念既令人鼓舞，又或多或少显得幼稚。奥巴马把自己在当选总统之前、出版于2006年的书起名为《无畏的希望》(The Audacity of Hope)。他卸任总统之后再写书的话，书名或许会是《希望战胜经验》(The Triumph of Hope Over Experience)。
Ten years ago, Mr Obama told me that establishing universal healthcare should be his party’s highest priority and that he worried about the lack of economic opportunity as a factor in driving racial polarisation.
10年前，奥巴马告诉我，建立全民医保制度应当成为民主党的最优先任务，同时他对缺少经济机遇成为推动种族分化的一个因素感到担心。
Listening to the farewell address he delivered in Chicago last week, I was struck by the remarkable consistency of his views and his approach. Despite the ways in which his worst fears have been borne out, he has remained rock-steady in his calm application of reason, his respect for opponents who have not respected him, and his methodical pursuit of common ground.
听了他最近在芝加哥发表的离职演讲后，我被他在观点和态度上的了不起的一致性打动。尽管他最糟糕的担忧以种种方式得到了证实，但他坚持冷静说理、尊重那些不尊重他的对手，并且有条不紊地寻找共同点。
Mr Obama’s absence of bitterness is remarkable. He leaves a legacy of integrity, eloquence, and patient commitment in a dark hour of American politics.
奥巴马没有流露出怨恨，这是引人注目的。他留下了一份正直、雄辩和在美国政治的黑暗时刻耐心坚持的政治遗产。
The writer is chairman of the Slate group and author of ‘Ronald Reagan’
本人作者为Slate集团董事长，著有《罗纳德•里根》(Ronald Reagan)一书
