“强人世界”的投资生存指南

So Brexit was not a historical accident after all. The Trump victory seals it. A complacent, mainly urban liberal class, has been undone by a revolt. Nationalists are in charge of Washington and London now. These “strongmen” and “strongwomen” will control borders, restrict the movement of labour and subject cross-border M&A to ever tighter public scrutiny tests. Security will come first. The twin freedoms of capital and labour movement are fading, secular relics from a passing liberal age.

到头来，英国退欧被证明不是一个历史意外。特朗普在美国大选中获胜提供了确凿证据。自满的、主要居住在城市的自由派阶层被一场暴动搞得措手不及。民族主义者如今控制着华盛顿和伦敦。这些“强人”和“女强人”将控制边境、限制劳工流动、让跨国收购接受更严苛的公共审查测试。安全将被列在第一位。资本流动自由和劳动力流动自由，成了正在落幕的自由派时代渐渐淡出的残留物。

For those of us who have been investing professionally for the past 30 years, this new creed feels alien. That, of course, is part of the message, and we have no choice but to adapt to it. The rules of the game are changing, and we have to change with it.

对于我们这些过去30年一直从事专业投资的人来说，这种新信条感觉十分陌生。当然，这种陌生感是时代信息的一部分，我们别无选择，只能适应。游戏规则正在改变，我们不得不与时俱进。

The tendency of “strongmen” to use the state apparatus to conjure up growth will set our new course. The tedium of recent years, slow but steady growth, looks set to be dislodged by the seductive alchemy of a fiscally induced boom-bust cycle beloved by populists.

“强人”利用国家机器拔高增长的倾向，将决定我们的新路线。最近几年的沉闷——缓慢但稳定的增长——似乎将被民粹主义所钟爱、基于财政刺激的盛衰周期的诱人魔力赶走。

Supply-siders will happily urge us to believe it will be all self-funding, while an explosion in fiscal indebtedness looks the most immediate outcome of Trump economics. Spending on infrastructure, defence, with cuts in corporate and personal income tax, without any corresponding cuts in entitlements, will make everyone feel good for a while, apart from bond investors. Trump has rarely had much time for them anyway.

供给学派政策的倡导者将拍拍胸脯让我们放心：这一切将完全可持续，而与此同时财政负担出现爆炸性增长看起来将是特朗普经济学的最直接后果。在基础设施和国防上增加开支、同时削减企业和个人所得税，而又不相应削减福利，这将使除债券投资者以外的所有人暂时感觉良好。特朗普向来没把债券投资者放在眼里。

So a US economic boom is almost certainly on its way. Tight labour markets can become tighter. Household incomes can hopefully start to grow again after years of stagnation.

因此，美国经济繁荣差不多肯定会降临。劳动力市场紧张可能会愈演愈烈。在经历了多年停滞后，家庭收入有望再次开始增长。

Markets can fret about wage inflation, but general price increases will be slower to respond. There is ample spare capacity in markets for traded goods and services in the US and elsewhere. Temporary dollar strength, salted with data-inspired Fed rate increases, will further temper the inflationary push.

市场可能会因为工资通胀而不安，但是整体价格上涨将以较慢步伐跟上。美国及其他地区的可贸易商品和服务市场有充足的富余产能。美元暂时走强、外加美联储(Fed)以经济数据为依据的加息行动，将进一步缓和通胀压力。

Trump’s promise of a free lunch will devour the savings glut that has suppressed real interest rates over the past two decades. Lunch can last longer than many will think. The repatriation of offshore US corporate balance sheets will help finance the good times. The recycling of corporate balance sheets towards households is well overdue.

特朗普承诺的免费午餐将吞噬过剩储蓄，过去20年过剩储蓄一直抑制着实际利率。午餐持续时间会超出很多人预期。海外美国企业资产负债表回归本土将为美好时光提供资金支持。企业资产负债表早就应该循环流入家庭负债表。

“Trump’s triumph” heralds the early verdict. Real interest rates will need to adjust to a new equilibrium, a sign of success. Equities, especially US equities, rally. Wall Street bankers do quite well under Trump’s anti-establishment banner.

“特朗普的胜利”预示着初步裁决。实际利率将需要适应一种新的平衡状态，这是成功迹象。股市、特别是美国股市，大涨。华尔街银行家在特朗普反建制的旗帜下日子过得相当滋润。

Meanwhile, the slow decay of the US fiscal position will take its time. It can await the company of an old friend: the trade deficit. The twin-deficit problem that troubled fiscal conservatives so in the 1980s can make its comeback.

与此同时，美国财政状态的缓慢恶化将需要很久才会变得明显。它可以期待一位老友的陪伴：贸易赤字。在上世纪80年代令财政保守派不安的双重赤字问题，可能会卷土重来。

Dr Henry Kaufman is poised for an Oscar-nominated return. Dr Doom, as he is fondly known, will remind us what this all ultimately means for interest rates and the dollar. The monthly trade data which once dominated the newswires, since usurped by the monthly employment report, can once again unnerve the dollar bulls.

亨利•考夫曼博士(Dr Henry Kaufman)势将像一个明星那样闪亮回归。被亲切称为“末日博士”(Dr Doom)的他将提醒我们，这一切最终对利率和美元意味着什么。曾经占据新闻头条的月度贸易数据(近年被月度就业报告取代)可能再次让看涨美元的人紧张。

Populism and strong currencies are rarely seen together for long.

民粹主义和强势货币很少会长时间共存。

The trade deficit will be blamed on others of course: currency manipulators, global outsourcing, the carry trade. Mexico, the first casualty of the new world order, is already feeling this pinch: its net exports to the US an irredeemable liability in a world unhinged from formal multilateral duties. The recent falls in its currency and stock market are ready reminders of what America First means, soon to be followed by “China First”, “Japan First”, “France First” and so on.

当然，贸易赤字的罪责将推给其他替罪羊：汇率操纵国、全球代工体系、套利交易。作为世界新秩序的首个受害者，墨西哥已经感受到压力：在脱离了正式多边关税协定的世界，墨西哥对美国的净出口成了没有可取之处的累赘。墨西哥最近的汇率下跌和股市走低提醒了人们“美国优先”意味着什么，之后还很快会出现“中国优先”，“日本优先”，“法国优先”等等。

And so the immediate outlook for risk assets is favourable. The market action of recent days is a reasonable assessment of what lies ahead. Fiscal policy will be highly stimulative, drawing down on the global savings glut, pushing up growth and real interest rates everywhere.

因此，风险资产的近期前景较为良好。最近几天的市场动态是对下一阶段局面的合理评估。财政政策将具有高度刺激性，拉低全球储蓄率，推高世界各地的增长率和实际利率。

It will feel good for a while, and then the financial strains will emerge, and Dr Doom can make his untimely entrance.

人们在短期内将会感觉良好，之后将出现金融紧张，“末日博士”可能会不合时宜地重返舞台。