特朗普能被政治精英驯服吗？

Remember when Donald Trump said, “I alone can fix it?” It turns out he will need help. Here is the good news. Mr Trump’s advisers are distancing the president-elect from some of his most outlandish promises — making Mexico pay for the border wall, for example. The reason: Mr Trump’s team is already dominated by the special interests whose same grip he promised to end. Having vowed a hostile takeover, the populist outsider is surrounding himself with insiders. Washington is rolling out the red carpet for Mr Trump. There is not a pitchfork in sight.

还记得唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)曾说过“我一个人就能搞定”吗?事实证明，他也需要帮助。现在有了好消息。特朗普的顾问们正在让这位候任总统远离他最荒诞的一些承诺——例如，让墨西哥为修建边境隔离墙负担费用。原因是特朗普的团队已经被特殊利益集团把持，而后者对政治的主宰正是他承诺要终结的。这位曾发誓进行敌意接管的、信奉民粹主义的局外人周围已全是局内人。华盛顿正在为特朗普展开红地毯。没人举着干草叉等他。

There are two dangers facing any populist who manages to get elected. The first is the impossibility of carrying out most of their promises. Mr Trump is a populist on stilts. He vowed to make America great again, “drain the swamp” of corruption, and resurrect the forgotten blue-collar American. He cannot satisfy such expectations. The second is that populist outsiders lack governing experience. They must therefore rely on those who do — people who can write laws, draw up regulations, issue executive orders and so on. These are the types who prefer things the way they are. Less than a week after his stunning victory, Mr Trump has already acknowledged both realities.

任何成功当选的民粹主义者都面临两大风险。首先，他们的大多数竞选承诺都不可能兑现。特朗普是一个言行夸张的民粹主义者。他誓言要让美国再次变得伟大，根除腐败，让被遗忘的蓝领美国工人重新崛起。他无法满足人们的这些期待。第二，信奉民粹主义的局外者缺乏执政经验。因此，他们必须依赖有执政经验的人士——能够起草法律、制定法规、发布行政命令等等的人。这些人都更倾向于循规蹈矩。取得令人震惊的胜利不到一周，特朗普就已承认了这两大现实。

Beware a populist mugged by reality. When the public realises their champion lacks magical powers, they suffer buyer’s remorse. At this point he must find methods of rekindling their support. In Mr Trump’s case, this would be a very worrisome prospect. For the time being, however, we are on phase one of the populist manual.

要当心一个被现实碾压的民粹主义者。当公众意识到自己拥护的得胜者没有魔力时，他们便会陷入“买家懊悔”(buyer’s remorse)之中。到那时，他必须找到能重新燃起他们的支持的方法。对特朗普而言，前景将非常令人担忧。然而，目前我们还处于民粹主义的第一阶段。

Mr Trump’s transition team will be run by Mike Pence, the vice-president-elect, and one of Washington’s most experienced operators. Mr Pence is already being seen as a powerful — even prime ministerial — deputy in the mould of Dick Cheney in George W Bush’s first term. He will oversee the roughly 4,000 jobs to be filled. Some of these appointees, such as Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson and possibly Sarah Palin, fit the Trumpian mindset. Most, however, will be experienced Washington hands.

特朗普的交接团队将由当选副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)带领，后者是华盛顿最有经验的“老司机”之一。彭斯早已被视为一位实权、甚至总理式的副总统，类似迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)在乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)第一任期的角色。他将负责填补约4000个岗位。其中一些被任命者，如鲁迪•朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)、本•卡森(Ben Carson)、或许还有萨拉•佩林(Sarah Palin)，符合特朗普式的思维。然而，大多数被任命者都将是华盛顿经验丰富的老手。

The seeds of Mr Trump’s backlash are already being sown. As a small government conservative, Mr Pence’s worldview sits uneasily with Mr Trump’s populist nationalism — as is true of most of the Republican Party in Congress.

特朗普遭遇反弹的种子早已播下。作为一个小政府保守主义者，彭斯的世界观与特朗普的民粹民族主义格格不入——国会中大多数共和党人士也是如此。

But their fiscal visions overlap. Mr Trump wants to sharply reduce income and corporate taxes. He also wants to abolish the inheritance tax, which only the wealthiest Americans pay. These are the likeliest pieces of his agenda to go through. They will only deepen the income inequality that helped sweep Mr Trump to power. So would repeal of Obamacare, which has brought 20m Americans into the insurance net — another goal on which Republicans and Mr Trump agree.

但是他们在财政方面的观点有相同之处。特朗普希望大幅削减所得税和企业税。他还想废除只有最富有的美国人才缴纳的遗产税。这些是他议程上最有可能推进的部分。但这样做只会加剧收入不均，而正是这种不均帮助特朗普登上了权力宝座。还有废除已将2000万美国人纳入了保险网络的“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)——这是共和党和特朗普的另一个一致目标。

It is too soon to know how each of these bills will be framed. But they will not do much for the “forgotten American”. Mr Trump’s tax cuts may stimulate growth. But they would greatly enrich the wealthiest Americans without providing much relief to others. Billionaires, such as Mr Trump, would be the biggest winners.

要知道这些法案将如何一一出台还为时尚早。但是它们不会为“被遗忘的美国人”带来多少好处。特朗普的减税计划或许能刺激经济增长。但这样做将大大增加最富有的美国人的财富，却无法为其他人提供多少救助。特朗普之类的亿万富翁将成为最大的赢家。

Then there are Mr Trump’s amorphous business interests. Here we are in uncharted territory. Mr Trump will put control of his empire under a “blind trust” that will be run by three of his children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Junior. There is patently nothing blind about this. All three have also taken leading positions on Mr Pence’s team that is busy staffing their father’s administration — the same one that will take regulatory, tax and enforcement decisions that will affect Trump Inc’s bottom line. Such conflicts of interest will not go unnoticed Mr Mr Trump’s opponents. He already faces 75 pending civil law suits, with the first courtroom drama opening in two weeks.

还有特朗普五花八门的商业利益。这是我们未知的领域。特朗普将把自己帝国的控制权置于一项“保密信托”(blind trust)之下，该信托将由他的三个子女——伊万卡(Ivanka)、埃里克(Eric)和小唐纳德(Donald Jr)——负责。这里显然不存在任何保密。三人也都在彭斯忙于为他们父亲的政府招兵买马的团队中担任领导职务，而特朗普政府作出的监管、税收和执法决策也将影响“特朗普公司”(Trump Inc)的最终盈亏。这样的利益冲突不会不被特朗普的对手注意到。他已面临75项待决的民事诉讼案，第一场庭审大戏将于两周后开幕。

The spectre of a rapid public souring on Mr Trump will put a question mark over everything he does. How quickly the backlash comes may depend on whether he was serious in promising a big infrastructure bill. If well crafted, it could boost middle America. Most Republicans have strongly opposed similar proposals in the past.

迅速失去民心这一挥之不去的前景将给特朗普做的一切都打上问号。反弹何时出现可能取决于他是否认真兑现大型基础设施法案。如果起草得当的话，该法案可能提振美国中产阶级。大多数共和党人过去都曾强烈反对类似的提议。

It also depends on whether Mr Trump keeps his promise to preserve entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, which most Republicans want to cut. Much of Mr Trump’s base relies on government assistance to make ends meet.

何时出现反弹还取决于特朗普能否信守承诺，维持一些基本福利，如多数共和党人希望削减的联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)和社会保障计划(Social Security)。特朗普选民基础中的许多人依赖政府援助来维持生计。

Mr Pence’s mediating role with Capitol Hill will be critical. Will Mr Trump submit to the orthodox conservative agenda? Or will he try to bend Washington to his will?

彭斯与国会沟通的角色将至关重要。特朗普会屈服于正统保守的议程吗?或者，他会尝试让华盛顿屈从自己的意志吗?

The answer is some of both. Congress will almost certainly embrace a big tax cut. Passing spending bills will be far harder. Mr Trump is obsessed with his poll numbers. When they fall, he will begin to strain on the leash.

答案是两者都有。国会几乎肯定会支持大幅减税计划。但通过开支法案将困难得多。特朗普痴迷于自己的支持率。当支持率下降时，他将开始在压力下奋力一搏。

His Trumpian inner circle will be ready with another agenda. On Saturday, Marine Le Pen, the far right French presidential hopeful, accepted an invitation from Stephen Bannon, head of Mr Trump’s campaign, “to work together”. Mr Bannon, who is tipped as Mr Trump’s White House chief of staff, is a radically different figure to Mr Pence. It was Mr Bannon who framed Mr Trump’s hardline (Le Pen-iste?) election campaign.

特朗普的核心圈将为另一项议程做好准备。上周六，有望赢得法国总统大选的极右翼人士马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)接受了特朗普竞选活动负责人斯蒂芬•班农(Stephen Bannon)“进行合作”的邀请。被认为将出任特朗普白宫幕僚长的班农是一个与彭斯截然不同的人物。正是班农为特朗普制定了奉行强硬路线(勒庞式?)的竞选策略。

The US and the world should dig in for an unending struggle between the tamed Mr Trump and his dangerous alter ego. Mr Trump, alone, cannot fix it.

美国和世界应对被驯服的特朗普与其危险的另一面之间无休止的斗争严阵以待。特朗普一个人无法搞定。