在“人格分裂”的中国经济中，投资人怎么办

BEIJING — Weijian Shan, chief executive of the Hong Kong fund management firm PAG, says the global economy is dangerous for investors these days. Years of easy money from central banks have helped inflate the prices of just about everything an investor can buy, like stocks or property.

北京——香港基金管理公司太盟投资集团(PAG)首席执行官单伟建说，全球经济状况目前对投资者来说有危险。中央银行多年来的宽松货币政策助涨了投资者能够购买的像股票或物业这样的几乎所有东西的价格。

“I think that clearly we are in an asset bubble,” Mr. Shan said in a phone interview from Hong Kong.

“我认为，我们明显地处于一个资产泡沫之中，”单伟建在香港接受电话采访时说。

So what should investors do? Mr. Shan recommended a return to the basics. His firm, with $16 billion under management in funds that specialize in fields like private equity and real estate, is looking for value in areas still growing in a sluggish world economy.

那投资者该怎么办呢?单伟建的建议是回到基础上去。他的公司管理着160亿美元的基金，善长于私募股权和房地产等专业领域，在世界经济低迷的情况下，公司在仍有增长的领域寻求价值。

“We are not chasing bubbles as many of our peers do,” said Mr. Shan, a former professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. “I only want to look at the fundamentals. I want to know how much money this business makes.”

单伟建曾在位于费城的宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院担任教授，他说：“我们不像许多同行那样在追踪泡沫。我只想看基础的东西。我想知道这家公司赚多少钱。”

In that, Mr. Shan is positioned well. PAG focuses mainly on investments in or related to Asia, where the fortunes of China, India and other countries remain buoyant even as the global economy sags.

在这点上，单伟建已经准备好了。太盟投资集团主要关注在亚洲或与亚洲相关的投资，尽管全球经济下滑，但亚洲的中国、印度和其他国家的发展趋势仍然保持旺盛。

“If you look around the world, Asia is where the growth is,” he said.

“如果你环顾一下世界，(你会看到)亚洲是增长的地方，”他说。

Mr. Shan said that China, where he was born, “is the most interesting market because of its growth.”

单伟建出生在中国，他说中国“是最有意思的市场，因为它仍在增长”。

But that growth has declined. In the third quarter, China’s gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent, in contrast with the 9 percent to 10 percent the country enjoyed for years. The downturn has intensified the struggles of what Mr. Shan called China’s “bad economy” — mainly manufacturing and heavy industries, which have too many factories and too much debt.

但这种增长的速度已经有所下降。中国第三季度的国内生产总值增长了6.7%，与多年来9%到10%的增长率有明显差异。经济增长放缓加剧了单伟建称之为中国的“坏经济”的困境，这主要是指产能过剩、债务沉重的制造业和重工业。

Mr. Shan, however, also sees a “good economy” in China. As the government tries to shift the country’s engine of growth away from investing in steel mills and apartment blocks, it is encouraging more private consumption. That is opening opportunities in areas that cater to Chinese consumers.

但随着政府试图将中国的增长动力从投资钢铁厂和公寓楼转向鼓励更多的私人消费，单伟建也在中国看到一个“好经济”。这种经济给迎合中国消费者的行业带来了机会。

“China has a split personality at this moment,” Mr. Shan said. But “the good economy remains quite resilient in spite of the bad economy.”

“中国经济此刻具有双重性，”单伟建说。“虽然坏经济仍然存在，但好经济保持着相当的适应力。”

Mr. Shan, who once served as a senior partner at the investment firm TPG, is focusing his money on companies that can benefit from China’s rising consumerism. In October, PAG’s private-equity arm invested an undisclosed amount in the Paradise Group, based in Singapore, which operates restaurants across China and Southeast Asia.

单伟建曾在美国投资公司德克萨斯州太平洋投资集团(TPG)担任资深合伙人，他正把投资的重点集中到能够从中国不断增长的消费中受益的公司上来。今年10月，PAG的私募股权部门对新加坡的乐天餐饮集团(Paradise Group)投了一笔未披露的资金，该集团在中国和东南亚经营饭馆。

In August, it spent about $250 million to acquire Golden Apple, which runs a chain of private schools from Chengdu, China’s western metropolis.

今年8月，公司花了约2.5亿美元收购了金苹果，这家机构在中国西部大都市成都经营私立连锁学校。

In its most prominent deal, PAG in April joined Apex Technology, a Chinese producer of ink cartridge components, and others in the acquisition of the printer maker Lexmark International, based in Kentucky, a transaction valued at $3.6 billion. The deal was appealing to PAG, in part because the new owners hope to raise the profile of Lexmark printers in the Chinese marketplace.

PAG最重要的一笔交易发生在今年4月，公司与中国墨盒组件生产商珠海艾派克科技(Apex Technology)及其他公司一起，收购了总部设在肯塔基州的打印机制造商利盟国际(Lexmark International)，这笔交易的估价为36亿美元。这笔交易对PAG有吸引力，部分原因是公司的新股东希望提高利盟打印机在中国市场的地位。

Mr. Shan also wants to take advantage of some of Asia’s bad economy. With debt levels continuing to rise in China, PAG is developing a strategy for buying and profiting from bad loans at Chinese banks. He also says his firm has generated good returns from buying distressed debt backed by real estate in the region. PAG, which has 30 percent of its capital in real estate, is still sniffing around for reasonably priced property as well.

单伟建也想利用亚洲坏经济的一些方面。随着中国债务水平持续上升，PAG正在制定一个购买中国银行不良贷款并从中获利的策略。他还表示，他的公司通过购买由该地区的房地产作抵押的不良债务已经获得了良好的回报。PAG资产的30%在房地产，公司仍然在寻找价格合理的物业。

“We invest in real estate where the price is not out of whack,” he said.

“我们在价格不出格的地方投资房地产，”单伟建说。

“It is in times like this that you really can differentiate among investors who will be more focused on fundamentals,” he said, “who invests along with the rest of the bandwagon.”

他说，“在这样的时候，你才真正能把那些将更专注于基本面的投资者与其他那些搭便车的投资者区别开来。”