中国房地产市场是个泡沫吗？

The global economic recovery has drawn support from a swift rebound in China. Now, investors and economists wonder whether a bursting Chinese property bubble could put China's economy in a bind.
中国经济迅速反弹支撑了全球经济复苏。如今，投资者和经济学家们都想知道，中国房地产泡沫一旦破裂，会不会让中国经济陷入困境。

Over the past week, China's cabinet has announced measures aimed at cracking down on property speculators, including tougher down-payment requirements for second and third homes. This comes after China reported an 11.7% rise in urban home prices last month from a year earlier, its fastest gain in five years.
过去一周，中国国务院宣布了打击房地产投机的“国十条”，包括为二套房和三套房设定更高的首付比例。这一举措出台之前，中国宣布上个月城市房价同比上涨11.7%，为五年来最大同比涨幅。

'This is the critical policy point that finally cracks the Chinese property market,' declared Morgan Stanley China strategist Jerry Lou.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国市场策略师娄冈(Jerry Lou)说，这是至关重要的政策切入点，最终给了中国房地产市场一击。

All this could be seen as bolstering the case for short-seller James Chanos. The name of Mr. Chanos's $6 billion hedge fund, Kynikos Associates LP, means 'cynic' in Greek-appropriate since the New York-based money manager earlier this year made himself the world's best-known cynic when it comes to China's growth story.
这一切可以看作是支持了做空大师查诺斯(James Chanos)的观点。查诺斯的对冲基金Kynikos Associates LP规模为60亿美元，基金的名字在希腊语中意思是“愤世嫉俗”──这个意思很贴切，因为这位纽约资本经营者今年早些时候凭借对中国经济增长方面的论断成为全球知名的愤世嫉俗者。

'What we're talking about is a world-class, if not the, world-class property bubble,' Mr. Chanos said in an interview with Charlie Rose, comparing conditions in Chinese cities to Dubai and Miami. He predicts the bubble will begin to unravel later this year.
查诺斯接受著名电视节目主持人查理•罗斯(Charlie Rose)采访时说，我们所说的是一次世界级的房地产泡沫，如果算不上世界最大的房地产泡沫的话。他将中国各大城市的状况比作迪拜和迈阿密。他预计中国的泡沫将在今年晚些时候开始破裂。

Mr. Chanos argues that China's lending spree during the financial crisis has pumped too much money into real estate, and that housing prices have surpassed affordability.
查诺斯认为，中国在金融危机期间的放贷狂潮向房地产行业注入了过多资金，房价已经超过人们的承受能力。

Among the counter-arguments: China's growing wealth feeds a long-term demand to upgrade the country's housing stock, and regulators put a tight cap on loan-to-value ratios, limiting the downside of any bubble. Some note that China's government, using measures such as those announced in the last week, has long avoided a crash in housing prices.
与之相对的论点包括：中国的有钱人越来越多，助长了改善住房的长期需求，同时监管机构严控贷款成数，限制了泡沫的负面影响。一些人指出，中国政府利用种种措施（诸如上周宣布的），长期以来避免了房价暴跌。

Those inclined to favor Mr. Chanos's analysis-or who at least believe that some kind of correction is likely-could try to emulate his strategy. He is betting on a decline in the price of Hong Kong-listed Chinese property developers and other companies linked to China's property market, such as those exporting cement and copper to China.
如果赞同查诺斯的分析──或是至少相信有可能出现某种程度的调整──可以试试仿效他的策略。查诺斯正在做空在香港上市的中国房地产开发商以及与中国房市有关的其他公司，比如向中国出口水泥和铜的公司。

However, he hasn't specified company names and didn't reply to a request for information on his positions.
不过，查诺斯没有透露具体的公司名称，也没有回应提供头寸信息的要求。

Below are three companies that reflect exposure to the China property story. All three trade in Hong Kong, making them accessible to international investors. There's no evidence that Mr. Chanos has a position in any of them. But those who believe China's property market is heading for further trouble might consider shunning them from their portfolios, or taking a short position on them-that is, selling borrowed shares with a view to buying them back at a lower price. (Of course, those who take the opposite view might look for opportunities to pick them up on the cheap.)
以下三家公司与中国房地产市场息息相关。三家公司均在香港上市，可供外国投资者交易。没有证据显示查诺斯拥有任何一家公司的头寸。不过认为中国房产市场将步入困境者可以考虑避免在投资组合中包括这些公司，或者做空它们──即出售借来的股份以在更低的价位买回。（当然，持相反看法的人或许可以寻求趁低吸纳的机会。）

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. is a highly indebted company with broad market exposure and aggressive, expansion-minded management, qualities that make it vulnerable to an earnings shortfall.
恒大地产集团有限公司(Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd.)：这是一家拥有高负债、宽敞口的公司，风格激进，强调扩张。这些特点使它很容易出现利润短缺。

Evergrande continued its rapid expansion last year, growing its land bank by 30%. It had a difficult time bringing its Nov. 2009 initial public offering to market, and since listing, its shares have dropped by about a third. It's also gone back to the capital markets quickly for more cash, paying a hefty 13% interest rate on $1.35 billion of U.S. dollar bonds issued in January and April this year that come due in 2015. Its shares trade at 40.4 times 2009 earnings and 5.9 times 2010 expected earnings, a wide gap indicating the volatility of its earnings stream.
恒大地产在去年继续快速扩张，土地储备数量增长30%。2009年11月举行首次公开募股时遭遇不顺，而自上市以来，其股价已经跌去约三分之一。后来它很快又回到资本市场筹集更多现金，在今年1月份和4月份发行了13.5亿美元的美元债券，债券到期时间在2015年，利率高达13%。相对于2009年利润的市盈率为40.4倍，相对于2010年预期利润的市盈率为5.9倍，在这个巨大的差别中，恒大地产利润的波动性可见一斑。

Agile Property Holdings Ltd. is a play on Hainan, a free-wheeling, tropical island off China's southern coast that is in many ways China's Miami.
雅居乐地产控股有限公司(Agile Property Holdings Ltd)：海南题材的体现者。海南是中国南方一个生活闲散的热带岛屿，从很多方面来看都可以说是中国版的迈阿密。

A lush environment and nice beaches make it a playground for new-money Chinese and a prime target for speculators betting on luxury properties. In March's property price data, two cities in Hainan, Sanya and Haikou, set the fastest pace, rising 53.9% and 52.1% respectively. The Chinese government helped spark the speculative fever by laying out plans in January to build Hainan into an international tourist destination.
草木葱茏的环境和宜人的海滩，使海南成为了中国新富阶层的乐土和豪宅炒客的首选目标。3月份数据显示，海南三亚和海口的房价涨幅为全国最高，分别达到53.9%和52.1%。中国政府在1月份出台规划，要把海南建成国际旅游岛，一定程度上起到了引燃投机浪潮的作用。

Agile has close to 30% of its landbank and 2010 contracted sale tied up in a single project, Hainan Clearwater Bay, according to Royal Bank of Scotland analysts, tying Agile's fortunes closely to Hainan's fate. Its shares are trading at 15.1 times 2009 actual earnings and 9.8 times 2010 expected earnings.
苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的分析师们表示，雅乐居的土地储备和2010年预售合同中，有30%都同一个项目有关，即海南清水湾。这让雅乐居的命运同海南的命运紧密地联系在一起。雅乐居相对于2009年实际利润的市盈率是15.1倍，相对于2010年预期利润的市盈率为9.8倍。

Fueling much of the boom in property prices has been easy money from Chinese state lenders. China's government pushed banks to lend record volumes of credit during the global financial crisis to keep the economy moving, some of which could go bad in a property crisis.
房价上涨在很大程度上是中国国有银行的充裕资金造成的。在全球金融危机期间，中国政府推动银行发放了规模空前的贷款，以保持经济持续运转。如果房地产市场发生危机，一部分贷款有可能沦为坏账。

China Construction Bank Corp. is the country's top mortgage lender and a major lender to infrastructure projects. Its residential mortgage book grew 41.4% last year.
中国建设银行(China Construction Bank Corp.)：中国最大的抵押贷款商，也是基础设施领域的一个重要贷款人。去年其住房抵押贷款规模增长了41.4%。

Of the 1.54 trillion yuan ($225.61 billion) in infrastructure loans on its books, 351 billion yuan were made in 2009. Both loan categories could come under stress if there is weakness in the property sector and borrowers have trouble repaying. Many local governments and their investment arms depend heavily on land sales for revenue and could default on loans if that income stream dries up. A deteriorating balance sheet could be enough to offset the earnings boost that CCB and other Chinese banks enjoy from a central bank-mandated spread between lending and deposit rates. Its shares trade at 11.1 times 2009 earnings and 8.1 times 2010 expected earnings, roughly in line with peers.
建行资产负债表上1.54万亿元（合2,256.1亿美元）的基础设施贷款中，有3,510亿元是在2009年发放的。如果楼市陷入疲软、借款人发生还款困难，那么两类贷款都有可能承受压力。很多地方政府及其投资机构的收入严重依赖于土地销售，如果这个收入来源陷入枯竭，它们的贷款就有可能发生违约。建行和其他中资银行的资产负债表如果出现恶化，它们从央行强制规定的存贷款息差当中获得的利润增长，或许足以被完全抹去。建行相对于2009年利润的市盈率为11.1倍，相对于2010年预期利润的市盈率为8.1倍，与同行大体相当。