报告：中国关注北极冰层融化战略意义

China has started paying attention to the strategic implications of the melting of Arctic ice and could seek a more active role in regulating use of the region, a new report said yesterday.

昨日一份新公布的报告显示，中国已开始关注北极冰层融化的战略意义，并可能在监管对该地区的利用方面寻求发挥更积极作用。

The findings of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's paper indicate that the Arctic could emerge as another area in which China starts defining global strategic interests, following investments in Africa and moves to build a presence in the Indian Ocean.

斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)这份报告的研究结果显示，北极地区可能成为中国着手界定自己全球战略利益的另一块区域——在这之前，中国已在非洲进行了投资，并采取行动在印度洋确立自己的存在。

SIPRI said the prospect of the Arctic being navigable during summer months had driven Beijing to allocate more funds for polar research, and scholars were pushing the government to develop an Arctic strategy.

SIPRI表示，北极地区夏季期间可通航的前景，已促使北京方面为极地研究拨出更多资金，学术界人士也在敦促政府制定北极战略。

“Because China's economy is reliant on foreign trade, there are substantial commercial implications if shipping routes are shortened during the summer months each year,” the report said. Taking the Northern route through an ice-free Arctic could cut the trip from Shanghai to Hamburg by 6,400km compared with the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal and piracy-induced high insurance costs could be avoided.

该报告称：“鉴于中国经济对外贸的依赖，如果航线在每年夏季的几个月里能够缩短，那对中国来说将具有重大商业意义。”从上海到汉堡的航程，若取道北线穿过无冰的北极地区，将比途径马六甲海峡和苏伊士运河缩短6400公里，还可省却为防范海盗而支付的高昂保险费用。

A potential strategic interest of China could be in the extraction of natural resources of the Arctic, the report said.

报告表示，中国的潜在战略利益之一，可能在于开采北极地区的自然资源。

Linda Jakobson, author of the report, said although China had a strong polar research programme, Beijing had yet to research the economic and security implications of an ice-free Arctic as it was “wary that active overtures would cause alarm in other countries due to China's size and status as a rising global power”.

报告作者琳达•雅各布森(Linda Jakobson)表示，虽然中国有着强大的极地研究计划，但北京方面尚未研究无冰北极的经济和安全意义，因为它“担心采取积极姿态会引起其它国家的警觉，这是由中国的规模和其作为新兴全球大国的地位所致”。

But a small group of vocal scholars have started looking at the Arctic from a political perspective, identifying threats and opportunities for China in the region. “China is particularly wary of Russia and whether it might demand high passage fees which could erase some or most of the potential efficiency gains,” Ms Jakobson told the FT. Geographic and political factors made the strategic situation in the Arctic “much more complicated” than the Antarctic.

但一小批敢言的学者已开始从政治视角审视北极，识别中国在该地区面临的威胁和机遇。雅各布森向英国《金融时报》表示：“中国尤其警惕俄罗斯的态度，以及俄罗斯是否会收取高昂的北极通行费，抹掉部分甚至大部分潜在的效率增益。”地理和政治因素使得北极地区的战略形势较南极地区要“复杂得多”。

In spite of the low-key official attitude, Ms Jakobson believes that Beijing has an agenda in the Arctic, including the adjustment of international laws such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the new situation and the hope for permanent observership in the Arctic Council, a regional governmental body.

尽管中国官方采取了低调姿态，但雅各布森相信，北京方面拥有自己的北极议程，包括修订相关的国际法以适应新的形势，例如《联合国海洋法公约》(United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea)；并希望在区域性的政府间机构北极理事会(Arctic Council)获得永久观察员身份。

译者/汪洋