伯南克：短期内不会加息

US interest rates would remain at exceptionally low levels for an “extended period” in spite of the “nascent” economic recovery, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, told Congress yesterday.

美联储主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日告诉国会，美国利率在“一段长时间内”将保持在极低水平，尽管美国经济“初步”复苏。

Mr Bernanke painted a relatively gloomy picture of the economy, which is still struggling in the wake of the crisis, with high unemployment and a weak housing market. This meant inflationary pressures – the main driver of tighter monetary policy – were likely to remain “subdued”, he added.

伯南克描绘了一幅相对黯淡的经济景象：在危机过后，经济依然在艰难挣扎，失业率高企，住宅市场疲弱。他表示，这意味着通胀压力（收紧货币政策的主要动因）可能保持“缓和”。

“The Federal Open Market Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilisation, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,” Mr Bernanke told the House financial services committee.

“联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)仍然预期，根据经济形势——包括资源利用率较低、通胀趋势缓和、通胀预期稳定——在一段长时间内，联邦基金利率可能应当保持在极低水平，”伯南克向众议院金融服务委员会表示。

Mr Bernanke's insistence that rate rises are still months away will damp fears that last week's increase in the discount rate – at which commercial banks can borrow emergency cash from the central bank – from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent is a precursor to a swifter tightening of monetary policy.

伯南克坚称加息还是几个月后的事，这将冲淡上周提高贴现率所引起的担忧。当时美联储把贴现率从0.5%上调至0.75%，人们以为这是加快收紧货币政策的预兆。贴现率是商业银行向美联储紧急贷款的利率。

Fed officials – including Mr Bernanke yesterday – have indicated that it was simply a move to unwind emergency liquidity measures put in place during the crisis, as a result of improving conditions in the financial markets – and not a tightening move. Economists at Goldman Sachs said it was “crystal clear” the Fed did not anticipate raising rates in the near future.

美联储官员已经表示，此举不过是因为金融市场形势好转，美联储要退出在危机期间实施的紧急流动性措施，而并不是一项紧缩行动。昨日伯南克也作了同样的表示。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家表示，“十分清楚”，美联储不打算在近期内加息。

Nevertheless, the Fed this month began to lay out its vision for the sequence of measures it expects to take to shrink the money supply once the economic recovery is sufficiently strong. Although the economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, economists are expecting the pace of growth to slow over the course of the year. The Fed is expecting growth of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent this year.

不过，美联储本月已开始展望，一旦经济复苏势头足够稳健，它准备依次采取哪些措施来收紧货币供应。尽管去年末季美国经济以年率计算增长了5.7%，但经济学家预计今年美国经济增长将趋缓。美联储目前预计，今年经济将增长3%至3.5%。